Food

       Below are articles about impacts on the food supply.  Food impacts are arranged in 8 major groups: Observed Effects, Future Effects, Drought Effects, Price Effects, Crop Data, CO2 Fertilization, Flood Effects, and Misc.

     Month and year follow each article's name.  PDF files are so marked, after month and date, some with authors noted.  Within sections, more recent files appear above older files.


Context

     This video of a speech by Dr. Julian Cribb summarizes the challenge we face.
     Food demand is expected to soar 100% by 2060.  But we face peak water, peak land, peak oil, peak fish, and a climate penalty (by 2100) exceeding 50%: 10% crop loss for each 1°C of warming.  Farming is highly vulnerable to > 2°C warming.
    Groundwater mining accounts or 13% of sea level rise; it’s most acute in north China, the Ganges basin, the Middle East, and the US Great Plains, where groundwater resources may be exhausted in 15-20 years.  Climate change also affects the reliability of rainfall (and snowpack).
     At current rates, topsoil will be exhausted in 48-70 years.  Its loss will observed as crop yields decline.  Each meal costs 10 kilos of topsoil.  Coming peaks (2035-2060) of soil and fertilizer phosphorus and potassium will appear as very steep food price hikes and catastrophic crop failures.
     In 50-100 years, agriculture may no longer be the way we feed ourselves.  Industrial hydroponic algae farming may be.  We must also re-invent the global diet.  Cities will completely recycle their wastes back into food.

Here are somewhat recent production statistics for our 4 biggest crops, from our largest producers.

Role of Various Foods in Climate Change 1209 - Sweden, including transportation

   

www.ewg.org/meateatersguide/eat-smart/


Yields



   

     Grain yields per acre (or hectare or square mile) have begun to plateau in major producers, starting shortly before 2000.  In China, rice yields are poised to plateau.

    







     A view across ALL cereal grains (below) for ALL leading producers suggests a worldwide yield plateau from 2008 thru 2012.  A 7% increase followed in 2013, 4/5 of it from a US rebound to a record harvest.

     Perhaps total production can be sustained more by adding acres.

It is not clear how much of the yield plateau was due to climate change, how much to running out of more technical changes (the green revolution), how much to groundwater depletion, and how much to other factors.  Groundwater depletion follows from warming, as farmers try to maintain irrigation.

     The effects of the 2012 drought in the US and the 2010 drought in Russia are visible. (Both nations had record heat.)  So are the effects of the 2012 floods in Britain.  The reason for the 2012 drop in Bangladesh is not clear.

     Note that yields for wheat top out at 8 kilograms per hectare (Britain, France, Germany graph above), while rice yields top out at 5 (China & Japan graph above).

     Thus rice growers (Bangladesh, Vietnam, India, etc.) harvest fewer kg per acre than wheat growers (France, Germany, Britain, etc.).  A change in a nation's mix of crops can also affect mean yield per acre.

Many studies have bee done on crop production as a function of temperature, such as the ones below.

                                    Observations   (observed drought effects are 2/3 of the way down the page)

Why Ravaging Heat Waves Matter to World’s Dinner Table 0818

Red Cross Warns of Food Crisis in North Korea, as Crops Fail in Heat 0818

Worry Grows - Climate Change to Quietly Steal Nutrients from Major Food Crops 1217
     drops in iron, zinc and protein as CO2 levels rise to ~560 ppm, except for the few C4 crops: corn, sorghum, etc.

The Global Heat Wave Is about to Hit Your Wallet 0718 - wheat, cotton, power plant cooling, wildfires

Gannets Study Reveals Warm Water Lowers Nutritional Value of Fish and Squid 0718

Caffeine High?  Climate-hit Ethiopia Shifts Coffee Uphill 0618

Farmers Unable to Cope with Shocks Induced by Climate Change 0518

Maple Sugar Season Faces Mounting Climate Change Pressure 0318

In Iceland, Global Warming Is No Longer a Joke 0318

Impact of Warming Seas Felt by Northeastern Fisheries 0218

Global Warming Hits Tea industry Worldwide 0218

Soaring Popularity of Grass-Fed Beef May Hit Roadblock - Less Nutritious Grass 0118 - more CO2 yields less protein

How Climate Change Is Playing Havoc With Olive Oil (and Farmers) 1017

Climate Change Creating Food Shortages across the Pacific 1017

Farming in Alaska Is Increasingly Possible 0917

The Great Nutrient Collapse - More CO2 Yields Carbs Overdose 0917

‘Flash Drought’ Could Devastate Half the High Plains Wheat Harvest 0817

Global Warming Reduces Protein in Key Crops 0817

Climate Study Offers Warnings for Florida Farmers from Global Warming 0717

Obama Sees New Front in Climate Change Battle- Agriculture 0517

Climate Change to Blame for Flat-Lining Wheat Yield Gains - CSIRO 0317

Food Production in Syria Hits All-Time Low 1116

Climate Change Threatens Japan’s Agriculture 0816 - Growing zones move north.  Heat & drought in current zones.

How Southern Africa Is Coping with the Worst Global Food Crisis in 25 Years 0516

Unusual Heat Bakes Sri Lanka's Chicken Industry 0516

Climate Brings Hard Times for Tea 0416

Climate Change’s Floods & Droughts Threatening Philippines Food Security 0316

Global Warming Hits Rice Bowls 0316

Chilean Salmon under Threat 0316

Drought-Hit Ethiopia Needs Money for Seeds, as Rains Begin 0316

Pakistan’s Biggest Threat Isn’t Terrorism, It’s Climate Change 0316 - mostly droughts and floods, also sea level rise for flat Karachi

Climate Change Pushes Fish toward Poles, Threatening Food Source for Poor 0216

Decline in Bee Population is Putting Global Food Industry at Risk 0216

Russian Farmers Find Climate Change Nyet So Great 0216

Ample Grain Stocks Could Dampen Impact of El Niño / La Niña Shift 0216

Soil Productivity Cut by Climate Change, Making Societies More Marginal 0116

Cereal Harvests across the World ‘Fall by 10% in 50 Years’ 0116

Hunger Threatens Millions, as El Niño Causes Drought and Floods 1215

Climate Smart Coffee with Bananas Set to Boost East African Farmers’ Income 1215

Improving Soils Cuts Carbon and Grows More Food 1215

Earth Has Lost 1/3 of Arable Land in Past 40 Years 1215

Laos Counts Climate Change Costs - Record Floods, Drought and Landslides 1115

Climate Change Study Points to Lower Yields and Early Ripening of Grape Crops 1115

Climate Change Bites Kenyan Tea Farmers 1115

Rising Temperatures Kick-Start Subarctic Farming In Alaska 1115

Ethiopia, a Nation of Farmers, Strains under Severe Drought 1015

Does industrial Agriculture Actually Yield More Food per Acre than Organic? 1015

El Niño Threatens Food Supplies in Papua New Guinea 1015

India's Tea Estates Face Climate-Change Threat 1015

Millions Face Hunger due to Climate Change, ‘Super El Niño'- Oxfam 0915

El Niño Takes Toll on US Rice Farmers – and Points to Even Higher Prices 0915

As Drought Destroys Maize, Zimbabwe Tries Out New Staples 0915

Severe Drought, Floods Destroy Crops in Papua New Guinea Highlands 0915

Mongolia in for Double Whammy - Drought Now, Freeze-Kill Next 0915

Climate Change Threatens Food Production in Nigeria 0815

Salt Water Increasingly Attacks Vietnam’s Mekong Delta 0715

Climate Change Sparks Tension in India's Tea Gardens 0515

Troubling New Research Suggests Global Warming Will Cut Wheat Yields 0515

El Niño Could ‘Disrupt Food Markets’ 0515

El Niño Outlook Daunting for Aussie Farmers Already in Drought’s Grip 0515

Coffee Production Slipping in Tanzania as Temperatures Rise 0415

Beyond Almonds - a Rogue's Gallery of Guzzlers In California's Drought 0415

Climate Change Costs for India 0315

Yields of Key Cassava Crop Not Keeping Pace with Africa Population Growth 0315

Climate Change Threatens Staple Potato Crop in High Andes 0115

Food Diversity under Siege from Global Warming, U.N. Says 0115

Expert Says Climate Change Negatively Affecting Turkey Meat Quality 1114

China’s Parched Plains Ending Run of Record Corn Harvests 1114

Air Pollution Slashes India's Potential Grain Yields by Half 1114

Climate Change Hits Banana Farmers 1014

Climate Change Affects Vietnam's Rice Bowl 0914

Wild Relatives of Food Crops Are Endangered 0914

Shifting Climate Has North Dakota Farmers Swapping Wheat For Corn 0814

Canada’s Record Rains Cut Wheat Acreage to 3-Year Low 0714

How to Stop Climate Change Making Food Less Nutritious? 0714

Growing Pains of China's Agricultural Water Needs 0614

Inside the Looming Food Crisis 0514



T. Richard et al., from Nielsen Persihables Group at Arizona State University, via Wall Street Journal, April 15, 2014






El Niño's Threat to Major Food Crop Yields 0514

Climate Change Making Food Crops Less Nutritious 0514

Speakers Cite Climate Change’s Effect on Farms 0514

Wheat Rust Fungal Disease Threatens to Destroy World Crop 0414

Honeybee Shortage Threatens Crop Pollination in Europe 0114

India’s Dangerous Food Bubble 1213

Jolt to Complacency on Food Supply 1113

Is the IPCC Right on Climate Change?  Just Ask the World's Farmers 0913

Brazil Faces Drop in Crop Productivity 0913

Crop Pests Head Polewards to Flee Heat 0913

Too Much Rain Washes Out Crops in the South 0813

Hot B.C. Summer Creates Perfect Conditions for Invasive Fruit Fly 0813

Rising Temperature, Rising Food Prices 0813 - 10% drop in yields per °C warming, etc.

Changes in Store as Ohio Warms 0813
      Corn & soy yields to drop 50% by 2050.  Corn belt has already moved north 100 miles in 50 years.

Climate Change Threatens Crunchy, Tart Apples 0813

Ancient Civilizations Toppled by Climate Disruption 0813

Grain Yields Have Begun to Plateau 0813 

Climate Forecasts Shown to Warn of Crop Failures Months in Advance 0713  

US Corn, Soy Planting Pace Slowest in 17 Years, After Wet Week 0613  

How Climate Change Could Eventually End Coffee 0313 

Link Between Warming Climate and Your Food 0313  

Weather Changes Frustrate Nepal’s Farmers 0213  

Weather Shifts Force Kentucky Farmers to Try Other Crops 1212  

Higher CO2 Level Is Reducing Crop Yields for Favorite Rice Strain 1112

Climate Change Is Threat to Arabica Coffee Crops 1112

Climate Downgrade - Food Production Hit 1112

Warming Cuts Milk Production 0712  

Warming Shrivels Crop Yields 1011  

Climate Shifts Cut Wheat Yields 0511


Summaries of Observations

Climate Impacts on Agriculture - Hatfield 0411 - PDF, 20 pp.  This literature review is the basis of the Agriculture chapter in the draft US National Climate Assessment.


    This leads to the  graphical interpretation at left, based primarily on Grain Yield.  The  vintages of studies vary, so doubled atmospheric CO2 levels varied accordingly.  The graph adjusts for vintage.

     This leads to the graphical interpretation at left.  Important caveats have to do with other limiting factors besides temperature - notably nitrogen and water, but also phosphorus, potassium, weeds, insects, soil carbon and acidity, etc.
     Yield responses, based on June temperatures (generally in the middle of the growing season) are shown for cities in the middle of the primary growing areas.

     Yields are sensitive to temperatures (and many other factors) in several months, not just June, as different events occur during the growing season.  But June temperatures are at least indicative.  Corresponding graphs for southern hemisphere growers (notably Brazil, Argentina, and Australia) would use December temperatures.

     Winter and spring wheat are both economically important in the US, India, China, etc.  An adaptation to warming already well under way is to plant winter wheat in Pakistan and northern India.  But even winter in Delhi is warm (mean temperature 60-65°F, much warmer than San Diego or San Antonio).

More Observations & Summaries

Warming Hurts African Crops, Interacts with Rain 0311

Coffee Yields Plummet As Climate Warms 0311  

Warmer Weather Drives Crops Northward 1010 

Rice Yield Growth Rates Falling as World Warms 0810  

Rice Response to Warm Nights - Welch 0810 - PDF

     The PPT slide below summarizes conclusions by Welch (here), Ainsworth, Peng, and Lobell (all below), and others.


     The following can also be said, based on these and other studies.

Even Slow Warming Could Halve Crop Yields 0909

Crops Fall w Slow Warm, Supplement - Schlenker 0909 - PDF

Crops Yields Fall Even with Slow Warming - Schlenker 0909 - PDF

     The following PPT slide summizes Schlenker & Roberts' work.

Rice re CO2, O3, Temp - Ainsworth 0308  - PDF

Rice Yields Fall 10+% per 1°C Night Warming - Peng 0704 - PDF 

17% Fall in Corn & Soybean Yields per 1°C Warming in US - Lobell 0203 - PDF


Future Impacts 1

Projected changes in yields of several crops worldwide as a function of global warming (relative to pre-industrial temperatures) in the absence of adaptation. Best estimates and likely uncertainty ranges are shown.  

Local (+°C) for Low Latitudes
Mid-High Latitudes



from
Climate Stabilization Targets by US National Academy of Sciences, late 2011 (on Overviews web page)





Below are 2 graphs drawn from John Holdren's slides (also available on Overviews page).

Biofuels, Planting Forests to Cut Emissions Could Cause More Hunger than Climate Change 0718

Wineries Hedge against Climate Change, Move to Cool Climates 0618

Climate Change Strips Nutrients from Food Crops 0618 - take #1 on 2 studies

Climate Change Could Cause Major Crop Failures in World’s Top Corn Regions 0618 - take #2

If Global Warming Continues at Same Rate, It May Be Leave No Vegetables to Eat 0618 - take #3

How More CO2 Can Make Food Less Nutritious 0518

Why More CO2 May Not Lead to More-Productive Crops 0518

Scientists Examine Threats to Food Security if We Meet Paris Climate Targets 0418

Maple Sugar Season Faces Mounting Climate Change Pressure 0318

Will Chocolate Be among the Foods That Go Extinct due to Climate Change? 0118

Mass Starvation Is Humanity’s Fate if We Keep Flogging the Land to Death 1217

In Peru’s Deserts, Melting Glaciers Are a Godsend (Until They’re Gone) 1117

Manage Climate Risks or Face Much More Hunger by 2050 – U.N. 1117

Global Climate Change Raising Risk of Crop Yield Losses in Tropical Andes 1117

6th Mass Wildlife Extinction Also Threatens Global Food Supplies 0917

Global Warming Reduces Protein in Key Crops 0817

How the Climate Crisis Could Become a Food Crisis Overnight 0717

Maize, Rice, Wheat - Alarm at Rising Climate Risk to Vital Crops 0717

Major Greenland Melting Could Devastate Crops in Africa 0617

Climate Change Could Slash Staple Crops 0517

As Global Groundwater Disappears, Rice, Wheat, Other Crops May Start to Vanish 0417

Drylands Will Suffer if World Reaches 2°C 0417

Europe's Meat and Dairy Farms Vulnerable, as Climate Change Worsens Water 0417

Climate Change May Hurt US Agricultural Productivity 0317

Climate Change Is Transforming the World's Food Supply 0217

Climate Change May Reduce Some US Grain Harvests by Half 0117 - take 2 on study

Climate Change Will Hurt Crops More than It Helps Them, Study Suggests 0117 - take 1 on study

Global Farming Must Transform to Fight Climate Change, Protect Food Security 1016

Climate Change Outpaces Niche Change Rate in Grasses, Threatens Food Supply 0916

Wheat, One of the World’s Key Drops, Is Threatened by Climate Change 0916

Climate Change Threatens Japan’s Agriculture 0816 - Growing zones move north.  Heat & drought in current zones.

New Crop Varieties ‘Can't Keep Up with Global Warming' 0616

Coffee Bean Shortage Predicted due to Climate Change 0516

Food System Shock - Climate Change's Greatest Threat to Civilization 0416

Agriculture on the Brink 0416

Climate Change Will Make Us Sicker and Make Our Food Less Nutritious 0416

Food Scarcity due to Climate Change Could Cause 500,000 Deaths by 2050 - 0316

Farm Report - Montana to Lose Millions to Climate Change 0216

Climate Change Raises a Troubling Question - Who Gets to Eat? 0116

World 'Faces Food Shortages and Mass Migration' Caused by Global Warming 1215

The USDA Puts Food and Climate Change Center Stage In Paris 1215

Rising Temperatures Kick-Start Subarctic Farming In Alaska 1115

National Chocolate Day - Could Climate Change Hurt Supplies? 1015

India's Tea Estates Face Climate-Change Threat 1015

Millions Face Hunger due to Climate Change, ‘Super El Niño'- Oxfam 0915

Kale or Steak?  Change in Diet Is Key to U.N. Plan to End Hunger by 2030 - 0915

Climate Change Threatens Food Production in Nigeria 0815

Food Production Shocks Will Happen More Often, due to Extreme Weather 0815 - take 1 on study

Global Warming Increases ‘Food Shocks' Threat 0815 - take 2 on study

Scientists Predict Climate Change Will Increase Child Malnutrition 0715

Millions More to Suffer Nutrient Deficiency by 2050, due to CO2 Emissions 0715

How Will We Feed a World of 9 Billion People? 0715

Society Will Collapse by 2040, Due to Catastrophic Food Shortages - GSI 0615

How Climate Change Could Alter the Food on Your Plate 0619

Global Warming May Not Be So Great for Plant Life, after All 0615 - gain range near poles, but lose far more in tropics

Saving Coffee from Extinction 0515

El Niño Could ‘Disrupt Food Markets’ 0515

Troubling New Research Suggests Global Warming Will Cut Wheat Yields 0515

Coffee Production Slipping in Tanzania as Temperatures Rise 0415

Dairy Straits 0415

Vanishing Fruits, Veggies - Could Climate Change What We Eat? 0415

Over-Consumption, Climate Change Threaten Food, Water Supplies - FAO 0415

Climate Change Could Make Your Food Taste Worse 0315

Feeding a Warmer, Riskier World 0315

Why Fresh Water Shortages Will Cause the Next Great Global Crisis 0315

Yields of Key Cassava Crop Not Keeping Pace with Africa Population Growth 0315

Could Climate Change Take Oysters Off the Menu? 0215

Climate Change Hampering World Food Production 0215

Climate Change Could Bring More Disease, Crop Damage, Fires to Colorado 0215

Heat in the Heartland - Agriculture Impacts 0115 - PDF of Farming chapter.  Full study is on the Overviews and Heat pages.

     Agriculture will be harmed in a major way.  Crop losses of 40-64% by 2100 are likely for corn in the Corn Belt and 8-38% by 2100 for soybeans in the same states (IA, IL, IN, OH, MO).  The Corn Belt will have moved into Canada, North Dakota, and NW Minnesota.  See maps and table below.  In most of Missouri and Illinois, plus about half of Iowa and Indiana, crops losses are 25-50%, and worse in a few places.  Wheat is much less affected, as it is often grown in the colder months and harvested by June.

Midwest Climate Future - Missouri Becomes Like Arizona and Chicago Like Texas 0115 -  take 1 on the above study

Climate Change Could Hammer Iowa Agriculture, Manufacturing 0115 - take 2 on study, Iowa-specific

Climate Change Threatens Staple Potato Crop in High Andes 0115

Food Diversity under Siege from Global Warming, U.N. Says 0115

Tropical Deforestation Could Disrupt Rainfall Globally 1214 - take 1 on study

Tropical Deforestation Threatens Global Food Production 1214 - take 2 on study

Climate Change Creates New Geography of Food 1214

African Soil Crisis Threatens Food Security 1214 - primarily soil loss

Global Warming Could Undercut Efforts to Eradicate Poverty 1114 - For the 320-page PDF of the World Bank study, see Costs, War+ page, as well as the Overviews page.  Among the report's many findings, among several regions, is that 2°C warming could cut Brazil’s soybean crop 30-70% and its wheat crop 50%.
     See another summary of the World Bank report on the Cost, War+ page, as "
UN: Climate Change Costs to Poor Underestimated”.

High-Tech Farming Poised to Change the Way the World Eats 1114

Climate Change a 'Threat Multiplier’ for Farming-Dependent Nations 1014

Warmer Days a Catastrophe in the Making for Kenya’s Pastoralists 1014

Food Security Faces Growing Pest Advance 0814

How to Stop Climate Change Making Food Less Nutritious? 0714

Inside the Looming Food Crisis 0514

Climate Change Will 'Lead to Battles for Food', Says World Bank Chief 0414

World Unprepared for Climate Damage to Food Security – Oxfam 0314

Can We Prevent a Food Breakdown? 0314

Is Japan Playing Hunger Games with Climate Change? 0314
     The map below is from this “Japan” BBC article about the IPCC impacts report, originally from a 2009 paper by Muller
et al., via a 2010 World Bank report.  It is from but one of many studies.  Its projection is a bit more pessimistic than average.

    The map projections above show crop yields falling an average of 30% or more across the American Midwest, Southeast Asia, southern China, Australia, Brazil, Argentina, Pakistan, Korea, and Mongolia.  Crop yield declines are similar across most of India, the Ukraine, the Middle East, north Africa, and southern Africa, as well as much of the rest of South America.  That includes almost 50% in Iowa and Illinois, and more than 50% in Pakistan and northwest India.

     Crop yields rise (with +3°C) across Scandinavia; most of Canada; most of Russia, eastern Europe and central Asia; and in north and west China.  They rise too in Chile, New Zealand, Kenya, the northern US Rockies, and a few other places.

    The IPCC in March 2014 summarrized many such studies below.  The key shows % of total number of studies examined.

     The bars above show % of the 56 or more studies considered that found various % yield changes (color key at right).  The black horizontal bars show the line between yields higher than now and lower ones.  Farther into the future, more and more studies project lower yields, especially much lower yields (18% project 50-100% losses after 2090).  Assumptions about adaptation, CO2 fertilization, region, and other matters varied from study to study.

     The graph below summarizes key parts of the IPCC’s review.


Below is another graph from the March 2014 IPCC Food Impacts summary.
Impacts are worst for wheat and temperate regions.  Negative projected soybean impacts were rare.

    The two graphs below extrapolate from Hatfield's summary of obersavtions, a bit above.

     Note the steep decline in rice production around a tropical city.  This is broadly representative of the tropics and subtropics.  Yields decline (much) less steeply in currently temperate areas.  Soybeans are least vulnerable to heat.
     The soybean projections are consistent between the US and IPCC, but the IPCC sees tropics faring better.

     This assumes no constraints from nitrogen or water, etc.
     Without allowance for increased insect activity and weeds, etc., yields rise 10% for wheat in North Dakota, 18% for soybeans in Kansas, and 5% for rice in Arkansas, but fall 3% for corn in Iowa.  The tropics are hit much harder; rice yields fall about 20% in India.

     The 2nd graph (below) uses a warming projection more in line with some recent paleoclimate studies.  For example, the last time CO2 levels were this high (380-425 ppm (3 and 15 million years ago), which is roughly the square root of 2 (declining marginal return to more CO2) times 1750 CO2 levels of 280 ppm), temperatures were 2-6°C higher (Tripati, Pagani, Csank, etc.)
     This implies 4-12°C warming with CO
2 twice 1750 levels.  The “equilibrium" climate sensitivities implied are much higher than “transient” (geologically short-term) climate sensitivities derived from many studies by the IPCC.  Debate rages from 1° to 5°C for “transient” climate sensitivity for doubled CO2.


     Again, this assumes no nitrogen or water constraints.

     Without allowance for increased insect activity and weeds, etc., yields fall 7% for wheat in North Dakota, 15% for corn in Iowa, and 13% for rice in Arkansas, but rise 11% for soybeans in Kansas.
     The tropics are hit even harder; rice yields fall about 47% in India.  Moves to winter wheat in north India no longer work, as even winters are too hot.

                         Above, nitrogen and water not constraining.




     At left is a table with a simplistic projection of crop yields around various cities amid the world's major growing regions, for combinations of higher temperatures and double pre-industrial CO2.

     In general, corn, rice, and wheat are adversely impacted, but not soybeans.  Winter wheat is chosen in Pakistant and India.




















Future Impacts 2

Can the World Feed China? - L Brown 0214

Drought Could Drain More Than Brazil's Coffee Crop 0214

Peak Water and Food Scarcity 0114

Warming Projected to Cut Food Production 2% per Decade 1113

Costs of Damages from & Adaptation to Climate Change in East Asia - Asian Development Bank 2013 - PDF, 216 pages

projections by Asian Development Bank, 2013.  PRC = China

As Michigan Warms, Cotton Instead of Cherry and Grapes? 0713

Cattle Weight Loss Means Slimmer Profits in a Warmer World 0713

Global Food Production Trajectory Won’t Meet 2050 Needs 0613

How a Warming World Threatens Our Food Supplies 0413

Climate Change Will Harm Mekong Basin Harvests 0313

Warming May Hurt Michigan Farms 0213

Climate Change Could Devastate US Agriculture 0213

Climate Change and Agriculture in Australia 0213

Future Heat Waves Will Cut Crop Yields a Bunch 0113  

Pinpoint Climate Studies Flag Trouble for Mexican Farmers 1212  

Climate Change Means More Malnourished Children 1212 

Your Thanksgiving on Climate Change 1112

Climate Downgrade - Food Production Hit 1112

Bananas Could Replace Potatoes in Warming World 1012  

Heat to Hurt Rice More than CO2 Helps 1012  

World in Serious Trouble on Food Front 0712  

Annan Links Climate Change to Less Food 1111  

Warming Earth Struggles to Feed Itself 0611 

Climate to Wreak Havoc on Food Supply 0611  

FAO Warns of Long Term Impacts on Food 0411 

Future of Food Riots 0111

Stern - Warming Destroys Agriculture 0309 

Major Crop Failures Coming Up 0109 

Future Food Insecurity with Unprecedented Heat 0109 - PDF

UN Chief Links Warming to Food Crisis 0708  

Climate Change Threatens Rice 0408  

IPCC on CO2 & Agriculture 1207 

Warming to Starve 400 Million 0406 

Water Resources for Agriculture in a Changing Climate - Rosenzweig 1004 - PDF 

Effects of Climate Change on Global Food Production - Parry et al 0104 - PDF


Drought Effects

France's Latest Forecasts Show How Grain Crops Are Feeling the Heat 0818

Australia's Drought-Hit Farmers to Miss Any Benefit from U.S.-China Trade War 0818

Calls for Farm Support Intensify, as Europe Struggles with Heat Wave, Drought 0718

U.N. Calls for Urgent Aid to Sahel as Hunger Crisis Looms 0518

Drought to Shrink Kansas Wheat Crop to Smallest since 1989 - 0518

Climate Change Deepening Horn of Africa's Hunger Crisis, Oxfam Says 0417

100s of 1,000s Face Starvation and Death in Africa, in Growing Crisis 1216

Farmers in Sudan Battle Climate Change and Hunger, as Desert Creeps Closer 1216

As Drought Grips Iran, Farmers Lament Loss of a Way of Life 0916

Pests and Drought Hit Nigeria's Tomato Farms 0716

What You Need to Know About the World's Water Wars 0716

Poison Packed into Crops by Drought and Flood 0516

Across Africa, the Worst Food Crisis since 1985 Looms for 50 Million 0516

Wheat Crisis in Pakistan’s Sindh 0416

Climate Change’s Floods & Droughts Threatening Philippines Food Security 0316

Global Warming Hits Rice Bowls 0316 - especially Thailand

As Mozambique's Rivers Dry Up, Hopes of a Harvest Evaporate Too 0216

Dry Ivory Coast Weather May Cut Season’s Mid-Crop, Farmers Say 0216

El Niño Parches Asia Pacific, Destroying Crops and Drying Up Water Sources 0116

People Are Starving in East Africa – Again 0116

Scarred Riverbeds and Dead Pistachio Trees in a Parched Iran 1215

Ethiopia to Buy More Wheat to Avert Drought Crisis 1115

1/3 of Papua New Guineans Suffering Drought Crisis 1115

Caribbean Agriculture Looks to Cope with Climate Change 1115

Modi Fiddles as Drought Shrivels India's Crops 0915

How California's Drought Is Sweetening This Year's Produce 0915

Study Shows Impact of Irrigation on Drought, Climate Change in Alberta 0815 - Only irrigated crops are growing at all.

Climate Change Threatens Food Production in Nigeria 0815

Kenyan Pastoralists Fighting Climate Change through Food Forests 0715

Salt Is Slowly Crippling California's Almond Industry 0715

Drought Devastates California Cherry Crop, Puts Some Growers Out of Business 0615

Drought Takes $2.7 Billion Toll on California Agriculture 0615

Drought Is Bearing Fruit for Washington Wineries 0615

Record Drought Gives Oklahoma Wheat Farmers a Glimpse of the Future 0515

Zimbabweans Go Hungry, as Drought Hammers Southern Africa 0515

Beyond Almonds - a Rogue's Gallery of Guzzlers In California's Drought 0415

California Drought Brings Smaller Harvests, More Hunger among Farmworkers 1214

Drought Hits Queensland Milk Supplies 1214

Central America Drought Has Pushed 2.5 Million into Food Insecurity 1214

Climate Change in Nicaragua Pushes Farmers into Uncertain World 1214

Why the California Drought Affects Everyone 0714

California Drought Expected to Cost State $2.2 Billion in Losses 0714

Drought Could Cost Central Valley Farms $1.7 Billion and 14,500 Jobs 0514

Drought May Slash US Corn Gains 0514

Attention Shoppers - Fruit and Vegetable Prices Are Rising 0414

Drought Could Drain More Than Brazil's Coffee Crop 0214

As Reservoirs Shrink and Farms Expand, Chile’s Agriculture at Risk 0913

Ancient Civilizations Toppled by Climate Disruption 0813 - also on No Water page

Global Grain Stocks Plunge as 2012 Consumption Exceeded Production 0113  

Expanding Dust Bowls Worsening Food Prospects in China and Africa 1212  

India Tests Ways to Help Farmers Cope with Climate Change 1212  

How Severe Weather Impacts Global Food Supply 1212  

Working Wonders Without Water Out West 1112  

Grain Prices Soar as US Drought Impact Deepens 0812  

USDA Predicts Big Drop in Corn Yield 0812  

US Drought Drives Up World Food Prices 0812  

Rising Temperature Raises Food Prices 0812  

Severe US Drought Triggers Jump in Food Prices 0712  

Fierce Drought Wallops Southwest Farmers 0411  

UN Cites Risk to China's Wheat Crop 0211  

Crop Warning over China Drought 0111  

Russia Halts Wheat Exports - Panics Commodity Markets 0810  

Argentine Drought Decimates Cattle Herds 0209  

3-Yr Drought Slashes CA Crops Planting 0109  

Kenya Drought Leaves 10 Million Hungry 0109  

Texas Cotton Creamed by Heat and Sand 0408


Price Effects

Heat Wave Ravages European Fields, Sending Wheat Prices Soaring 0818

Attention Shoppers - Fruit and Vegetable Prices Are Rising 0414

U.S. Beef Prices Hit All-Time High 0414

Climate Change and Rising Food Prices Heightened Arab Spring 0313

New Era of Food Scarcity Echoes Collapsed Civilizations 0213

Russia’s Climate Change Hits US Consumers 1012

FAO Food Price Index 0612

Heat Waves Will Quadruple Corn Prices 0412

Food Prices to Double by 2030 0511

Climate Change Has Boosted Food Prices 20% 0511

Global Food Prices Hit Record High 0511

World Food Prices May Keep Climbing 0311

New Record World Food Prices in January 2011 0211

     This graph is also shown on the Overviews and Home pages.

     Below, a more detailed version, noting particular events, comes from the latest IPCC report.

Food Prices to Rise as World Warms 1210

Corn Surges on Food Crisis Fears 1010

Biofuels Hike Food Prices More Than Warming 1008  

World Bank - Biofuels Raise Food Prices 75% 0708 

Food Prices Rise, Shortages Grow 0408  

Food Prices Soar 2 0208

Warming Cuts Food, Prices Soar 1207


Crop Data

Grain Harvest Fact Sheet 0814

FAO Food Price Index 0713 - PDF
    

FAO Crop Data 0613 - PDF, 35 pp

FAO Crop Data 0313 - PDF, 36 pp

FAO Crop Data 1212 - PDF,40 pp

FAO Crop Data 1012 - PDF, 40 pp

FAO Crop Data 0712 - Food Prices Soar - PDF, 36 pp

FAO Crop Data 1210 - PDF, 36 pp

FAO Crop Data 0210 - PDF, 44 pp


CO2 Fertilization

Global Greening’ Sounds Good.  In the Long Run, It’s Terrible. 0718 - More photosynthesis doesn’t mean more food.  Extra CO2 can make plants less nutritious. More plants won’t prevent climate change.  If respiration catches up ith photosynthesis, this huge carbon reservoir could spill back into our air.

Why More CO2 May Not Lead to More-Productive Crops 0518

Antarctic Ice Reveals Earth’s Accelerating Plant Growth 0417

Global Greening May Soak Up Less CO2 than Projected 0317

Global Warming May Not Be So Great for Plant Life, after All 0615 - gain range near poles, but lose far more in tropics

Findings Cast Doubt on Plant Benefits from Rising CO2 - 0515

Carbon Emissions Help Make Earth Greener 0613  

More CO2 Yields Growth Spurt, then Decline 0412
     Yields run up against other limiting factors, especially nitrogen.
More CO2 Cuts Plant Protein 0408
     The slide below explains what is going on.  With less protein in leaves, caterpillars must munch more leaves to survive.

CO2 & Temp Effect on Peanut Forage 0205 - PDF

Duke Tree CO2 Fertilize 0204

Agriculture & Ecosystems - IPCC 2001 - PDF, 108 pp

Flower Power (CO2 Fertilization) - Wittwer 0492


Flood Effects

Canada’s Record Rains Cut Wheat Acreage to 3-Year Low 0714

Extreme Weather Threatens Canadian Economy 0713  

Failure to Prevent Floods Could Push Up British Food Prices 0713 

Farmers Fail to Feed UK After Extreme Weather Hits Wheat Crop 0613 

After Drought, Rains Plague Midwest Farms 0613  

British Farms in Crisis from Relentless Floods 0213 

Misc.

Geo-Engineering Problem - Dimming the Sky Won’t Save the World’s Harvests 0818

Changing Climate Could Worsen Foods’ Nutrition 0317

Earth Has Lost 1/3 of Arable Land in Past 40 Years 1215

The Complex Relationship between Agriculture and Climate Change 0715

Global Warming May Not Be So Great for Plant Life, after All 0615 - gain range near poles, but lose far more in tropics

Crop-Loss Farmers Sell Their Children to Survive 0515

Farming Absorbs 22% of Cost of Disasters in Developing Countries 0315

Success of ‘Land Sparing' Will Depend on Global Economics, Regulations 1214

Western Diet's Spread Bad for Health, Climate?  It Doesn't Have to Happen 1114

Kale or Fracking?  Farmers and Corporations Fight It Out for Water 1114

More Than 40% of China's Arable Land Degraded 1114

Getting Beyond Just Wheat, Corn and Rice 0514

World Food Security at Risk as Variety of Crops Shrinks 0314

Tech Experts Work to Help Farms Weather Climate Effects 1113

Soil Carbon Is Just Blowing in the Wind 0813

Great Lakes Area Draws World Attention for Food 0713  

In Mekong Delta, Rice Boom Has Steep Environmental Cost 0713  

Warmer Climate Threatens Africa’s Vital Cassava Crop 0513 

World Fish Catch Falls Another 2% 1112

Wild Rice Gene Boosts Yields 0812

Bumper 2011 Grain Harvest Fails to Rebuild Global Stocks 0112 

Trees Boost African Crop Yields 1011

Can the United States Feed China? 0311 

Great Food Crisis of 2011 0111

Wheat Genome May Help Tackle Food Shortages 0810  

Nile Delta Becoming Poisoned by Salt Water Intrusion 0110 

Forests to Fall for Food and Fuel 0708 

Rice Intensification System to Counter Drought 0907 - PDF


by Gene Fry 2018