data

Data

Below are files - data sets - mostly in Excel (XLS) format. See another webpage, "US Temp Data" for data about summer daily high temperatures in US places.

The files on this webpage are arranged in 11 groups: CO2, Drought, Food, Ice, Permafrost, Sea Level, Energy, Electricity, Oil & Gas, Transport, and Global Temperatures.
Date of publication or most recent data year is shown for some.

Diagrams are generally immediately below the summary articles from which they were taken.

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GO TO.Albedo. .CO2-Food. .Water. .Energy. .Temps-Global.

Future CO2 GT, PPM, ∆°C, SLR, by Gene Fry (Dec. 2018 edition)
This is the spreadsheet model underlying the results shown below. An annotated version of the 4 graphs is shown below them.

Note that stopping human CO2 emissions (indeed GHG emissions) is only enough to hold eventual warming to 5°C. But failing to stop them now is worse, much more than the difference between 1.5 and 2.0°C. At 5°C warming, civiization starts to fall apart very noticeably. Food supplies would be cut in half and fresh water becomes scarce almost everywhere. Unless we end carbon emissions soon AND remove most GHGs we have put in the air, Earth’s carrying capacity will shrink a lot. Then human population will probably fall well below 1 billion. It would be concentrated in Antarctica, Siberia, the Canadian Arctic, Alaska, and Greenland. The population decline will be very messy (wars, famine, etc.)

The only way to keep temperatures to tolerable levels is stop putting GHGs in the air soon AND remove most of the CO2 we have put in the air. Even that will likely not be enough to hit 2° on the way back down until well after 2400. Solar radiation management may provide a way to get the rest of the way back down to 2°.

About 39% of the atmospheric warming observed since 1975 is due to albedo changes. That includes 22% from cuts in our sulfur emissions, 11% from snow melting earlier in the spring, 6% from reduced Arctic sea ice area, and less than 1% from reductions in area covered by land ice. Feedbacks from more water vapor in the air and from cloud cover changes due to these 4 albedo changes are included in these %’s. The water vapor and cloud feedbacks account for 41% of the 39%,(i.e., 16% of observed warming since 1975) . Water vapor feedbacks are also included in the direct warming from greenhouse gases such as CO2, which account for the remaining 61% of the warming since 1975.

In the future, the fraction of warming from albedo changes and their feedbacks will grow, as the fraction from additional greenhouse gases shrinks

Albedo Changes

Coverage - World Cloud, N Hemi Snow, Arctic Ice - 30+ years of data & regression analysis trends by year and ∆°C.

Mean northern snow cover is 25 million sq km. This is 2.5 times ice cover, and at lower latitudes. This yields higher mean sun angles, for greater effect.

Chan et al. (2016) estimated that altered northern hemisphere snow cover timing from 1982 to 2013 cut snow’s radiative forcing (cooling) effect by 0.12 W per square meter. Dividing by the warming during that period yields 0.21 W / sq m / °C in lost cooling effect.

Future snow coverage will decline as the land surface warms. Future snow cover shrinkage is modeled by using analog cities: cities at about the same longitude and distance from oceans, progressively farther south.

For example, Winnipeg snow cover days analogs are Fargo, Sioux Falls, Omaha, & Kansas City. As warming proceeds, Winnipeg snow days fall, to Omaha’s & even to zero, if winters there are warm enough (global ∆ = 8°C). Shown below are the data for some of the analog cities. +3°C, +5°C and +7°C are local temperatures. They correspond roughly to 2, 3, and 4°C GLOBAL warming at the land surface.

Writ large, modeled future snow cover is governed by local temperature in this way, plus a small amount for timing changes.

Northern Sea Ice Extent, 2002-21, daily

Antarctic Sea Ice Extent, by month since late 1978

Regressions of Arctic Sea Ice Volume, by Month

Arctic Sea Ice Volume, by Month

GO TO.Top. .Albedo. .Water. .Energy. .Temps-Global.

CO2

CO2 by Nation by Year, 1750-2019 (Carbon Tracker data)

CO2 by Nation, 1980-2019 & Before, with Charts (Carbon Tracker data)

CO2 by Nation, 1980-2015 (USDOE - EIA, Nov. 2017 update)

CO2 Removal Quantity & Price, over Future Time, Summary - NAS 0215

Global CO2 Emission Trends - 2013 Report - Dutch - PDF, 64 pp

CO2 by Nation, Cumulative from 1900 Note: Latest cumulative data is just embedded in graph in slide show.

2010 CO2 Emissions by Nation, by Australia

Dutch Int'l CO2 Summary thru 2008

Drought

US Drought Index by Week

US Drought Index by State

Food

World Food Prices 2005-18

Food Prices 1992-2011. Note: More recent food prices are embedded in a slide in the main PPT show.

World Food Price Indices by Month 1990-2012

Cereal Yields (kg per hectare) for Leading Nations 2008-12

Crop Response to Temp & CO2

% Crop ∆ by Locale w +CO2, °C

Livestock in China, Africa, US

World Grain Stocks 1960-2017

See also annual production of wheat, rice, corn and soybeans for China, India and the US - as an Additional Slide in that slide show. The graphs are at the top of the Food page.

GO TO.Top. .Albedo. .CO2-Food. .Energy. .Temps-Global..

Permafrost, Ice & Snow

Permafrost Articles: Summary of Quantities, etc.

Carbon per Acre, Permafrost vs Rainforest, Worksheet

Coverage - World Cloud, N Hemi Snow, Arctic Ice - 30+ years of data & regression analysis trends by year and ∆°C.

Arctic Sea Ice Extent, daily since 2002

Arctic Sea Ice Volume, by Month

Sea Level

Sea Level Rise: US Area Vulnerable to Complete Ice Melt

Sea Level Rise - Polar Melt, What If (Worst Case?) to 2100 - worksheet in progress

GO TO.Albedo. .CO2-Food. .Water. .Temps-Global.

Energy