Floods, Reef Loss and Migration: Asia's Future on a Hotter Planet
by Thin Lei Win
July 14, 2017: Bangkok (Reuters) – A new report by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) outlines the dramatic changes Asia-Pacific nations would face - if measures to curb climate change and adapt to its effects are too slow and unambitious to keep global warming within agreed limits.
If the world carries on emitting greenhouse gases as now, and international cooperation to limit climate change fails, average temperatures will rise by over 4°C, compared with pre-industrial times by the end of the century, the report warned.
Here are some of the potential impacts it projects.
All coral reef systems in Asia-Pacific would collapse, due to mass coral bleaching with a 4°C rise.  This could lead to losses of almost $58 billion in reef-related fisheries in Southeast Asia between 2000 and 2050.
Even if global warming is limited to 2°C, as pledged in the Paris climate pact, almost all coral reefs are expected to experience severe bleaching.
Sea level may rise by 1.4 meters (4.6 feet) if temperatures increase by 4°C.
19 of the 25 cities most exposed to a 1-meter sea-level rise globally are located in Asia-Pacific, 7 of them in the Philippines alone.
Indonesia would be the Asian country worst-affected by coastal flooding, with about 6 million people expected to be hit each year until 2100.
With a 4°C temperature rise, annual precipitation is expected to increase by up to 50% over most land areas in the region, while some nations like Pakistan and Afghanistan may experience a 20-50% decline in rainfall.
Of the top 20 cities with the largest projected increase in annual flood losses between 2005 and 2050, 13 are in Asia - including China, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand and Japan.
Rice yields in some Southeast Asian countries could decline by up to 50% by 2100, if no climate change adaptation efforts are made.
Heat-related deaths among people aged over 65 could rise by 52,000 cases annually by 2050.
The 6 places particularly prone to future migration linked to climate change are Bangladesh, Philippines, China, the Mekong Delta in Vietnam, the Indus Delta in Pakistan, and small island states in the Pacific.
Sources: ADB, PIK, World Health Organization
news.trust.org/item/20170714030350-p6hs8/