Global Warming - So What?
A Library about Climate Change
Food
Below are articles about impacts on the food supply. Food impacts are arranged in 8 major groups: Observed Effects, Future Effects, Drought Effects, Price Effects, Crop Data, CO2 Fertilization, Flood Effects, and Misc.
Month and year follow each article's name. PDF files are so marked, after month and date, some with authors noted. Within sections, more recent files appear above older files.
Diagrams are generally immediately below the summary articles from which they were taken.
GO TO .Yields. .Observations. .Summaries: USDA+. .2. .Future 1. .2. .Drought. .Prices. .Crop Data. .CO2 Fertilization. .Floods+
Context
This video of a speech by Dr. Julian Cribb summarizes the challenge we face.
Food demand is expected to soar 100% by 2060. But we face peak water, peak land, peak oil, peak fish, and a climate penalty (by 2100) exceeding 50%: 10% crop loss for each 1°C of warming. Farming is highly vulnerable to > 2°C warming.
Groundwater mining accounts or 13% of sea level rise; it’s most acute in north China, the Ganges basin, the Middle East, and the US Great Plains, where groundwater resources may be exhausted in 15-20 years. Climate change also affects the reliability of rainfall (and snowpack).
At current rates, topsoil will be exhausted in 48-70 years. Its loss will observed as crop yields decline. Each meal costs 10 kilos of topsoil. Coming peaks (2035-2060) of soil and fertilizer phosphorus and potassium will appear as very steep food price hikes and catastrophic crop failures.
In 50-100 years, agriculture may no longer be the way we feed ourselves. Industrial hydroponic algae farming may be. We must also re-invent the global diet. Cities will completely recycle their wastes back into food.
Here are production statistics for our 4 biggest crops, from our largest producers.
Healthy Diet Means a Healthy Planet, Study Shows 1019
Role of Various Foods in Climate Change 1209 - Sweden, including transportation
www.ewg.org/meateatersguide/eat-smart/
Yields
Grain yields per acre (or hectare or square mile) have begun to plateau in major producers, starting shortly before 2000. In China, rice yields are poised to plateau.
A view across ALL cereal grains (below) for ALL leading producers suggests a worldwide yield plateau from 2008 thru 2012. A 7% increase followed in 2013, 4/5 of it from a US rebound to a record harvest.
Perhaps total production can be sustained more by adding acres.
It is not clear how much of the yield plateau was due to climate change, how much to running out of more technical changes (the green revolution), how much to groundwater depletion, and how much to other factors. Groundwater depletion follows from warming, as farmers try to maintain irrigation.
The effects of the 2012 drought in the US and the 2010 drought in Russia are visible. (Both nations had record heat.) So are the effects of the 2012 floods in Britain. The reason for the 2012 drop in Bangladesh is not clear.
Note that yields for wheat top out at 8 kilograms per hectare (Britain, France, Germany graph above), while rice yields top out at 5 (China & Japan graph above).
Thus rice growers (Bangladesh, Vietnam, India, etc.) harvest fewer kg per acre than wheat growers (France, Germany, Britain, etc.). A change in a nation's mix of crops can also affect mean yield per acre.
Many studies have bee done on crop production as a function of temperature, such as the ones below.
GO TO .Context. .Yields. .Summaries: USDA+. .2. .Future 1. .2. .Drought. .Prices. .Crop Data. .CO2 Fertilization. .Floods+
Observations (observed drought effects are 2/3 of the way down the page)
Disease, Climate Change Cut Down Brazil's Orange Yields 1023
Blueberry Collapse in Peru - Analyzing Market Impact and Consequences 1023
Olive Oil Prices Reach Record Highs, as Spain’s Harvest Is Halved 1023
Food Prices Rise with Export Limits. Blame Climate Change, Ukraine War, Niño
Searing Heat Reshapes US Food Production 0923
Driest August in over a Century Risks Worsening India’s Grain Curbs 0823
Climate Change Is Helping Pests and Diseases Destroy Our Food 0823
Heavy Rains Devastate Crops in China’s Northeastern Grain Basket 0823
Olive Oil Industry in Crisis, as Europe’s Heat Wave Threatens Another Harvest 0723
Indian Culinary Must-Have, the Tomato, Is off the Menu, as Prices Jump 400% - 0723
What’s a Georgia Summer without Peaches? Not So Sweet 0723
Climate, Environmental Change Puts 90% of World's Marine Food at Risk 0623
The Climate Crisis Is Raising Your Grocery Bills 0423
A Warmer Planet, Less Nutritious Plants and … Fewer Grasshoppers? 0423 
Plant Pandemics Threatening Global Food Supplies 0423
California’s Salmon Fishers Face Canceled Season 0423
Alaska’s Climate-Driven Fisheries Collapse Devastates Indigenous Communities 0323
With Climate Change, Crops Migrate North 1122
Egypt’s Barren Fields Are Dire Bellwether for Climate Summit 1122
Extreme Heat Is Stressing Cows, Jeopardizing Global Dairy Supply 1122
Africa’s Unreported Extreme Weather in 2022 and Climate Change 1022
West Africa Floods Destroy Crops, Worsening Hunger Fears 1022
Water Crisis Squeezes California Tomato Farmers, as Growing Costs Keep Rising 1022
‘The worst we’ve seen’ - Ranchers Threatened by Historic Heat and Drought 1022
Hotter Summers Are Baking the Water Out of Soil, at Unprecedented Rates 1022
Extreme Hunger on the Rise in the World’s Worst Climate Hot Spots 0922
US Farmers Face Plague of Pests as Global Heating Raises Soil Temperatures 0922
Hotter Summer Nights Affect Everything from Death Rates to Crop Yields to Firefighting 0822
Horn of Africa Drought Places 22 Million People at Risk of Starvation 0822
Drought and Rising Prices Are Fueling Insecurity in Kenya 0822
American Farmers Are Killing Crops and Selling Cows due to Extreme Drought 0822
Summer Nights Are Heating Up, Harming Crops and Livestock 0822
Heatflation - How Sizzling Temperatures Drive Up Food Prices 0722
Conflict, Climate Super-Charge Forces Behind African Famine, Food Insecurity 0622
49 Million People Face Famine as Ukraine War, Climate Disasters Intensify 0622
Climate Change Puts Agrivoltaic Projects in Northern Africa in the Spotlight 0522
A Heat Wave’s Lamented Victim - The Mango, India’s King of Fruits 0522
Crop Land ‘Deteriorating’ in Canada as Excess Rain Hinders Planting 0522
Climate Change Threatens China with Yet Another Deadly Flood Season 0522 - Flooding harms crops too.
Salt Scourge - The Dual Threat of Warming and Rising Salinity 0522
Wheat Can’t Catch a Break Right Now 0522 - war in Ukraine breadbasket, record heat in India, etc.
Heat to Scorch India’s Wheat Supplies, Adding Food-Shortage Worries to World 0522
Response to Rising Hunger Threatens Climate Goals 0422 - Further use of fossil fuels and an expansion of unsustainable agricultural practices could exacerbate the climate crisis and deepen poverty and food insecurity.
As Alaska Warms, Talkeetna Birch Tree Tappers Wrestle with Erratic Season 0422
China Faces Worst Crop Conditions Ever, due to Climate Change 0322
US Crop Insurance Payouts Rise Steeply, as Climate Change Worsens Droughts, Floods 0122
The Corn Belt’s Topsoil Loss Is Increasing Carbon Emissions, Lowering Yields 0122
India’s Apple Farmers Count Cost of Climate Crisis as Snow Decimates Crops 1121
Global Warming Is Destroying Crops. Can It Be Stopped in Time? 1121
How Climate Change and Extreme Weather Are Crimping America’s Pie Supply 1121 - Nitty-gritty of direct and indirect effects of climate change on each of the ingredients.
Hunger Is Getting Worse, Not Better, around the Globe 0921
Climate Change Ravaging Guatemala Crops, Leaving Millions to Face Starvation 0921
2021 Climate Disasters Raise Alarm over Food Security 0821
In Drought-Plagued Northern Mexico, 10s of 1,000s of Cows Are Starving to Death 0721
Tomatoes Will Cost More, as California Growers Reel from Extreme Weather 0721
Farmers Anticipate Worst Wheat Harvest in Years after Extreme Heat and Drought 0721
How the Drought Is Affecting California’s Crops 0721
Climate Change Triggers Rare Crop Diseases in Missouri 0721
Grasshopper Swarms Overwhelm US West 0721
‘Let the Birds Eat Them’ - Crops Shrivel as Heat Wave Hits Washington 0721
Climate Change Has Cost 7 Years of Agricultural Productivity Growth 0421 - over 60 years
How Climate Change Is Stunting Farm Production 0421
Warming Climate to Help California’s Voracious Pest and Hurt Its Nut Crops 0221 - Orangeworms attack almonds and walnuts.
Climate Change Worsens Child Malnutrition 0121
Swarm of Locusts May Blow into Brazil from Argentina 0720
New, Larger Wave of Locusts Threatens Millions in Africa 0420
Locust Swarms, Some 3 x New York City’s Size, Eat Their Way across Africa, Asia 0320
Wheat in Whitehorse - How Climate Change Helps Feed Canada's Remote Regions 0320
Focus on Food Helps Solve Climate Change 0220
Climate Change Linked to African Locust Invasion 0120
Higher Temperatures Driving 'Alarming' Levels of Hunger 1019
Climate Change Is Sapping Nutrients from Our Food, so Global Crisis Possible 0819
True Cost of Cheap Food Is Health and Climate Crises 0719
World Hunger Rises with Climate Shocks, Conflict and Economic Slumps 0719
Climate Change Compounds Hunger, Conflicts, German Aid Group Says 0619
Soggy Springs, Scorching Summers - More Heat Takes Toll on US Staple Crops 0619
Can We Grow Enough Seaweed to Help Cows Fight Climate Change? 0619
Lake Chad Farmers Pushed to ‘Tipping Point' in Climate Change Crisis 0519
Climate Change Is Already Hurting Fruit Breeders. Consumers Are Next. 0319
Italy’s Olive Harvest Dropped 57% due to Climate Change 0319
Warming Waters Heat Up Fishing Costs along India’s Malabar Coast 0219
Food Shocks Becoming More Frequent Due to Extreme Weather, Conflict 0119
Climate Change Increases Crop Specialization Risks in Midwest 0119
Climate Change Could Hit Potato Industry Hard 1218 in Canada, as temperaurs rise. It’s alread a big problem.
As Climate Change Bites in Midwest, Farmers Are Desperate to Ring the Alarm 1218
Politicians Say Nothing, but Climate Change Increasingly Terrifies US Farmers 1018 - floods & droughts in Iowa, etc.
Why Ravaging Heat Waves Matter to World’s Dinner Table 0818
Red Cross Warns of Food Crisis in North Korea, as Crops Fail in Heat 0818
Worry Grows - Climate Change to Quietly Steal Nutrients from Major Food Crops 1217
drops in iron, zinc and protein as CO2 levels rise to ~560 ppm, except for the few C4 crops: corn, sorghum, etc.
The Global Heat Wave Is about to Hit Your Wallet 0718 - wheat, cotton, power plant cooling, wildfires
Gannets Study Reveals Warm Water Lowers Nutritional Value of Fish and Squid 0718
Caffeine High? Climate-hit Ethiopia Shifts Coffee Uphill 0618
Farmers Unable to Cope with Shocks Induced by Climate Change 0518
Maple Sugar Season Faces Mounting Climate Change Pressure 0318
In Iceland, Global Warming Is No Longer a Joke 0318
Impact of Warming Seas Felt by Northeastern Fisheries 0218
Global Warming Hits Tea industry Worldwide 0218
Soaring Popularity of Grass-Fed Beef May Hit Roadblock - Less Nutritious Grass 0118 - more CO2 yields less protein
How Climate Change Is Playing Havoc With Olive Oil (and Farmers) 1017
Climate Change Creating Food Shortages across the Pacific 1017
Farming in Alaska Is Increasingly Possible 0917
The Great Nutrient Collapse - More CO2 Yields Carbs Overdose 0917
‘Flash Drought’ Could Devastate Half the High Plains Wheat Harvest 0817
Global Warming Reduces Protein in Key Crops 0817
Climate Study Offers Warnings for Florida Farmers from Global Warming 0717
Obama Sees New Front in Climate Change Battle- Agriculture 0517
Climate Change to Blame for Flat-Lining Wheat Yield Gains - CSIRO 0317
Food Production in Syria Hits All-Time Low 1116
Climate Change Threatens Japan’s Agriculture 0816 - Growing zones move north. Heat & drought in current zones.
How Southern Africa Is Coping with the Worst Global Food Crisis in 25 Years 0516
Unusual Heat Bakes Sri Lanka's Chicken Industry 0516
Climate Brings Hard Times for Tea 0416
Climate Change’s Floods & Droughts Threatening Philippines Food Security 0316
Global Warming Hits Rice Bowls 0316
Chilean Salmon under Threat 0316
Drought-Hit Ethiopia Needs Money for Seeds, as Rains Begin 0316
Pakistan’s Biggest Threat Isn’t Terrorism, It’s Climate Change 0316 - mostly droughts and floods, also sea level rise for flat Karachi
Climate Change Pushes Fish toward Poles, Threatening Food Source for Poor 0216
Decline in Bee Population is Putting Global Food Industry at Risk 0216
Russian Farmers Find Climate Change Nyet So Great 0216
Ample Grain Stocks Could Dampen Impact of El Niño / La Niña Shift 0216
Soil Productivity Cut by Climate Change, Making Societies More Marginal 0116
Cereal Harvests across the World ‘Fall by 10% in 50 Years’ 0116
Hunger Threatens Millions, as El Niño Causes Drought and Floods 1215
Climate Smart Coffee with Bananas Set to Boost East African Farmers’ Income 1215
Improving Soils Cuts Carbon and Grows More Food 1215
Earth Has Lost 1/3 of Arable Land in Past 40 Years 1215
Laos Counts Climate Change Costs - Record Floods, Drought and Landslides 1115
Climate Change Study Points to Lower Yields and Early Ripening of Grape Crops 1115
Climate Change Bites Kenyan Tea Farmers 1115
Rising Temperatures Kick-Start Subarctic Farming In Alaska 1115
Ethiopia, a Nation of Farmers, Strains under Severe Drought 1015
Does industrial Agriculture Actually Yield More Food per Acre than Organic? 1015
El Niño Threatens Food Supplies in Papua New Guinea 1015
India's Tea Estates Face Climate-Change Threat 1015
Millions Face Hunger due to Climate Change, ‘Super El Niño'- Oxfam 0915
El Niño Takes Toll on US Rice Farmers – and Points to Even Higher Prices 0915
As Drought Destroys Maize, Zimbabwe Tries Out New Staples 0915
Severe Drought, Floods Destroy Crops in Papua New Guinea Highlands 0915
Mongolia in for Double Whammy - Drought Now, Freeze-Kill Next 0915
Climate Change Threatens Food Production in Nigeria 0815
Salt Water Increasingly Attacks Vietnam’s Mekong Delta 0715
Climate Change Sparks Tension in India's Tea Gardens 0515
Troubling New Research Suggests Global Warming Will Cut Wheat Yields 0515
El Niño Could ‘Disrupt Food Markets’ 0515
El Niño Outlook Daunting for Aussie Farmers Already in Drought’s Grip 0515
Coffee Production Slipping in Tanzania as Temperatures Rise 0415
Beyond Almonds - a Rogue's Gallery of Guzzlers In California's Drought 0415
Climate Change Costs for India 0315
Yields of Key Cassava Crop Not Keeping Pace with Africa Population Growth 0315
Climate Change Threatens Staple Potato Crop in High Andes 0115
Food Diversity under Siege from Global Warming, U.N. Says 0115
Expert Says Climate Change Negatively Affecting Turkey Meat Quality 1114
China’s Parched Plains Ending Run of Record Corn Harvests 1114
Air Pollution Slashes India's Potential Grain Yields by Half 1114
Climate Change Hits Banana Farmers 1014
Climate Change Affects Vietnam's Rice Bowl 0914
Wild Relatives of Food Crops Are Endangered 0914
Shifting Climate Has North Dakota Farmers Swapping Wheat For Corn 0814
Canada’s Record Rains Cut Wheat Acreage to 3-Year Low 0714
How to Stop Climate Change Making Food Less Nutritious? 0714
Growing Pains of China's Agricultural Water Needs 0614
Inside the Looming Food Crisis 0514
T. Richard et al., from Nielsen Persihables Group at Arizona State University, via Wall Street Journal, April 15, 2014
El Niño's Threat to Major Food Crop Yields 0514
Climate Change Making Food Crops Less Nutritious 0514
Speakers Cite Climate Change’s Effect on Farms 0514
Wheat Rust Fungal Disease Threatens to Destroy World Crop 0414
Honeybee Shortage Threatens Crop Pollination in Europe 0114
India’s Dangerous Food Bubble 1213
Jolt to Complacency on Food Supply 1113
Is the IPCC Right on Climate Change? Just Ask the World's Farmers 0913
Brazil Faces Drop in Crop Productivity 0913
Crop Pests Head Polewards to Flee Heat 0913
Too Much Rain Washes Out Crops in the South 0813
Hot B.C. Summer Creates Perfect Conditions for Invasive Fruit Fly 0813
Rising Temperature, Rising Food Prices 0813 - 10% drop in yields per °C warming, etc.
Changes in Store as Ohio Warms 0813
Corn & soy yields to drop 50% by 2050. Corn belt has already moved north 100 miles in 50 years.
Climate Change Threatens Crunchy, Tart Apples 0813
Ancient Civilizations Toppled by Climate Disruption 0813
Grain Yields Have Begun to Plateau 0813
Climate Forecasts Shown to Warn of Crop Failures Months in Advance 0713
US Corn, Soy Planting Pace Slowest in 17 Years, After Wet Week 0613
How Climate Change Could Eventually End Coffee 0313
Link Between Warming Climate and Your Food 0313
Weather Changes Frustrate Nepal’s Farmers 0213
Weather Shifts Force Kentucky Farmers to Try Other Crops 1212
Higher CO2 Level Is Reducing Crop Yields for Favorite Rice Strain 1112
Climate Change Is Threat to Arabica Coffee Crops 1112
Climate Downgrade - Food Production Hit 1112
Warming Cuts Milk Production 0712
Warming Shrivels Crop Yields 1011
Climate Shifts Cut Wheat Yields 0511
GO TO .Context. .Yields. .Observations. .Summaries 2. .Future 1. .2. .Drought. .Prices. .Crop Data. .CO2 Fertilization. .Floods+.
Summaries of Observations
Climate Impacts on Agriculture - Hatfield 0411 - PDF, 20 pp. This literature review is the basis of the Agriculture chapter in the draft US National Climate Assessment.
This leads to the graphical interpretation above, based primarily on Grain Yield. The vintages of studies vary, so doubled atmospheric CO2 levels varied accordingly. The graph adjusts for vintage.
This leads to the graphical interpretation at left. Important caveats have to do with other limiting factors besides temperature - notably nitrogen and water, but also phosphorus, potassium, weeds, insects, soil carbon and acidity, etc.
Yield responses, based on June temperatures (generally in the middle of the growing season) are shown for cities in the middle of the primary growing areas.
Yields are sensitive to temperatures (and many other factors) in several months, not just June, as different events occur during the growing season. But June temperatures are at least indicative. Corresponding graphs for southern hemisphere growers (notably Brazil, Argentina, and Australia) would use December temperatures.
Winter and spring wheat are both economically important in the US, India, China, etc. An adaptation to warming already well under way is to plant winter wheat in Pakistan and northern India. But even winter in Delhi is warm (mean temperature 60-65°F, much warmer than San Diego or San Antonio).
GO TO .Context. .Yields. .Observations. .Summaries: USDA+. .Future 1. .2. .Drought. .Prices. .Crop Data. .CO2 Fertilization. .Floods+
More Observations & Summaries
Warming Hurts African Crops, Interacts with Rain 0311
Coffee Yields Plummet As Climate Warms 0311
Warmer Weather Drives Crops Northward 1010
Rice Yield Growth Rates Falling as World Warms 0810
Rice Response to Warm Nights - Welch 0810 - PDF
The PPT slide below summarizes conclusions by Welch (here), Ainsworth, Peng, and Lobell (all below), and others.
The following can also be said, based on these and other studies.
Even Slow Warming Could Halve Crop Yields 0909
Crops Fall w Slow Warm, Supplement - Schlenker 0909 - PDF
Crops Yields Fall Even with Slow Warming - Schlenker 0909 - PDF
The following PPT slide summizes Schlenker & Roberts' work.
Rice re CO2, O3, Temp - Ainsworth 0308 - PDF
Rice Yields Fall 10+% per 1°C Night Warming - Peng 0704 - PDF
17% Fall in Corn & Soybean Yields per 1°C Warming in US - Lobell 0203 - PDF
GO TO .Context. .Yields. .Observations. .Summaries: USDA+. .2. .Future 2. .Drought. .Prices. .Crop Data. .CO2 Fertilization. .Floods+
Future Impacts 1
Corn Harvests in the Yukon? Will Climate Change Turn Wilderness into Farms? 1023
Wild Rice Survival Threatened by Warming, More Rain in Northern Minnesota 0823
As Simultaneous Crop Failures Threaten Food System Collapse, Plutocrats vs Us 0723 - The year is approaching when simultaneous crop failures will happen in Europe, North American and China and/or India. The very rich will eat well, while the poor and middle suffer, as it has been for centuries.
The IPCC’s Latest Climate Report Is a Final Alarm for Food Systems, Too 0323
Global Seaweed Industry Could Reduce Land for Farming by 1.1 Million Km2 - 0123
Marine Heat Waves Could Wipe Out Fish Stocks 1022
Falling Crop Yields with Warming Could See Rapid Decline in Bioenergy Potential 0922
Mideast Nations Wake Up to Damage from Climate Change 0722 - crop losses up to 30% by 2025 and GDP losses of 6-14% by 2050
Pollen and Heat - a Looming Challenge for Global Agriculture 0622 - More heat can incapacitate pollen from doing its job.
Climate Change Likely to Slow Plant Growth in Northern Hemisphere 0622
Food Shocks Will Also Destabilize the ESG World 0522
Salt Scourge - The Dual Threat of Warming and Rising Salinity 0522
Climate Change Could Significantly Impact Commercial Fishing 0422
Our Food System Isn't Ready for the Climate Crisis 0422 - We have selected the “best” variety out of many and monocropped it. New pests and weeds, drought,etc. can wipe our entire consumption of bananas, wheat, corn, avocados, coffee and more. We must cherish the diversity of original varieties, so we can restart the crops when our favorite varieties are wiped out, by climate change or otherwise.
Complex Models Now Project Alarming Impact of Climate Change on Global Food Production 0322
Farmers’ Report - Climate Crisis Puts Australia’s Food Supply at Increasing Risk 0322
What to Expect from the World’s 6th Mass Extinction 0122 - Emphasis is on loss of pollinators pollinated crops account for maybe 1/4 of the crops in a healthy diet, especially fruit, veggies and nuts. Also, loss of soil quality if critical microorganisms die off. Water shortages (and flooding) will compound the problems.
Warming Temperatures Threaten Greece's Prized Olive Oil 1221
Warmer Winters Can Wreak as Much Havoc as Hotter Summers 1221
Amid Drought, Conflict, and Rocketing Prices, a Global Food Crisis Looms 1221
Climate Change Agricultural Impacts to Heighten Inequality 1221 - Production to fall for maize but rise for wheat.
World Faces Growing Risk of Food Shortages due to Climate Change 0921
Grain Production Depends on Ending Deforestation 0821 in Brazil
Hungry for Solutions 0621 - Concentrations of protein, iron, and zinc are 3% to 17% lower when crops are grown in environments where CO2 concentrations are 550 parts per million (ppm)—the projected level by 2050 if emissions continue at current rates—compared with crops grown under current atmospheric conditions of CO2 concentrations near 400 ppm.
Tea-Growing Areas to Be Badly Hit if Global Heating Intensifies 0521
Russia’s Far North Could Be Arable in 20-30 Years as Permafrost Melts? 0521 - But soils may be too poor for warmi ng to do much good.
Will Rising Temperatures Make Rice Too Toxic? 1220
Will Rising Temperatures Make Superweeds Even Stronger? 1220
Climate Change Could Make Swathes of Farmland Largely Useless in U.S. South 1020
Climate Change Will Continue to Widen Gaps in Food Security 1020
Rising Temperatures Put Heat on Nebraska's $7 Billion Corn Industry 0920
Unless We Change Course, the US Agricultural System Could Collapse 0820 - Water vanishes with the Sierra snowpack in America’s sald bowl. Soil vanishes with heavier rainstorms in America’s breadbasket. Fertilizer problems too.
India’s Food Bowl Heads toward Desertification 0820
Climate Change Forces Farmers to Choose Low Yields or Unstable Returns 0720
Climate Change May Double the Risk of Breadbasket Failures 0520 
A 2nd US Dust Bowl Would Hit World Food Stocks 0320
U.S. Food Trade Increasingly Leans on Unsustainable Groundwater 0120
West’s ‘Dust Bowl’ Future Now ‘Locked In’, as World Risks Imminent Food Crisis 1219
Climate Change Could Cut Fruit Production by Almost 1/3 - 1219
Projected changes in yields of several crops worldwide as a function of global warming (relative to pre-industrial temperatures) in the absence of adaptation. Best estimates and likely uncertainty ranges are shown.
Local ∆ (+°C) for Low Latitudes
Mid-High Latitudes
from
Climate Stabilization Targets by US National Academy of Sciences, late 2011 (on Overviews web page)
Below are 2 graphs drawn from John Holdren's slides (also available on Overviews page).
Will Rice Survive Climate Change? 1219
Canadians Will Pay More for Food Next Year, Thanks to Climate Change 1219
Indoor Farming May Not Be the Easy Answer to Feeding a Hot and Hungry Earth 1119
Ocean Could Provide over 6 Times More Food than It Does Today 1119
Thirsty Future Ahead as Climate Change Explodes Plant Growth 1119
Climate Change Could Leave Southern Britain ‘Unable’ to Support Crops 1019
Al Gore Warns of Looming Food Crisis Caused by Climate Change 1019 - subsidies to what we don’t want, and yields fall with rising temperatures
How More Organic Farming Could Worsen Global Warming 1019 - Organic farm yields are lower; to replace them, import food from high emitters.
Billions Face Food, Water Shortages over Next 30 Years, as Nature Fails 1019
Climate Change Threatens World Fisheries, Food for Billions of People 0919
$1 Million a Minute Farm Subsidies Are Destroying the World 0919 - Much of the total instead promotes high-emission cattle production, forest destruction, and pollution from the overuse of fertilizer. “Continuing on current trends means sleepwalking into a scenario wherein climate change increasingly threatens human life, biodiversity and natural resources are depleted, people increasingly suffer life-threatening, diet-induced diseases."
Climate Change Is Likely to Devastate the Global Food Supply, but There's Hope 0819 - Extreme heat, drought and flooding are the major culprits that will cut food production. But altrernative food production processes will rise: robotics, alternative meats, vertical farms, fertilizer management and ancient plants.
Climate Change Is Sapping Nutrients from Our Food, so Global Crisis Possible 0819
Climate Change Threatens the World’s Food Supply, UN Warns 0819
CO2-Driven Nutrient Loss in Rice Could Lead to Vast Vitamin B Deficiencies 0719 - lose 17-30% of vitamin B by 2050
As Climate Changes, Taxpayers Will Shoulder Larger U.S. Payouts to Farmers 0719
It’s Not if We're Approaching Agricultural Disaster; It's How Often They'll Happen 0519
More Nitrogen May Help Offset Warming Effect of Climate Change on Wheat 0319
Global Warming Could Decimate Fish Supplies and Fuel Migration 0219
Future of Food under ‘Severe Threat' as Species Diversity Disappears - U.N. 0219
Vanishing Nutrients 1218 - Rising CO2 means lower nutrient density in food and nutrient deficiencies.
Rising Heat from Climate Change Threatens U.S. Crop Yields 1118
5 Major Crops in the Crosshairs of Climate Change 1018 - wheat, peaches, coffee, corn, almonds
As India’s Ganges Runs Out of Water, a Potential Food Shortage Looms 0918
Crop Losses to Pests Will Soar as Climate Warms 0818 For example, Russia’s losses will rise from 10% to 16% with 2°C warming.
Extreme Weather Could Force Food Prices Up 5% in UK 0818
Rising CO2 Will Leave Crops—and Millions of Humans—Less Healthy 0818 - protein, iron & zinc deficiencies
Biofuels, Planting Forests to Cut Emissions Could Cause More Hunger than Climate Change 0718
Wineries Hedge against Climate Change, Move to Cool Climates 0618
Climate Change Strips Nutrients from Food Crops 0618 - take #1 on 2 studies
Climate Change Could Cause Major Crop Failures in World’s Top Corn Regions 0618 - take #2
If Global Warming Continues at Same Rate, It May Be Leave No Vegetables to Eat 0618 - take #3
How More CO2 Can Make Food Less Nutritious 0518
Why More CO2 May Not Lead to More-Productive Crops 0518
Scientists Examine Threats to Food Security if We Meet Paris Climate Targets 0418
Maple Sugar Season Faces Mounting Climate Change Pressure 0318
Will Chocolate Be among the Foods That Go Extinct due to Climate Change? 0118
Mass Starvation Is Humanity’s Fate if We Keep Flogging the Land to Death 1217
In Peru’s Deserts, Melting Glaciers Are a Godsend (Until They’re Gone) 1117
Manage Climate Risks or Face Much More Hunger by 2050 – U.N. 1117
Global Climate Change Raising Risk of Crop Yield Losses in Tropical Andes 1117
6th Mass Wildlife Extinction Also Threatens Global Food Supplies 0917
Global Warming Reduces Protein in Key Crops 0817
How the Climate Crisis Could Become a Food Crisis Overnight 0717
Maize, Rice, Wheat - Alarm at Rising Climate Risk to Vital Crops 0717
Major Greenland Melting Could Devastate Crops in Africa 0617
Climate Change Could Slash Staple Crops 0517
As Global Groundwater Disappears, Rice, Wheat, Other Crops May Start to Vanish 0417
Drylands Will Suffer if World Reaches 2°C 0417
Europe's Meat and Dairy Farms Vulnerable, as Climate Change Worsens Water 0417
Climate Change May Hurt US Agricultural Productivity 0317
Climate Change Is Transforming the World's Food Supply 0217
Climate Change May Reduce Some US Grain Harvests by Half 0117 - take 2 on study
Climate Change Will Hurt Crops More than It Helps Them, Study Suggests 0117 - take 1 on study
Global Farming Must Transform to Fight Climate Change, Protect Food Security 1016
Climate Change Outpaces Niche Change Rate in Grasses, Threatens Food Supply 0916
Wheat, One of the World’s Key Drops, Is Threatened by Climate Change 0916
Climate Change Threatens Japan’s Agriculture 0816 - Growing zones move north. Heat & drought in current zones.
New Crop Varieties ‘Can't Keep Up with Global Warming' 0616
Coffee Bean Shortage Predicted due to Climate Change 0516
Food System Shock - Climate Change's Greatest Threat to Civilization 0416
Climate Change Will Make Us Sicker and Make Our Food Less Nutritious 0416
Food Scarcity due to Climate Change Could Cause 500,000 Deaths by 2050 - 0316
Farm Report - Montana to Lose Millions to Climate Change 0216
Climate Change Raises a Troubling Question - Who Gets to Eat? 0116
GO TO .Context. .Yields. .Observations. .Summaries: USDA+. .2. .Drought. .Future 1. .Prices. .Crop Data. .CO2 Fertilization. .Floods+
Future Impacts 2
World 'Faces Food Shortages and Mass Migration' Caused by Global Warming 1215
The USDA Puts Food and Climate Change Center Stage In Paris 1215
Rising Temperatures Kick-Start Subarctic Farming In Alaska 1115
National Chocolate Day - Could Climate Change Hurt Supplies? 1015
India's Tea Estates Face Climate-Change Threat 1015
Millions Face Hunger due to Climate Change, ‘Super El Niño'- Oxfam 0915
Kale or Steak? Change in Diet Is Key to U.N. Plan to End Hunger by 2030 - 0915
Climate Change Threatens Food Production in Nigeria 0815
Food Production Shocks Will Happen More Often, due to Extreme Weather 0815 - take 1 on study
Global Warming Increases ‘Food Shocks' Threat 0815 - take 2 on study
Scientists Predict Climate Change Will Increase Child Malnutrition 0715
Millions More to Suffer Nutrient Deficiency by 2050, due to CO2 Emissions 0715
How Will We Feed a World of 9 Billion People? 0715
Society Will Collapse by 2040, due to Catastrophic Food Shortages - GSI 0615
How Climate Change Could Alter the Food on Your Plate 0619
Global Warming May Not Be So Great for Plant Life, after All 0615 - gain range near poles, but lose far more in tropics
Saving Coffee from Extinction 0515
El Niño Could ‘Disrupt Food Markets’ 0515
Troubling New Research Suggests Global Warming Will Cut Wheat Yields 0515
Coffee Production Slipping in Tanzania as Temperatures Rise 0415
Vanishing Fruits, Veggies - Could Climate Change What We Eat? 0415
Over-Consumption, Climate Change Threaten Food, Water Supplies - FAO 0415
Climate Change Could Make Your Food Taste Worse 0315
Feeding a Warmer, Riskier World 0315
Why Fresh Water Shortages Will Cause the Next Great Global Crisis 0315
Yields of Key Cassava Crop Not Keeping Pace with Africa Population Growth 0315
Could Climate Change Take Oysters Off the Menu? 0215
Climate Change Hampering World Food Production 0215
Climate Change Could Bring More Disease, Crop Damage, Fires to Colorado 0215
Heat in the Heartland - Agriculture Impacts 0115 - PDF of Farming chapter. Full study is on the Overviews and Heat pages.
Agriculture will be harmed in a major way. Crop losses of 40-64% by 2100 are likely for corn in the Corn Belt and 8-38% by 2100 for soybeans in the same states (IA, IL, IN, OH, MO). The Corn Belt will have moved into Canada, North Dakota, and NW Minnesota. See maps and table below. In most of Missouri and Illinois, plus about half of Iowa and Indiana, crops losses are 25-50%, and worse in a few places. Wheat is much less affected, as it is often grown in the colder months and harvested by June.
Midwest Climate Future - Missouri Becomes Like Arizona and Chicago Like Texas 0115 - take 1 on the above study
Climate Change Could Hammer Iowa Agriculture, Manufacturing 0115 - take 2 on study, Iowa-specific
Climate Change Threatens Staple Potato Crop in High Andes 0115
Food Diversity under Siege from Global Warming, U.N. Says 0115
Tropical Deforestation Could Disrupt Rainfall Globally 1214 - take 1 on study
Tropical Deforestation Threatens Global Food Production 1214 - take 2 on study
Climate Change Creates New Geography of Food 1214
African Soil Crisis Threatens Food Security 1214 - primarily soil loss
Global Warming Could Undercut Efforts to Eradicate Poverty 1114 - For the 320-page PDF of the World Bank study, see Costs, War+ page, as well as the Overviews page. Among the report's many findings, among several regions, is that 2°C warming could cut Brazil’s soybean crop 30-70% and its wheat crop 50%.
See another summary of the World Bank report on the Cost, War+ page, as "UN: Climate Change Costs to Poor Underestimated”.
High-Tech Farming Poised to Change the Way the World Eats 1114
Climate Change a 'Threat Multiplier’ for Farming-Dependent Nations 1014
Warmer Days a Catastrophe in the Making for Kenya’s Pastoralists 1014
Food Security Faces Growing Pest Advance 0814
How to Stop Climate Change Making Food Less Nutritious? 0714
Inside the Looming Food Crisis 0514
Climate Change Will 'Lead to Battles for Food', Says World Bank Chief 0414
World Unprepared for Climate Damage to Food Security – Oxfam 0314
Can We Prevent a Food Breakdown? 0314
Is Japan Playing Hunger Games with Climate Change? 0314
The map below is from this “Japan” BBC article about the IPCC impacts report, originally from a 2009 paper by Muller et al., via a 2010 World Bank report. It is from but one of many studies. Its projection is a bit more pessimistic than average.
The map projections above show crop yields falling an average of 30% or more across the American Midwest, Southeast Asia, southern China, Australia, Brazil, Argentina, Pakistan, Korea, and Mongolia. Crop yield declines are similar across most of India, the Ukraine, the Middle East, north Africa, and southern Africa, as well as much of the rest of South America. That includes almost 50% in Iowa and Illinois, and more than 50% in Pakistan and northwest India.
Crop yields rise (with +3°C) across Scandinavia; most of Canada; most of Russia, eastern Europe and central Asia; and in north and west China. They rise too in Chile, New Zealand, Kenya, the northern US Rockies, and a few other places.
The IPCC in March 2014 summarrized many such studies below. The key shows % of total number of studies examined.
The bars above show % of the 56 or more studies considered that found various % yield changes (color key at right). The black horizontal bars show the line between yields higher than now and lower ones. Farther into the future, more and more studies project lower yields, especially much lower yields (18% project 50-100% losses after 2090). Assumptions about adaptation, CO2 fertilization, region, and other matters varied from study to study.
The graph below summarizes key parts of the IPCC’s review.
Below is another graph from the March 2014 IPCC Food Impacts summary.
Impacts are worst for wheat and temperate regions. Negative projected soybean impacts were rare.
The two graphs below extrapolate from Hatfield's summary of obersavtions, a bit above.
Note the steep decline in rice production around a tropical city. This is broadly representative of the tropics and subtropics. Yields decline (much) less steeply in currently temperate areas. Soybeans are least vulnerable to heat.
The soybean projections are consistent between the US and IPCC, but the IPCC sees tropics faring better.
This assumes no constraints from nitrogen or water, etc.
Without allowance for increased insect activity and weeds, etc., yields rise 10% for wheat in North Dakota, 18% for soybeans in Kansas, and 5% for rice in Arkansas, but fall 3% for corn in Iowa. The tropics are hit much harder; rice yields fall about 20% in India.
The 2nd graph (below) uses a warming projection more in line with some recent paleoclimate studies. For example, the last time CO2 levels were this high (380-425 ppm (3 and 15 million years ago), which is roughly the square root of 2 ( (declining marginal return to more CO2) times 1750 CO2 levels of 280 ppm), temperatures were 2-6°C higher (Tripati, Pagani, Csank, etc.)
This implies 4-12°C warming with CO2 twice 1750 levels. The “equilibrium" climate sensitivities implied are much higher than “transient” (geologically short-term) climate sensitivities derived from many studies by the IPCC. Debate rages from 1° to 5°C for “transient” climate sensitivity for doubled CO2.
Again, this assumes no nitrogen or water constraints.
Without allowance for increased insect activity and weeds, etc., yields fall 7% for wheat in North Dakota, 15% for corn in Iowa, and 13% for rice in Arkansas, but rise 11% for soybeans in Kansas.
The tropics are hit even harder; rice yields fall about 47% in India. Moves to winter wheat in north India no longer work, as even winters are too hot.
Above, nitrogen and water not constraining.
At left is a table with a simplistic projection of crop yields around various cities amid the world's major growing regions, for combinations of higher temperatures and double pre-industrial CO2.
In general, corn, rice, and wheat are adversely impacted, but not soybeans. Winter wheat is chosen in Pakistant and India
Can the World Feed China? - L Brown 0214
Drought Could Drain More Than Brazil's Coffee Crop 0214
Peak Water and Food Scarcity 0114
Warming Projected to Cut Food Production 2% per Decade 1113
Costs of Damages from & Adaptation to Climate Change in East Asia - Asian Development Bank 2013 - PDF, 216 pages
projections by Asian Development Bank, 2013. PRC = China
As Michigan Warms, Cotton Instead of Cherry and Grapes? 0713
Cattle Weight Loss Means Slimmer Profits in a Warmer World 0713
Global Food Production Trajectory Won’t Meet 2050 Needs 0613
How a Warming World Threatens Our Food Supplies 0413
Climate Change Will Harm Mekong Basin Harvests 0313
Warming May Hurt Michigan Farms 0213
Climate Change Could Devastate US Agriculture 0213
Climate Change and Agriculture in Australia 0213
Future Heat Waves Will Cut Crop Yields a Bunch 0113
Pinpoint Climate Studies Flag Trouble for Mexican Farmers 1212
Climate Change Means More Malnourished Children 1212
Your Thanksgiving on Climate Change 1112
Climate Downgrade - Food Production Hit 1112
Bananas Could Replace Potatoes in Warming World 1012
Heat to Hurt Rice More than CO2 Helps 1012
World in Serious Trouble on Food Front 0712
Annan Links Climate Change to Less Food 1111
Warming Earth Struggles to Feed Itself 0611
Climate to Wreak Havoc on Food Supply 0611
FAO Warns of Long Term Impacts on Food 0411
Stern - Warming Destroys Agriculture 0309
Major Crop Failures Coming Up 0109
Future Food Insecurity with Unprecedented Heat 0109 - PDF
UN Chief Links Warming to Food Crisis 0708
Climate Change Threatens Rice 0408
IPCC on CO2 & Agriculture 1207
Warming to Starve 400 Million 0406
Water Resources for Agriculture in a Changing Climate - Rosenzweig 1004 - PDF
Effects of Climate Change on Global Food Production - Parry et al 0104 - PDF
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Drought & Heat Effects
Heat Worsens Hunger in Yemen 1023
Olive Oil Prices Reach Record Highs, as Spain’s Harvest Is Halved 1023
Searing Heat Reshapes US Food Production 0923
As Temperatures Climb, Millions More People Face Food Insecurity 0823 - As heat keeps people from working while avoiding heat stroke, income drops for the very poorest, making food less affordable. Bad effects of heat on crop growth are not discussed.
Rising Temperatures Are Wreaking Havoc Year-Round 0823 - Among other things, it decreases wheat output in India.
Why Are We Paying for Crop Failures in the Desert? 0823 - US subsidizes losses with crop insurance. That provides incentive to grow thirsty crops in places with little water.
Rampant Heat Waves Threaten Food Security of Entire Planet, Scientists Warn 0723
A $24 Billion Wave of Climate Losses Faces Meat and Dairy Firms 0323
Climate Change Driving Millions to the Precipice of a ‘Raging Food Catastrophe’ 1222
Egypt’s Barren Fields Are Dire Bellwether for Climate Summit 1122
Extreme Heat Is Stressing Cows, Jeopardizing Global Dairy Supply 1122
Africa’s Unreported Extreme Weather in 2022 and Climate Change 1022
Water Crisis Squeezes California Tomato Farmers, as Growing Costs Keep Rising 1022
‘The worst we’ve seen’ - Ranchers Threatened by Historic Heat and Drought 1022
Worst Drought ‘in Living Memory’ Threatens the World’s Olive Oil Supply 0922
U.S. Fruit Sellers Seek Canada for Berry Production amid Drought, Rising Costs 0922
How Drought and War Are Really Affecting the Global Food Supply 0922
‘Famine Is at the Door’ in Somalia, U.N. Warns 0922
Dried-Out Farms from China to Iowa Will Pressure Food Prices 0822
China Issues Alert as Drought and Heat Wave Put Crops at Risk 0822
US Crop Tour Set to Kick Off, with World’s Food Reserves at Stake 0822
Rice, Lithium and Metals at Risk in China’s Extreme Summer 0822
Horn of Africa Drought Places 22 Million People at Risk of Starvation 0822
Drought and Rising Prices Are Fueling Insecurity in Kenya 0822
American Farmers Are Killing Crops and Selling Cows due to Extreme
Climate Disasters in Latin America Threaten Global Food Security 0722
California Farmers and Ranchers Struggle to Survive Unprecedented Water Cuts 0522
4 Years without Rain Leave Madagascar Facing Climate Change-Induced Famine 0821
‘Everything Is Changing’ - Struggling for Food as Malawi’s Lake Chilwa Shrinks 0821
Drought Spurs Australia to Import Rice or Risk Empty Shelves 0720
UN Warns Hunger Crisis in Southern Africa 'on Scale We've Not Seen Before' 0120
‘We’d Prefer the Food’ - Zimbabwe Fears a Famine Is in Its Future 1219
Drought Devastates Food, Power Supplies in Zambia and Zimbabwe 1219
Climate Change Is Here—and It Looks Like Starvation 0319
France's Latest Forecasts Show How Grain Crops Are Feeling the Heat 0818
Australia's Drought-Hit Farmers to Miss Any Benefit from U.S.-China Trade War 0818
Calls for Farm Support Intensify, as Europe Struggles with Heat Wave, Drought 0718
U.N. Calls for Urgent Aid to Sahel as Hunger Crisis Looms 0518
Drought to Shrink Kansas Wheat Crop to Smallest since 1989 - 0518
Climate Change Deepening Horn of Africa's Hunger Crisis, Oxfam Says 0417
100s of 1,000s Face Starvation and Death in Africa, in Growing Crisis 1216
Farmers in Sudan Battle Climate Change and Hunger, as Desert Creeps Closer 1216
As Drought Grips Iran, Farmers Lament Loss of a Way of Life 0916
Pests and Drought Hit Nigeria's Tomato Farms 0716
What You Need to Know About the World's Water Wars 0716
Poison Packed into Crops by Drought and Flood 0516
Across Africa, the Worst Food Crisis since 1985 Looms for 50 Million 0516
Wheat Crisis in Pakistan’s Sindh 0416
Climate Change’s Floods & Droughts Threatening Philippines Food Security 0316
Global Warming Hits Rice Bowls 0316 - especially Thailand
As Mozambique's Rivers Dry Up, Hopes of a Harvest Evaporate Too 0216
Dry Ivory Coast Weather May Cut Season’s Mid-Crop, Farmers Say 0216
El Niño Parches Asia Pacific, Destroying Crops and Drying Up Water Sources 0116
People Are Starving in East Africa – Again 0116
Scarred Riverbeds and Dead Pistachio Trees in a Parched Iran 1215
Ethiopia to Buy More Wheat to Avert Drought Crisis 1115
1/3 of Papua New Guineans Suffering Drought Crisis 1115
Caribbean Agriculture Looks to Cope with Climate Change 1115
Modi Fiddles as Drought Shrivels India's Crops 0915
How California's Drought Is Sweetening This Year's Produce 0915
Study Shows Impact of Irrigation on Drought, Climate Change in Alberta 0815 - Only irrigated crops are growing at all.
Climate Change Threatens Food Production in Nigeria 0815
Kenyan Pastoralists Fighting Climate Change through Food Forests 0715
Salt Is Slowly Crippling California's Almond Industry 0715
Drought Devastates California Cherry Crop, Puts Some Growers Out of Business 0615
Drought Takes $2.7 Billion Toll on California Agriculture 0615
Drought Is Bearing Fruit for Washington Wineries 0615
Record Drought Gives Oklahoma Wheat Farmers a Glimpse of the Future 0515
Zimbabweans Go Hungry, as Drought Hammers Southern Africa 0515
Beyond Almonds - a Rogue's Gallery of Guzzlers In California's Drought 0415
California Drought Brings Smaller Harvests, More Hunger among Farmworkers 1214
Drought Hits Queensland Milk Supplies 1214
Central America Drought Has Pushed 2.5 Million into Food Insecurity 1214
Climate Change in Nicaragua Pushes Farmers into Uncertain World 1214
Why the California Drought Affects Everyone 0714
California Drought Expected to Cost State $2.2 Billion in Losses 0714
Drought Could Cost Central Valley Farms $1.7 Billion and 14,500 Jobs 0514
Drought May Slash US Corn Gains 0514
Attention Shoppers - Fruit and Vegetable Prices Are Rising 0414
Drought Could Drain More Than Brazil's Coffee Crop 0214
As Reservoirs Shrink and Farms Expand, Chile’s Agriculture at Risk 0913
Ancient Civilizations Toppled by Climate Disruption 0813 - also on No Water page
Global Grain Stocks Plunge as 2012 Consumption Exceeded Production 0113
Expanding Dust Bowls Worsening Food Prospects in China and Africa 1212
India Tests Ways to Help Farmers Cope with Climate Change 1212
How Severe Weather Impacts Global Food Supply 1212
Working Wonders Without Water Out West 1112
Grain Prices Soar as US Drought Impact Deepens 0812
USDA Predicts Big Drop in Corn Yield 0812
US Drought Drives Up World Food Prices 0812
Rising Temperature Raises Food Prices 0812
Severe US Drought Triggers Jump in Food Prices 0712
Fierce Drought Wallops Southwest Farmers 0411
UN Cites Risk to China's Wheat Crop 0211
Crop Warning over China Drought 0111
Russia Halts Wheat Exports - Panics Commodity Markets 0810
Argentine Drought Decimates Cattle Herds 0209
3-Yr Drought Slashes CA Crops Planting 0109
Kenya Drought Leaves 10 Million Hungry 0109
Texas Cotton Creamed by Heat and Sand 0408
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Price Effects
Food Prices Rise with Export Limits. Blame Climate Change, Ukraine War, Niño
Climate Change Has Cut Annual Australian Farm Profits by 22% since 2000 - 1219
Heat Wave Ravages European Fields, Sending Wheat Prices Soaring 0818
Attention Shoppers - Fruit and Vegetable Prices Are Rising 0414
U.S. Beef Prices Hit All-Time High 0414
Climate Change and Rising Food Prices Heightened Arab Spring 0313
New Era of Food Scarcity Echoes Collapsed Civilizations 0213
Russia’s Climate Change Hits US Consumers 1012
Heat Waves Will Quadruple Corn Prices 0412
Food Prices to Double by 2030 0511
Climate Change Has Boosted Food Prices 20% 0511
Global Food Prices Hit Record High 0511
World Food Prices May Keep Climbing 0311
New Record World Food Prices in January 2011 0211
This graph is also shown on the Overviews and Home pages.
Below, a more detailed version, noting particular events, comes from the latest IPCC report.
Food Prices to Rise as World Warms 1210
Corn Surges on Food Crisis Fears 1010
Biofuels Hike Food Prices More Than Warming 1008
World Bank - Biofuels Raise Food Prices 75% 0708
Food Prices Rise, Shortages Grow 0408
Warming Cuts Food, Prices Soar 1207
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Crop Data
FAO Food Price Index 0713 - PDF
FAO Crop Data 0613 - PDF, 35 pp
FAO Crop Data 0313 - PDF, 36 pp
FAO Crop Data 1212 - PDF,40 pp
FAO Crop Data 1012 - PDF, 40 pp
FAO Crop Data 0712 - Food Prices Soar - PDF, 36 pp
FAO Crop Data 1210 - PDF, 36 pp
FAO Crop Data 0210 - PDF, 44 pp
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CO2 Fertilization
Global Greening’ Sounds Good. In the Long Run, It’s Terrible. 0718 - More photosynthesis doesn’t mean more food. Extra CO2 can make plants less nutritious. More plants won’t prevent climate change. If respiration catches up ith photosynthesis, this huge carbon reservoir could spill back into our air.
Why More CO2 May Not Lead to More-Productive Crops 0518
Antarctic Ice Reveals Earth’s Accelerating Plant Growth 0417
Global Greening May Soak Up Less CO2 than Projected 0317
Global Warming May Not Be So Great for Plant Life, after All 0615 - gain range near poles, but lose far more in tropics
Findings Cast Doubt on Plant Benefits from Rising CO2 - 0515
Carbon Emissions Help Make Earth Greener 0613
More CO2 Yields Growth Spurt, then Decline 0412
Yields run up against other limiting factors, especially nitrogen.
More CO2 Cuts Plant Protein 0408
The slide below explains what is going on. With less protein in leaves, caterpillars must munch more leaves to survive.
CO2 & Temp Effect on Peanut Forage 0205 - PDF
Agriculture & Ecosystems - IPCC 2001 - PDF, 108 pp
Flower Power (CO2 Fertilization) - Wittwer 0492
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Flood Effects
Heavy Rains Devastate Crops in China’s Northeastern Grain Basket 0823
Canada’s Record Rains Cut Wheat Acreage to 3-Year Low 0714
Extreme Weather Threatens Canadian Economy 0713
Failure to Prevent Floods Could Push Up British Food Prices 0713
Farmers Fail to Feed UK After Extreme Weather Hits Wheat Crop 0613
After Drought, Rains Plague Midwest Farms 0613
British Farms in Crisis from Relentless Floods 0213
Misc.
Shrunken Mississippi River Slows US Food Exports When World Needs Them Most 1122
Diverse Microbes Are Key to Healthy Soil. Climate Change Is Threatening That. 0722
A Wild, Windy Spring Is Creating a Soil Erosion Nightmare for Farmers 0622
How Climate Change Could Make Your Food Less Safe to Eat 0519
Geo-Engineering Problem - Dimming the Sky Won’t Save the World’s Harvests 0818
Changing Climate Could Worsen Foods’ Nutrition 0317
Earth Has Lost 1/3 of Arable Land in Past 40 Years 1215
The Complex Relationship between Agriculture and Climate Change 0715
Global Warming May Not Be So Great for Plant Life, after All 0615 - gain range near poles, but lose far more in tropics
Crop-Loss Farmers Sell Their Children to Survive 0515
Farming Absorbs 22% of Cost of Disasters in Developing Countries 0315
Success of ‘Land Sparing' Will Depend on Global Economics, Regulations 1214
Western Diet's Spread Bad for Health, Climate? It Doesn't Have to Happen 1114
Kale or Fracking? Farmers and Corporations Fight It Out for Water 1114
More Than 40% of China's Arable Land Degraded 1114
Getting Beyond Just Wheat, Corn and Rice 0514
World Food Security at Risk as Variety of Crops Shrinks 0314
Tech Experts Work to Help Farms Weather Climate Effects 1113
Soil Carbon Is Just Blowing in the Wind 0813
Great Lakes Area Draws World Attention for Food 0713
In Mekong Delta, Rice Boom Has Steep Environmental Cost 0713
Warmer Climate Threatens Africa’s Vital Cassava Crop 0513
World Fish Catch Falls Another 2% 1112
Wild Rice Gene Boosts Yields 0812
Bumper 2011 Grain Harvest Fails to Rebuild Global Stocks 0112
Trees Boost African Crop Yields 1011
Can the United States Feed China? 0311
Great Food Crisis of 2011 0111
Wheat Genome May Help Tackle Food Shortages 0810
Nile Delta Becoming Poisoned by Salt Water Intrusion 0110
Forests to Fall for Food and Fuel 0708
Rice Intensification System to Counter Drought 0907 - PDF
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