Global Warming - So What?
A Library about Climate Change
Heat
GO TO.US. .Oceans. .Elsewhere. .World. .Patterns. .Paleo. .Future. .Clouds. .Sulfates. .Sensitivity.
Clouds reflect 59-60 W per square meter and the atmosphere 1/3 that much. 
Reflection off ice and snow is more typically in the low 70%’s. Absorption by water without ice and snow depends greatly on the sun angle: 94% when the sun is overhead, but much less at the angle becomes more glancing.
Immediately below are 14 graphs of Earth's temperature history over the past 600 million years, over ever shorter time spans. The 600-million-year graph below uses surface temperatures, but the graph below it uses deep ocean ones. Until the past century, the fastest warming shown below has been about 0.4°C per century.
Farther below are articles about heat, arranged in 10 major groups: US Temperatures, Ocean Heat, Warming Outside the US, World Temperatures, Heating Patterns, Paleo-Temperature Records (see the graphs just below), Future Temperatures, Clouds & Heat, Sulfates & Cooling, and Temperature Sensitivity (& Speed) to Doubled CO2. The many articles on permafrost and seabed methane hydrates are found on the Carbon + & - page.
Month and year follow each article's name. PDF files are so marked, after month and date, some with authors noted. Within sections, more recent files appear above older files.
Diagrams are generally immediately below the summary articles from which they were taken.
What's the Hottest Earth Has Ever Been? 0620 - 3,700°F in Hadean era, not long after formation of Earth, in the aftermath of the Moon's formation. Since Snowball Earth about 800 million years ago (Mya), Earth's average surface temperatures reached around 90°F repeatedly, as recently as 92 Mya. 73-82°F during PETM, 55 Mya. Earth's surface is currently near 60°, during an interglacial, but with much ice still at both poles. Since Snowball Earth, our planet has rarely been as cold as the ice ages of the past 2-3 million years, since long ice ages ending about 270 Mya (and starting as plants began colonizing land 370 Mya).
Below, a less detailed and older graph.
Above temperatures (and CO2 levels) are approximate. Below is 67 million years of temperature data from NOAA.
A 2nd view:
And a 3rd view:
The PETM warming spike 55 million years ago was ~ 4 to 5°C (or 6°C, estimate not shown here) over just 10,000 years. That’s 0.04 to 0.06°C / century.
Temperature variation from peak to nadir increased, espcially over the last 1-2 million years, after North America joined South America.
Temperature rose from -7°C to +2 to 4°C over “short” time spans 18,000, 130,000, 240,000, and 330,000 years ago.
Temperatures at left are from the ice surface at the time, rather than from the deep ocean (above). Earth’s surface may have warmed 50% as fast as the south pole / Vostok, better 62% (Snyder 2016).
Vostok warmed ~8°C from 18,000 to 10,000 years ago, which is ~0.1°C / century. However, polar regions have warmed twice as fast the planet as a whole. So, warming was 0.03 to 0.05°C / century worldwide.
Polar warming ~ 130,000 years ago was almost 10°C over only ~8,500 years, ~20% faster. Globally that’s 0.035 to 0.055°C / century.
In the graph above, the temperature / CO2 concentrations from the Vostok ice core (graph above this one) are shown as blue dots on the left hand side. The two trend lines show the best fits to that data in CO2 space, one for CO2 alone (purple) and one for CO2 plus CH4 (methane) in green.
After adjustment to global temperatures (right vertical axis) from Antarctic (Vostok) temepratures (left vertical axis), the trend lines from eras colder than today are remarkably consistent with temperatures from eras hotter than today. This gives us some confience that the more distant past and the more recent past are reasonable guides to our temperature future, about 5°C hotter than 1951-80, given CURRENT CO2 levels. Actually, current CH4 levels are about 170% above pre-industrial levels, while CO2 levels are about 50% above pre-industrial levels. So 9°C hotter than 1951-80 may be in our future.
In the graph below, Earth warmed (scale at left) by 0.6°C (0.4°C less -0.2°C) from 11,400 to 9,600 years ago. This rate was 0.033°C / century.
That’s slightly slower than the rate ~130,000 years ago, and somewhat slower than the rate from 18,000 to 11,400 years ago.
Below is "previous data”, which was based on land indicators. The above adds ocean indicators.
The graph above also suggests that our current interglacial period warming peaked about 7000 years ago. So we have been heading slowly into the next ice age. Milankovich cycle at work. A Medieval warm period peaked ~900 AD. Three Little Ice Ages show up around 1250 AD, 1500 AD, and 1750 AD. The descent into the next glacial period was interrupted about 1750 AD, with cool (volcano) blips 1815-1820 and 1885-1890.
However, the graph above shows temperatures changes in northern hemisphere SUMMERS. Due to cyclical changes in Earth’s orbit, temperatures actually ROSE during nothern hemisphere WINTERS since 7,000 years ago, as CO2 concentration gradually rose, from about 260 ppm to 280 ppm. (Baker 2017, re Marcotte)
The graph below gives another perspective on the same time period, based on multiple studies and methods.
Above: gray is from boreholes. Below: NASA Data, from thermometers
The graph above, especially the magenta line, suggests Little Ice Ages from 1100 to 1300 AD, again about 1550 to 1720 AD, and again from 1780 to 1870 AD. The Viking Greenland colony died out during the 1st. The current warming appears much larger than in the Medieval Warm Period, which peaked about 1,000 AD.
Research in 2012 indicated the 2nd was due to Columbus and other Europeans introducing their diseases to North America, which wiped out most of the people there, so the forests grew back, removing lots of CO2 from the air.
Some have connected the latter part of the 2nd Little Ice Age to the lack of sunspots during the Maunder Minimum from 1645 to 1715 AD. (Observations during the satellite era show that solar output is slightly (0.04%) lower in periods with few sunspots and slightly higher (0.04%) when sunspots peak. Sunspots during the most recent solar minima in 2008 and 2018 were nearly as few as during the Maunder Minimum. However, sunspots during 2009-2016 were not particularly sparse, in contrast to the Maunder Minimium.)
Earth's Energy Imbalance
The light blue line above is for ocean uptake of heat (from greenhouse gases mostly). The orange line is radiation by Earth from the top of the atmosphere. Since about 90% of incoming radiation is absorbed by the world ocean, the two lines are in good agreement. The trend lines are in even closer agreement. Note the ocean heating dip in 2016, when more of the heat gain wound up in the atmosphere. El Niño.
Earth's Energy Imbalance Removes Almost All Doubt from Human-Made Climate Change 0821 - Earth's energy imbalance approximately doubled from 2005 to 2019.
Heat Stored in the Earth System - Where Does the Energy Go? 0920 - Abstract. - von Schuckmann, Hansen et al. Earth gained 358 zJ over 1970-2018. This 48-year total is about 600 times annual human energy use, or 10-20 times cumulative human energy use. Over this period, the oceans account for 89% (52% in the upper 700 meters, 28% 700-2,000 meters deep, and 9% below that); land (continental crust) 6%; melting ice 4%; and atmosphere 1%. Over the shorter and most recent 2010-2018 period, these figures were 90% ocean (52-30-8%); 5% land; 3% ice; and 2% atmosphere. The rate of heat gain was 0.87±1.2 Watts / sq meter over 2010-2018. There have been various comparable estimates before and since, as shown in the diagram and spreadsheet below left. 0.47 in the diagram below right is for 1970-2018; 0.87 is for 2010-2018. It has since risen, to 1.33 (see above), now to about 700 TW over the entire globe, from 450 in some earlier years. In order to stabilize Earth’s surface temperature (at a level substantially higher than today’s unless all excess CO2 is removed immediately), Earth’s CO2 level must be reduced from 424 ppm to 350 ppm (about 4-5°C above 1880 level).
Earth Energy Imbalance Estimates, across Studies (0721) My spreadsheet summarizes studies cited in von Schuckmann's paper. It underlies the graph at left. The time trend is shown by orange dots. 0.87 Watts / sq meter = 450 TW (billion Watts) when summed across Earth’s surface. This 0.87 (450) rate is about 30 times the human rate of energy use now.
Heat Stored in the Earth System - Where Does the Energy Go? 0920 - PDF 29 pp, the main study. Earth's heat gain rose to 0.87 W per sq meter, from 0.47 averaged over 48 years or (0.40 over 51 or 56 years). Earth's rate of heat gain has increased over time, as has Earth’s surface temperature (about ~2% of the heat gain). Excerpted figures are below. The gray graph at the right is for global cumulative heat storage within continental landmasses since 1960 CE, a blow-up of the orange portion of the graph below at left.
These update the 2 graphs below, from 2 other studies. Note that Land is larger in the update.
ZJ = 10 years of US energy use. 1022 Joules = 100 years of US energy use.
The 2nd graph, at right, also from von Schuckmann, about just the ocean, (more above) is energy density (energy / area), while the graphs above are for energy summed over all the Earth’s surface.
Global Temperatures, in the Thermometer Era
An annotated version of the graph above is near the bottom of this page.
Sea + Land surface warming rate over the past century was ~1.2°C. That compares with rates of 0.03 to 0.06°C warming highlighted above: for the PETM spike 55 million years ago, and coming out out the 2nd most recent and most recent ice ages ~130 and ~10 thousand years ago. Thus,
current warming is 20 to 40 times as fast as the previous fastest warming episodes we can find.
The observed warming varies by latitude, as shown below. In general, the rate of warming increases toward the poles and is faster in the land (northern) hemisphere that in the water hemisphere. The figure also compares warming in data sets from NASA, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheri Administration, and the UK Meteorological Office. The set of 4 graphs below needs updating, especially the NASA-NOAA-UKMO one, in light of NASA’s decision in 2018 to stop reporting land surface temperatures.
The Way Forward - One or Two Views
CDR = Carbon Dioxide Removal, SRM = Solar Radiatoion Management, DAC = Direct Air Capture, RCP = Representative Concentration Pathway (8.5, 4.5, 3.4, and 2.6, in decreasing order of emissions)
GO TO.Top. .US. .Oceans. .Elsewhere. .Patterns. .Paleo. .Future. .Clouds. .Sulfates. .Sensitivity.
Heating - Now - World
The graph below shows the major factors affecting global temperatures over the past 40+ years. The horizontal axis is cumulatifve CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. It shows how the albedo factors, based in the work shown at left, have affected global temperatures.
Earth’s Climate Shatters Heat Records. 5 Charts Show How. 1023 - 1 of the charts is shown below. See original URL for 4 other charts.
Heat Waves in the Ground Are Getting More Extreme—and Perilous 1023
September’s Global Temperature Spike Has Most Climate Scientists Worried 1023
September Broke Global Heat Record by ‘Gobsmackingly Bananas’ Margin 1023
Scorching August Sets World on Path toward Perhaps the Hottest Year on Record 0923
This Summer Was Hotter for Almost Everyone in the World 0923
Where Dangerous Heat Is Surging 0923 - Wet bulb temperatures at or above 35°C (95°F) are only survivable for a minute or two - in the shade. The body is no longer able to cool by sweating.
Wet bulb temperatures above 32°C (89.6°F) are very difficult to live in and especially to work in. Productivity losses are great and deaths occur within minutes to hours, especially in work outdoors. Permanent heat damage to organs is not unlikely. Even a little below 32°C wet-bulb, work for days can permanently damage the kidneys and even the heart.
Summer of 2023 and August 2023 Were the Hottest on Record Globally 0923 - See # of Days, Cities with Wet-Bulb Temps > 32°C in 2050 for daily updates.
Amid Record Heat, Even Indoor Factory Workers Enter Dangerous Terrain 0823
‘Off-the-Charts Records’ - Heat at High End of Projections, Impacts Worse 0823
Heat Waves Aren’t Just Getting Hotter, They’re Stickier Too 0723
Potentially Fatal Combinations of Humidity and Heat Emerging across the Globe 0520 - See wet bulb temperatures. At the original URL (here), zoom in and out for more detail on an updating map, including all place names, dates, and wet bulb termpreatures recorded. Using hourly data insteada of daily average data, it appears that 10 places have already equalled or exceeded the 35°C threshold of human survivability (lethal wet bulb temperature). These include 3 in Mexico, 2 each in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, and 1 each in India, Australia, and Venezuela. A wet-bulb temperature calculator is here.
July Was the Hottest Month on Record 0823
2023 Is on Track to Be the Hottest Year on Record 0823
These Places Baked the Most during Earth’s Hottest Month on Record 0823
‘Era of Global Boiling Has Arrived,’ Says UN Chief 0723
July 2023 Is Set to Be the Hottest Month on Record 0723
We Are Living through Earth’s Hottest Month on Record 0723
When It Comes to Climate Change, There's No Such Thing as a New Normal 0723
7 Eye-Popping Numbers from the Worldwide Heat Wave 0723
Heat Waves Grip 3 Continents, as Climate Change Warms Earth 0723
This June Was the Hottest on Record and July Is Getting Hotter 0723
The 10 Hottest Days Ever, in Early July, Put People and Livelihoods at Risk 0723 (+ 5 more days in mid-July, also warmer than record before July 2023.)
Last Week Was Record Hot, Led by Sea Surface, Record Antarctic Sea Ice Loss 0723
Record-Breaking Global Temperatures Now Are Likely Highest in 100,000+ Years 0723
Earth Reaches Hottest Day Ever Recorded, 3 Days in a Row 0723
Last Month Was the Planet’s Hottest June on Record, by a Huge Margin 0723
Why a Sudden Surge of Broken Heat Records Is Scaring Scientists 0723
Climate Change Is ‘Out of Control’ after Likely Hottest Week on Record - UN 0723
New Record for Hottest Day Ever Will Be Broken, Again and Again. 0723
El Niño Is Here and the World Must Prepare for More Extreme Heat, WMO Warns 0723
Earth Keeps Breaking Temperature Records due to Global Warming 0723
World's Hottest Day since Records Began 0723
Record World Land, Sea Temperatures, as Climate Change Fuels Extremes 0723
The World Just Saw Its Hottest Early June on Record 0623
Fears of Hottest Year on Record as Global Temperatures Spike 0623
World Sees 2nd-Hottest May in 30 Years, as Antarctic Ice Reaches New Low 0623
Above, areas shown in black are uninhabitable now. Areas cross-hatched in black will become uninhabitable about 2070.
The Unexpected Force That May Make Us Get Less Sleep 0523 - nighttime warming
How Pesticides Intensify Global Warming 0123
Earth’s Temperature Could Near Danger Point with Return of El Niño 0123
Warning of Unprecedented Heat Waves, as El Niño Set to Return in 2023 - 0123
The Last 8 Years Have Been the Warmest on Record, and 2022 is #5 - 0123
Past 8 Years Were the 8 Hottest Ever, Says UN 1122
Earth Is on Track to Warm Above 2°C despite Climate Action 1122
Extreme Heat Could Make Parts of Asia, Africa Uninhabitable in Decades 1022
Hotter Summers Are Baking the Water Out of Soil, at Unprecedented Rates 1022
Northern Hemisphere Extreme Summer Drought 20 X Likelier by Climate Change 1022
Earth Just Experienced Its Warmest or 5th Warmest Summer on Record 0922
Australia Fires Damaged Ozone Layer, Caused Major Warming 0822
Extreme Heat Is Slamming the World's 3 Biggest Economies All at Once 0822
The Year Summer Got Serious 0722
Climate Change Is Making Heat Waves around the Globe More Frequent 0722
World Will Not Avoid 1.5°C Global Warming 'Tipping Point', Researchers Warn 0622
Sweltering Streets - 100s of Homeless Die in Heat 0622
The Last 7 Years Are Earth’s Warmest on Record, as It Approaches 1.5°C - 0122
Will Tonga Volcanic Eruption Affect Global Climate? 0122 - not much. Tonga’s SO2 emissions were only 2% of Pinatubo’s.
2021 Ended as 5th-Hottest Year, with Push from Spiking Methane 0122
2021 Ranks as 5th Hottest Year, With More Data Coming Soon 0122
Killer Heat Forces Cities to Adapt Now or Suffer 0821
Earth's Hottest Month on Record - the US West Burned while the East Flooded 0821
Nowhere Is Ready for This Heat 0621
Earth's Energy Imbalance Doubled from 2005 to 2019 - 0621 - take 3 - The rate of heating doubled, in the air and ocean.
Earth Is Now Trapping an ‘Unprecedented’ Amount of Heat, NASA Says 0621 - take 2 on study - Earth’s heat gain roughly doubled from 2005 to 2019. That’s very bad.
The Fundamental Climate Metric, Earth’s Energy Imbalance, Takes Worrying Turn 0621 - take 1 on study
Global Temperatures Are Cooler in 2021 than Other Recent Years 0521
NASA Direct Measurements, including Aerosols, Show Humans Cause Climate Change 0421
Extremely Hot Summers Now Happen 200 Times More Often than 50 Years Ago 0720
Earth Warmed as Virus Reduced CO2 and Sulfur Emissions 0221
Human Aerosol Cooling Obscures 1/4 of Global Heating since 1750 - 0121
2020 Joins 2016 as Hottest Year on Record 0121
Where 2020's Record Heat Was Felt the Most 0121
2020 Ties 2016 as Hottest Yet, European Analysis Shows 0121
Global Temperatures Already 1.2ºC Above Pre-Industrial Levels 1220
Another Month on a Warming Planet - a Record-Hot November 1220
2020 Likely to Be One of Warmest Years on Record, despite La Niña 1020
September Was Earth’s Warmest on Record. 2020 May Become Hottest Year. 1020
Scientists Say 2020 May Smash Heat Record 1020
2020 Had the Warmest September on Record 1020
Heat Stored in the Earth System - Where Does the Energy Go? 0920 - Abstract. - von Schuckmann, Hansen et al. Excerpt+: Earth gained 358 zJ over 1970-2018. This 48-year total is about 600 times annual human energy use, or 10-20 times cumulative human energy use. Over this period, the oceans account for 89% (52% in the upper 700 meters, 28% 700-2,000 meters deep, and 9% below that); land (continental crust) 6%; melting ice 4%; and atmosphere 1%. Over the shorter and most recent 2010-2018 period, these figures were 90% ocean (52-30-8%); 5% land; 3% ice; and 2% atmosphere. The rate of heat gain was 0.87±1.2 Watts / sq meter over 2010-2018. There have been various comparable estimates before and since, as shown in the diagram and spreadsheet below left. 0.47 in the diagram below right is for 1970-2018; 0.87 is for 2010-2018. In order to stabilize Earth’s surface temperature (at a level substantially higher than today’s unless all excess CO2 is removed immediately), Earth’s CO2 level must be reduced from 412 ppm to 353 ppm.
Earth Hasn’t Warmed This Fast in 10s of Millions of Years 0920
Northern Hemiphere Endures Its Hottest Summer on Record 0920
Climate Change Continues ‘Unabated' despite COVID-19 Lockdowns 0920 - Emissions heading toward pre-pandemic levels, remarkable heat wave in Siberia, 1 in 4 chance of passing 1.5°C by 2025
Extreme Heat Made August the 4th-Warmest on Record 0920
Death Valley Soars to 130°, Potentially Earth’s Hottest since at Least 1931 - 0820
July 2020 Was 1 of Earth's 3 Warmest July’s on Record 0820
Last Decade Was Earth's Hottest on Record as Climate Crisis Accelerates 0820
1st Half of 2020 Was 2nd-Warmest on Record 0720
World Could Hit 1.5° Warming Threshold by 2024 – UN 0720
June 2020 Tied for 2nd Hottest on Record 0720
2020 Likely to Be the Warmest Year on Record Globally 0620
Last Month Was the Hottest May on Record 0620
April Global Temperatures Tie Record, with Highest CO2 Levels in 3 Million Years 0520
11 of 12 Hottest Years Have Occurred since 2000 - 0420
2020 Expected to Be Earth's Warmest Year on Record 0420
Global Surface Air Temperature for March 2020 - 0420 - Emphasis on Europe, from Copernicus satellite data. Near record warm.
January Was the Most Unusually Warm Month Ever Recorded without El Niño 0220
January 2020 Becomes Earth’s Warmest January on Record 0220
2019 Was Another Record Year for Ocean Temperatures, Data Show 0120 - 2019, then 2018, 2017, 2015, 2016. 2016 featured less heat in ocean, more in air.
2019 Was 2nd Hottest Year on Record 0120
Decade of ‘Exceptional' Heat Likely to Be Hottest on Record 1219
We’re Living through Earth’s 2nd-Hottest Year, NOAA Finds 1119
Earth Sizzles through October, as Another Month Is the Warmest on Record 1119
Earth Is Having Its 2nd-Warmest Year on Record in 2019 - 1019
Earth Just Had Its Hottest September, as 2019 Heads for the Record Books 1019
The Northern Hemisphere Just Had Its Warmest Summer on Record 0919
NOAA Data Confirms July Was Hottest Month Ever Recorded 0819
July Confirmed as Hottest Month Recorded 0819
July Was Earth’s Hottest Month on Record, Beating or Tying July 2016 - 0819
July 2019 Will Likely Be the Hottest Month Ever Measured 0719
July on Course to Be Hottest Month Ever, Say Climate Scientists 0719
Earth Just Had Its Hottest June on Record, on Track for Warmest July 0719
Heat Wave Nudged Earth to Its Hottest June on Record 0719
2019 On Track to Be Earth's 3rd Warmest Year on Record, NOAA Says 0619
Satellite Confirms Key NASA Temperature Data - Earth Is Warming – Fast 0419
2018 Was the 4th-Warmest Year on Record, NOAA and NASA Reveal 0219
2018 Was 4th Warmest Year on Record, in More Evidence of New Normal 0119
Last Year Was 4th Warmest, Greenhouse Gases Up - EU's Copernicus 0119
Very Hot and Very Dry Conditions Have Doubled Worldwide 1118
Past 4 Years Are Hottest on Record 1118
2018 Is Shaping Up to Be the 4th-Hottest Year. Yet We’re Still Not Prepared for Global Warming. 0818
Halfway to Boiling - the City at 50°C - 0818
Science Says Record Heat, Fires Worsened by Climate Change 0718
How Record Heat Wreaked Havoc on 4 Continents 0718
Extreme Global Weather Is 'the Face of Climate Change’ 0718
2018 Is on Pace to Be the 4th-Hottest Year on Record 0718
Summer of Extreme Temperatures Continues, to the Beat of Climate Change 0718
The Big Heat Wave - from Algeria to the Arctic. But What’s the Cause? 0718
The Global Heat Wave That's Been Killing Us 0718
What Climate Change Looks Like In 2018 - 0718
Red-Hot Planet - All-time Heat Records Set All over the World Last Week 0718
Last 3 Years Were Hottest on Record, Severe Weather Hits 2018 - U.N. 0318
State of the Climate - How the World Warmed in 2017 - 0218 - record heat overall and in the oceans beneath the surface
PyeongChang Climate Extremes 0218
2017 Was Once Again One of the Hottest on Record 0118
2017 Was the Hottest Non-El Niño Year on Record, Thanks to Global Warming 0118
2017 Will Rank among Earth’s 5 Warmest Years, Likely 2nd - 1217
2016’s Record Heat Not Possible without Global Warming, Study Says 1217
If Oceans Stopped Absorbing Climate Change’s Heat, Land Would Average 122°F - 1117
Arctic Data Shows No Pause in Global Warming 1117
2017 Set to Be 1 of 3 Hottest Years on Record 1117
Right-Wing Media Could Not Be More Wrong about 1.5°C Carbon Budget Paper 0917
Global Warming May Be Occurring More Slowly than Previously Thought 0917
Last Month Was Hottest July, and Hottest Month, on Record – NASA 0817
July Ranks as 2nd Hottest Month on Record - NOAA 0817
Draft National Climate Assessment Finds Drastic Climate Change Impact on US 0817
The full 545-page draft is available on the Overviews page.
2 quotes are "Many lines of evidence demonstrate that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are primarily responsible for the observed climate changes in the industrial era. There are no alternative explanations, and no natural cycles are found in the observational record, that can explain the observed changes in climate. (Very high confidence)”
“Atmospheric CO2 levels have now passed 400 ppm, last seen during the Pliocene, approximately 3 million years ago, when global mean temperatures were 3.6° to 6.3°F (2° to 3.5°C) higher than preindustrial (1750) and sea levels were 66 ± 33 feet (20 ± 10 meters) higher than today. (High confidence)"
At Midway Point, 2017 Is 2nd-Hottest Year on Record 0717
May Continues a Ridiculous Warm Streak for the Planet 0617
Warm Arctic Fuels 2nd-Warmest April on Record 0517
March Was 2nd Hottest on Record Globally 0417
State of the Warming Climate in 2016 - 'Truly Uncharted Territory’ 0317
February Was 2nd Hottest on Record, despite Flat Global CO2 Emissions 0317
Humans Causing Climate to Change 170 Times Faster than Natural Forces 0217
Extreme Heat Wave Days Already Hitting Poorer Nations More than Rich 0317
Climate Changing Faster than at Any Time since End of Ice Age - Shell 1991 - 0217
Independent Study Confirms NOAA's Conclusion - Earth Is Getting Warmer 0217
We May Be Closer than We Thought to Dangerous Climate Thresholds 0117
We’re Now Breaking Global Temperature Records Once Every 3 Years 0117
Global Warming Never Paused, Could Soon Accelerate - NASA GISS Director 0117
2016 Officially Declared Hottest Year on Record 0117
Already Debunked Global Warming 'Hiatus' Gets Another Dunking 0117
Study Confirms NOAA Finding of Faster Global Warming 0117
2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record, UN Says 1116
2011-2015 Was the Hottest 5-Year Period on Record 1116
Another Month, Another Broken Global Temperature Record 1016
Earth Is Hottest in 115,000 Years, due to Human-Driven Climate Change 1016
We Just Lived through the Hottest Summer in Recorded History 0916
Earth's Unprecedented Warm Streak Continues, as More Records Fall - NOAA 0916
August Ties July as Hottest Month Ever on Record 0916
Earth Sets Record for Hottest August, Extending Warm Streak Another Month 0916
La Niña Fizzles, Making Record Warm Global Temperatures More Likely 0916
Earth Is Warming at a Pace ‘Unprecedented in 1,000 Years' – NASA 0816
Cruel Summer - Floods, Fires and Heat 0816
Earth's Hottest Month on Record Was July 2016 - 0816
2015 Set Frenzy of Climate Records 0816
Global Warming Happening Faster Than Predicted – WMO 0716
1st Half of 2016 Blows Away Temperature Records 0716
Earth's Hot Streak Continues with Warmest May since at Least 1880 - 0616
The Temperature Spiral Has an Update - to 2100. It’s Not Pretty. 0516
2016 to Be Hottest Year Yet, as April Smashes Records 0516
March Temperature Smashes 100-Year Global Record 0416
March Was Earth's 11th-Straight Warmest Month on Record 0416
Earth Crushed Temperature Milestones This Winter, Nearing Climate Guardrail 0316
As Temperatures Soar, New Doubts Arise about Holding Warming to 2°C - 0316
Record Surge in 2016 Temperatures Adds Urgency to Climate Deal 0316
Earth’s Temperature Just Reached a Terrifying Milestone 0316
February 2016 Was the Month Warmest above Average Ever Recorded - NASA 0316
Here's What Climate Change Has Done to the Season Formerly Known as Winter 0316
Why Is 2016 Smashing Heat Records? 0316
Ted Cruz's Favorite Temperature Data Just Got a Lot Hotter, via Satellite Data Revisions 0316
Satellites Show February 2016 Temperatures Hit All-Time Highs 0316
Earth Is Warming 50 x Faster than When It Comes Out of an Ice Age 0216
2015 Was the Hottest Year. 2016 Will Likely Be Hotter. 0116
2015 Is Warmest Year on Record, NOAA and NASA Say 0116
2015 Shattered Global Temperature Record by Wide Margin 0116
Early Data Shows 2015 Blew Away Previous Record for Hottest Year 0116
Earth is Experiencing a Global Warming Spurt 0116
Rising Lake Temperatures May Worsen Algae Blooms 1215 - warming 0.61° per decade in world’s 235 largest lakes
Met Office Says 2016 ‘Very Likely' to Be Warmest on Record 1215
2015 Likely to Be Warmest on Record, Says UN Weather Body 1115
October 2015 Becomes 1st Month 1°C Warmer than Average 1115
Warming Set to Breach 1°C Mark 1115
Earth Just Had Its Warmest September on Record (re Japan, #2 re NASA) 1015
Scorching Year Continues With the Hottest Summer on Record 0915
August Smashes Global Heat Record, as Giant El Niño Builds 0915
2015 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record 'by a Mile' 0815
Global Warming Is Reversing 1,800 Years of Natural Ocean Cooling 0815
July Added to String of Record Hot Months Globally 0815
Global Warming Seen Lurking behind This Summer’s Deadly Heat Waves 0815
Will El Niño 2015 Rival 1997, the Strongest Year on Record? 0815
Latest Forecast Suggests 'Godzilla El Niño' May Be Coming to California 0815
2015 Global Temperatures Are Right in Line with Climate Model Predictions 0815 Below, black is modeled, color is actual.
Killer Heat Grows Hotter around the World. This Is Just the Beginning. 0815
Climate Models Are Even More Accurate than You Thought 0815
1st Half of 2015 Was Hottest Ever Recorded 0715
Most Extreme Weather Has Climate Change Link 0615
2015 Is Likely to Beat 2014 as the Warmest Year on Record 0615
May 2015 Global Temperature Data Continue Breaking Records 0615
New Temperature Records Highlight Global Warming's Continued Rise 0515
2015 Hottest Year to Date, Could Top 2014 Record 0415
The Climate Is Starting to Change Faster 0315
Study Monitors CO2 Levels and Earth's Outgoing Radiation from the Ground 0215
No, the Sun Isn’t Driving Global Warming 0215
Hot January Extends Run of Record Worldwide Warmth 0215
Climate Models Don't Over-Predict Warming, Study Shows 0115
It’s Official - 2014 Was the Hottest Year - NASA, NOAA 0115
2014 Was Officially the Globe’s Hottest Year - Japan 0115
2014 Set for Record Hot; Record Cold Is Thing of the Past 1114
Sea surface temperatures seem a sure bet to set a record. Combined sea and land temperatures are more likely than not to set a record. Land surface temperatures are likely to be just in the top 5.
U.S., British Data Show 2014 Could Be Hottest Year on Record 1114
Note the globe’s major cool spot is the central (and eastern) US.
NASA, Other Data Show Globe Had Warmest October 1114
Warming Earth Heading for Hottest Year on Record - NOAA 1014
September Was Warmest on Record, NASA Data Shows 1014
NASA Ranks This August as Warmest on Record 0914
Born after 1985? Global Warming Is the Norm 0814
July Checks In as 4th Warmest on Record Worldwide 0814
A Double Scorcher - June Joins May with Heat Record 0714
2013 Was the 37th Consecutive Year of Above-Average Temperature 0214
Ozone Treaty Accidentally Slowed Global Warming 1113
IPCC Declares "Near Certainty" on Human-Driven Warming 0813
Global Warming Is Just on Pause. It's Down to the Oceans 0713
Climate Extremes Are Unprecedented 0713
El Niño Unusually Active in Late 20th Century 0613
Study Confirms Warming, without Thermometers 0413
Bounding the Role of Black Carbon in the Climate System 0213
2011 Was Hottest La Niña Year 1111
Earth Warmer than Average for 300 Months in a Row 0711
Record Breaking Temperatures 0610
April 2010 Warmest on Record 0510
Global Warming Is Not Slowing - WMO 1209
Graph World Temp, 5 Forcings & Predicted - See graph below.
—————————————————————————
from IPCC (2013), Executive Summary
GO TO.Top. .Oceans. .Elsewhere. .World. .Patterns. .Paleo. .Future. .Clouds. .Sulfates. .Sensitivity.
Heating - Now - US - Analysis by Dr. Fry
US Cities Summer Highs Temperature Trends - Dr. Fry’s Research
The 26 places below have a slight negative urban heat island effect trend.
But the 330 below those here have a slight postive one.
330 Cities, 41 Years
The graph at right shows recent temperature changes and trends for 330 places scattered around the contiguous (lower 48) US. Allocation of places among regions and states is based partly on area and partly on population. So is allocation of places within each state.
US summer highs in general (averaged over 122 days each year from June 1 thru September 30) have risen a lot over the past 40 years, almost all in the last 20.
In contrast, the average of daily lows in winter does not show such a trend.
The winter lows trend is up for the 1st half of the period, and down for the 2nd half.
The 42-year trend for winter daily lows was slightly upward.
The map below shows the 330 places + 18 more in Alaska and Hawaii.
100% of states and 95% of places showed a warming trend for summer highs over the past 20 years (1995-2015). 100% of states and 92% of places showed one over the past 40 years (1975-2015).
The faster warming areas, if they keep warming at their respective rates for the most recent 20 years, will have typical daily summer high temperatures before 2100 that are as hot as Las Vegas ones NOW.
64 of the places that woud get as hot as Las Vegas relatively soon are shown in the table below (also on the Home page). 51 would get that hot by 2100. Overall, 82 of the 330 (including, not showmn, 10 more in Texas, 5 in California, 4 in Kansas, and 12 elsewhere) would get summers as hot as Las Vegas now by 2100 - IF 20-year trends continue.
See the Data page for full data for the 330.
If warming continues at the rate experienced over the past 20 years, 29 of the 49 states examined experience typical summers as hot as Las Vegas now before 2200. 8 of them become that hot by 2100, including Kansas.
119 places , as well as 7 in Alaska and 2 in Hawaii, are shown on the 2 maps below. The upper map shows trends (°F / century) over the last 20 years, the lower map over the last 40 years. More detail is available on the Data page.
The trends are almost identical (+5.8 and +10.5 or 10.4°F / century) for the 330 places and its subset of 119. The 330 includes most US weather stations that are largely free of missing data. New Haven CT, Stockton CA, Provo UT, Lancaster CA, Pensacola FL, and Visalia CA are the largest metro areas without a weather station included.
2017 Update
When will 2012 heat, the US record to date, become the new normal?
Years when 2012 (the hottest summer in US history) summer highs are expected to be the new normal, assuming warming continues at the rate for the last 20 years - in 48 states are shown on the Data page, in the States Warming Summary table.
2012 was cooler than normal in Florida, Louisiana, Washington, Oregon, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Arizona, California, Tennessee, New England, and New Jersey. But 2012 heat could become the new normal in Nevada (2016), Virginia (2017), Texas (2018), Idaho (2019), Utah (2021), New York & Pennsylvania (2022), Kentucky (2025), Colorado & New Mexico (2026), Wyoming (2030), and Kansas (2032).
Below are the summary graphs for the 8 major regions, based on the 119 places.
Place and state graphs are on the Data page.
US 26 Cities Other Temperature Trends - also Dr. Fry’s Research
Trends in daily winter highs are less pronounced in the last 22 years, but appreciably greater over the last 43 years.
While trends in summer and winter daily highs are quite pronounced, trends in daily summer lows are not. Trends in winter daily lows are not pronounced either over the 43 years. But there are strong and opposite trends in winter lows for the 1st and 2nd halves of the study period. See below.
See Data page for more details.
Heating - Now - US - Other Studies & News
Phoenix Breaks Heat Record, as City Hits 110°F on 54th Day This Year 0923
Louisiana Sees ‘Unprecedented’ Wildfires amid Record Heat, Drought 0823
More than 111 Million Americans Face Extreme Heat 0823
Phoenix Just Posted the Hottest Month Ever Observed in a U.S. City 0823 
Extreme Heat Is Covering Even More U.S. Territory than Earlier This Summer 0723
US and Europe Heat Waves ‘Virtually Impossible’ without Climate Change 0723
This Week Will Be the Summer’s Hottest So Far over the Lower 48 - 0723
Inside the Most Extreme Heat Wave the Southern U.S. Has Faced 0723
Phoenix Heat Breaks Records – Again 0723
Heat Index over 105°F Bakes US from Coast to Coast 0723
Relentless US Heat Wave Reaching Maximum Strength 0723
5 Things to Know about the Brutal U.S. Heat Wave 0723
Phoenix, Salt Lake City Set High Temperature Records. Where’s the Next? 0723
Record-Breaking US Heat Could Linger into August 0723
Phoenix Sets New All-Time Record with 97° Overnight Low 0723
Phoenix Breaks Record with 19th Straight Day of 110°F Highs in a Row 0723
Houston Confirms 1st Heat Death; Northern Hemisphere Boils in Severe Weather 0723
Long Heat Wave Still Chokes Southwest, as High Temperatures Move East 0723
Coast-to-Coast Heat Dome Makes Temperatures Soar, Threatens All-Time Records 0723
Millions under US Heat Warnings, as Record Temperatures to Continue 0723
Extreme Heat Is Here to Stay. Why Are We Not More Afraid? 0623
Texas Sets New Power Use Record as Dangerous Heat Sweeps Southern U.S. 0623
Emergency Room Visits and 911 Calls for Heat Illness Spike in Texas Heat Wave 0623
Texas’s Night Temperatures Portend New, More Dangerous Kind of Heat Wave 0623
Brutal, Early Heat Wave in Texas. Climate Change Is Fueling It. 0623
Extreme Heat Covers Areas from Texas to Mexico 0623 - most of north and northeast Mexico
The Troubling Heat in Texas and Its Ties to Climate Change 0623
Puerto Rico Is So Hot This Week, It’s Astonishing Some Meteorologists. 0623
Our US Winters Are Warming Faster than Our Summers 0323
Worcester, Massachusetts Had Its Warmest Winter in History 0323
100s of US Eastern Warm Records, Western Cold Records Set This Week 0223 - Map below is averaged across all 4 seasons.
Alaska’s Northernmost City Posts Warmest Winter Temperature on Record 1222
It Takes a Village to Map the Urban Heat Island Effect 1122
Summer in Worcester Mass., Was 2.4°F Hotter This Year than the 50-Year Average 0922
Dozens of Records Smashed in Midwest during Late-September Heat Wave 0922
California's Death Valley Hit 127°F, the Hottest September Day on Earth 0922
No September on Record in the US West Has Seen a Heat Wave like This 0922
Heat Wave in US West Breaks Records, Threatens California Grid 0922
Major Heat Wave to Swell over Lower 48 after Records Fall in Northwest 0822
Record Highs Roast Northwest; Heat Wave Looms for Rest of Lower 48 - 0722
Brutal Heat from Phoenix to Boston Triggers Alerts for 100 Million 0722
The Northern Hemisphere Is Baking, as Fires Rip through Europe 0722
Extreme Heat Prompts Alerts in 28 States, as Texas, Oklahoma Hit 115° - 0722
Blistering Heat Bakes the US Plains with Highs Up to 115° - 0722
A Texas Meteorologist Warned of Power Outages. Then the Lights Went Out. 0722
Brutal Heat Bakes US Southeast, with More Record Highs Forecast Thursday 0622
US Heat Wave Breaks Records as More than 70 Million under Warnings 0622
US Summers Are Hotter than Ever Before 0622
US Heat Wave Brings Historically High Temperatures to Dozens of States 0522
Extreme Heat Linked to Rise in US Death Rates 0522
Europe and US Set for Scorching, Dry Summer, Scientists Say 0522
Record Heat Fueling Severe Storms, Tornadoes in Central U.S. 0522
Texas Toast - Heat Crushed Records Saturday and Will Swell Northward 0522
Record Heat to Bake California as April Snowpack Nears 70-Year Low 0422
Southern California to See Steep Hike in Fire Danger, due to Warming 0222
Super Bowl LVI in Los Angeles Could Be the Hottest on Record 0222
1/3 of Americans Already Face above-Average Warming 0222
America’s Hottest City Is Nearly Unlivable in Summer. Can Cooling Tech Save It? 0122
New England Is Warming Faster than the Rest of the Planet 1221
Alaska Sets Record High December Temperature of 19.4°C 1221 - That’s 67°F. December in Alaska.
U.S. West Sizzled in a November Heat Wave and Snow Drought 1221
Chesapeake Bay Is Warming Faster than Ocean Surface Generally 1121
Temperatures Soar as Washington & Oregon Baked by Another Major Heat Wave 0821
Californians Are Tired of Doing Their Part during Triple-Digit Heat 0721
‘Nowhere Is Safe’ - Heat Shatters Vision of Pacific Northwest as Climate Refuge 0721
American West Stuck in Cycle of ‘Heat, Drought and Fire’, Experts Warn 0721
Western US Expects More High Temperatures, as over 18 Million Face Heat Alerts 0721
No Escape from the Desperate Heat in California’s Interior 0721
As Temperatures Soared to 128°, Death Valley Smashed Heat Records in June 0721
Death Valley Soars to 130°, Matching Earth’s Hottest in at Least 90 Years 0721
Death Valley Recorded Earth’s Hottest 24-Hour Average on Sunday 0721 - Overnight low was 107.7°F at Stovepipe Wells.
Climate Change Drove Western Heat Wave’s Extreme Records 0721
North America Endured Hottest June on Record 0721 - Northern Europe and Siberia also experienced an unusually hot June.
Summer Swelter Trend - West Gets Hotter Days, East Hot Nights 0721
Nowhere Is Ready for This Heat 0621 - US Northwest records for hottest temperature ever include Portland 116°F (7° hotter than previous record), Salem 117°, Hermiston OR 118°, and Seattle 108° (5° hotter than previous record).
Pacific Northwest Heat Wave Shatters Temperature Records 0621
Records Crushed in Pacific Northwest amid Historic Heat Wave 0621 - New hottest temperature ever records were also notably higher the previous ones i in Eugene and The Dalles OR, and Olympia, Hoquiam, and Stampede Pass WA.
Pacific Northwest Faces Its Most Severe Heat Wave in History 0621
Wild High Temperatures Worldwide Show the Extent of Record June Heat Wave 0621
Record-Shattering Heat Wave Bakes Western US, Raises Drought, Fire Concerns 0621
Mega-Heat Wave Peaking in West, Breaking Records, Intensifying Drought, Fires 0621
Climate Change Batters the West Before Summer Even Begins 0621
It’s Been a Decade Since Houston Was This Hot, This Early On 0621
Dangerous Heat Wave Grips Southwest as Temperatures Hit 120°F in Some Areas 0621
What Do More & Earlier 90° Days, Rising Health Toll, Say about Climate Change? 0621
Western States Sizzle under Triple-Digit Temperatures 0621
Your Weather Forecast Update - Warmer Climate Will Be the New Normal 0421
Record-Breaking Temperatures to Engulf Southwest 0421
Heat and Drought Ravaged West with Last Year; Will 2021 Be Worse? 0221
Arizona’s Heat Deaths Shattered the Record Last Year 0131
Average Northeast Winter Temperatures Have Warmed by up to 4.8°C since 1970 - 1120
Swing State Arizona Grapples with Deadly Heat 1120
Phoenix Has Hit 100° on Record-Breaking 1/2 (144) of the Days in 2020 - 1020
Rising Temperatures Put Heat on Nebraska's $7 Billion Corn Industry 0920
‘Extremely Dangerous’ Fire Threat in West after Historic Weekend Heat 0920 - 121° in LA County, 120° in San Luis Obispo, 121°in Chino, 114° in Burbank, 100° in San Francisco, 122° in Palm Springs, 125° in Death Valley, downtown LA 111°. 99% of California under excessive heat warning 121.1° in Mexicali, Mexico’s record hottest September temperature
Heat ‘Rarely Ever Seen’ Is Forecast to Roast West by the Weekend 0920
Phoenix Sets 2 Monthly Heat Records in a Row, for Record Hot Summer 0920
Death Valley Soars to 130°, Potentially Earth’s Hottest since at Least 1931 - 0820
Dangerously Intense, Prolonged, and Humid Heat Wave for Most of California 0820
California Has 1st Rolling Blackouts since 2001, as Heat Wave Bakes Western US 0820
7 East Coast States Saw Their Hottest July on Record 0820 
East Coast Heat Wave Peaks as 2nd Heat Dome Sets Up across the West 0720
Coast-to-Coast U.S. Heat Wave May Break Records, Hurt Crops 0720
Miami Just Had Its Hottest Week Ever. Blame Climate Change, Air from Sahara 0620
Oppressive Heat Approaches U.S. in Early July, as Wildfires Burn through Arizona 0720
Fading Winters, Hotter Summers Make Northeast Fastest Warming Region in US 0620
California Will Get So Hot That Mountain Streams Could Kill 0520
Record Heat Roasts South Florida. Most of the Gulf Coast Also Cooks. 0420
Climate Change Brings Summertime Heat to Florida’s Early Spring 0420
In Dozens of Cities East of the Mississippi River, Winter Never Really Happened 0320
January Heat Wave Engulfed the Eastern Half of USA, Toppling Records 0120
Rising Temperatures Are Stressing the U.S. Corn Belt 1219
The Northeast Warms Fastest in the USA - 'Our Winters Now Are Not like Our Winters Before' 1219
Record Heat and Cold Touch the 4 Corners of the U.S. This Weekend 1119
September Ties for 2nd-Warmwest on Record for Lower 48 - 1019
New England Winters Are on the Decline due to Climate Change 1019
Exceptional Heat Wave Topples October Records across Much of the U.S. 1019
Climate Change Has Increased Humidity in D.C., Making It Feel Even Hotter 0819
Alaska's Hottest Month Ever - Melting Sea Ice, Wildfires, Unexpected Die-Offs 0819
Beyond the 2°C Limit - Extreme Climate Change Has Arrived in America 0819
Extreme Heat Is Changing Sports, from the Olympics to Local Events 0719
Alaska’s Sweltering Summer Is ‘Basically off the Charts’ 0719
Dangerous Heat Wave Builds Up as Temperatures Spike in Central, Eastern U.S. 0719
Alaska Chokes on Wildfires as Heat Waves Dry Out the Arctic 0719
Anchorage Reached 90° for the 1st Time Ever 0719
Temperature Records Are Melting Away in Miami 0619
120° in the Shade?! Record-breaking, Dangerous Heat Wave Bakes U.S. West 0619
Feeling the Heat in Winter, in Alaska 0519
A Heat Wave Is Scorching the Southeast this Memorial Day Weekend 0519
One of Alaska’s Warmest Springs on Record Is Causing a Dangerous Thaw 0419
The Fastest-Warming Cities and States in the U.S. 0419
Record High US Temperatures Outpace Record Lows 2-1 - 0319
Mean Daily Summer Low Temperatures Were Warmest on Record in Lower 48 - 0918
As Temperatures Keep Trending Up, US ‘Heat Belt’ Cities Try to Stay Livable 0818
Death Valley Breaks Own Record for Hottest Month Ever Recorded on Earth 0818
Summers Are Getting Hotter Faster, Especially in North America's Farm Belt 0718
Dangerous Heat Wave Won't Let Up across U.S. 0718
Summer Days Are Getting Hotter 0618
May Was Warmest on Record for USA, Breaking Mark Set during Dust Bowl 0618
As Warming Continues, Hot Drought Becomes the Norm, Not an Exception 0518
Are We Ready for the Deadly Heat Waves of the Future? 0418
East Coast Shatters Temperature Records, Offering Preview to a Warming World 0218
We Have 5 Years to Save Ourselves from Climate Change – Harvard Scientist 0118
Hurricanes and Heat Waves - Stark Signs of Climate Change ‘New Normal’ 1217
8 states see record high average temperature for 1st 11 months of 2017.
2017 on Track to Be 3rd Hottest Year in US 1017
Fires, Heat Waves, Hurricanes - Why This Summer's Extreme Weather Is Here to Stay 0917
Potent Mix of Record Heat and Dryness Fuels Wildfires Across the West 0917
The Hottest Month Ever Recorded Was in Death Valley Last Month 0817
As the Northwest Boils, an Aversion to Air-Conditioners Wilts 0817
Miami Just Had Its Hottest Month on Record 0717
Deserts, Mountains Had Record Hot Average Temperatures for Early Summer 0717
California Has Some of Highest Temperatures Ever Recorded, amid Heat Wave 0617
It’s So Hot in Phoenix That Planes Can’t Take Off 0617
14 States See Hottest Year to Date, 18 More the 2nd to 5th Hottest 0517
Warm Winter Is a Reminder that the Era of Climate Extremes Is Here 0317
February’s US Warmth, Brought to You by Climate Change 0317
Chicago Had No Snow on the Ground in January or February, a New Record 0217
US Record Warm Days Outnumbered Record Cold Ones, 736 to 0, Last Week 0217
Heat Waves Scorch the Arctic, Australia, Parts of U.S. 0217
Northeast Warming More Rapidly than Most of US 0117
Toasty October Keeps U.S. on Track for Its 2nd-Hottest Year 1116
Record Warmth Helps Shrink U.S. Carbon Emissions 1016
Global Warming Trend Warms the U.S. West, Leaves East Shivering 0916
Eastern USA Swelters, New York City Heat Index Approaches 110°F - 0816
Warming at Alarming Rate, Lake Tahoe Reflects Rapid Sierra Climate Change 0716
Heat Dome Has 10s of Millions Sweating, from Minneapolis to Mississippi 0716
Montana’s Rivers Are Warmer than They Should Be - Bad News for Trout 0716
Alaska Has Been Breaking Heat Records like It's Going Out of Style 0716
Few in U.S. Will Escape Stifling Heat by Next Week’s End 0716 - In June, record highs for the date outnumbered lows 14:1.
June Was Record-Hot for the U.S., and $Billion Weather Disasters Surge to 8 - 0716
Heat Wave Lifts June to Record Hot Temp for U.S. 0716
Temperatures Set to Top 120°F, as Monster Heat Wave Hits Southern California 0616
Phoenix Could Hit 122° during Massive Southwest Heat Wave 0616
Western U.S. Snowpack Melting At Record Speed 0516
3rd Warmest Year-to-Date in the U.S. 0416
Do Pacific Waters Give Early Warning of East Coast Heat Waves? 0316
U.S. Posts 2nd Hottest Year on Record 0116
Warmest Christmas Eve Ever on the East Coast Is Shattering Records 1215 - see average daily temperatures below
Hoping for an Average U.S. Winter? Forget It. 1215
East Coast Heads for Record-Breaking Christmas Heat Wave 1215
At left/below, 6,000 record warm temps Dec. 1-20, 2016. Average of daily high & low temps often 9°F above average in the East.
Rising Temperatures Kick-Start Subarctic Farming In Alaska 1115
4 Western States Could See Warmest Year on Record 0915
It’s after Labor Day, So Why Is It Still So Hot? 0915
Global Warming Has Made California’s Drought Worse 0815 - Warming increased evaporation, regardless of rain.
Latest Forecast Suggests 'Godzilla El Niño' May Be Coming to California 0815
As Alaska Burns, Anchorage Sets New Records for Heat and Lack of Snow 0715
The Big Unchill 0715 - record heat in Barrow and othr parts of Alaska
Seattle on the Mediterranean 0715
Record Heat Expected for Northwest, Already Parched by Drought 0615
U.S. Summers Bringing More and More Heat 0615
Alaska Just Had Its Hottest May in 91 Years of Record-Keeping 0615
Barrow, Alaska - the Last Place You'd Expect to Find Record Warmth 0515
Scientists Pore Over Warm West, Cold East Divide 0415
California’s 2015 to Date is Its Warmest on Record 0415
Lake Tahoe’s Winter, Way of Life Threatened by Drought, Climate Change 0315
Baked Alaska - Barrow Warmer than Atlanta 0315
The Winter of 2014-15 Was the Season that Divided America 0315
17 U.S. Cities on Track for Hottest Year 1214
Hot Harbinger - Torrid Northwest Summer a Glimpse into Region’s Future 0814
Hot and Getting Hotter - Heat Islands Cooking U.S. Cities 0814
In California, Record Heat Adding to Extreme Drought 0814
As the World Warms, Part of the American Southeast Cools 0514 (see map below)
For 1st Time in 20 Years, US Cold Records May Beat Warm Ones 1213
Lake Michigan's Record Low Begins a New Era for Great Lakes? 0713
Record June Heat in US Southwest 0613
All-Time Heat Records Broken in ... Alaska! 0613
US Winter 2012-3 Warmer & Wetter Than Average 0313
2012 Broke US Heat Records 0113
2012 Smashes Record for Hottest Year in US 1212
1991-2011 Average, Less 1901-1960 Average, also on Overviews page
July 2012 Hottest Month Ever in US 0812
US 2012 Q1-2 Hottest on Record 0712
US Sets 4 Major Heat Records in First Half of 2012 0612
Record US Warmth in Q1 2012 0412
Warm Winter Hurts US Business 0212
Texas Record Heat & Drought = New Normal 1011
Texas Sets Record for Hottest Summer in US 0911
US Summer Warmest in 75 Years, New Records 0911
US Record Highs Outnumber Lows 2 to 1 1109
GO TO .Top. .US. .Oceans. .World. .Patterns. .Paleo. .Future. .Clouds. .Sulfates. .Sensitivity.
Heating - Now - Other Places
South America Was Already Burnt by a Hot Winter. Now Comes Summer. 1023
Autumn Heat Continues in Europe after Record-Breaking September 1023
Scorching Heat Follows Brazil’s Record-Warm Winter, Spiking Energy Demand 0923
Scientists Found the Most Intense Heat Wave Ever Recorded — in Antarctica 0923
Pakistan Is the Epicenter of a Global Wave of Climate Health Threats 0923
Antarctica Warming Much Faster than Predicted Is Deeply Worrying for Sea Level 0923
Mid-Winter 41.8°C (107°F) in Cuiabá, Brazil 0823
Amid Record Heat, Even Indoor Factory Workers Enter Dangerous Terrain 0823
What Arctic Ice Tells Us about Climate Change 0823
Greece Fights Wild Fires as Heat Blankets Southern Europe 0823
‘Virtually Certain’ Extreme Antarctic Events Will Get Worse without Drastic Action 0823
It’s Mid-Winter, but It’s over 100° in South America 0823 - in Brazil and Chile (Vicuña and Chiguinto in central Chile)
Winter Vanishes in the Andes, as Climate Change Meets El Niño 0823
US and Europe Heat Waves ‘Virtually Impossible’ without Climate Change 0723
It’s Scorching in Iran, and There’s Less and Less Water to Help 0723
Sizzling 115°F Heat Is Killing Phones in Italy's Sardinia Island 0723
Southern Europe Soars to Record Temperatures, as Heat Wave Peaks 0722
Italian Hospitals Report Sharp Rise in Emergency Cases, as Rome Hits 41.8°C (107°F) 0723
Tokyo Heat Smashes 150-Year Trend as Extreme Weather Bakes Globe 0723
China’s New Heat Record Was 52.2°C (126°F) July 16, at Sanbao near Turpan 0723
Beijing Swelters under Record-Breaking Run of Extreme Heat 0723
Heat Index Reached 152°F at Persian Gulf, Near Limit for Human Survival 0723
9 Regions in France Placed under Warning for Intense Heat Thursday 0723
European Heat Wave Sees Sardinia at 46°C as Greece Burns 0723
European Heat Wave Sparks Multiple Warnings, Shuts Greece’s Acropolis 0723
Europe Swept by Blistering and Potentially Record-Breaking Temperatures 0723
Italy Swelters in Deadly ‘Cerberus’ Heat Wave 0723
Canada's Northwest Territories Records Its Hottest temperature 0723
‘Hot Continent’ Perception Downplays Africa's Heat Wave Dangers 0723
Extreme Heat Is Already Straining the Mexican Power Grid 0623
Humans Approaching Limits of ‘Survivability’, as Heat Waves Engulf Parts of Asia 0623 - too hot & humid: in India, southeast Aisa, Middle East, and Sahara
A Record-Breaking Heat Wave Is Baking Northern China 0623
Extreme Heat Covers Areas from Texas to Mexico 0623
The Fastest-Warming Continent, Europe Has Already Heated by over 2°C 0623
Deaths Rise in India, as Temperatures Soar in Latest Heat Wave 0623 
Europe Keeps Breaking Heat Records as Fastest-Warming Continent 0623
China’s Fatal Heat Shows Risks of Another Scorching Asian Summer 0623
Climate Change Is Making India and Pakistan Heat More Intense 0523
Shanghai Breaks 147-Year-Old Record for May’s High Temperature 0523
India’s Workers Are Trapped in a Vicious Cycle of Coal and Heat 0523
Deadly Combo of Extreme Heat and Air Pollution Grips Parts of Southeast Asia 0523
Brutal Heat Continues to Grip Asia in Warning for the World 0523
Vietnam, Laos Suffer Record Hot Temperatures in Southeast Asia Heat Wave 0523
Spring Brings Record Heat to Europe, North Africa, Southeast Asia 0523
Record Spring Heat in Mediterranean Almost Impossible without Climate Change 0523
Hottest Ever April Recorded in Spain, Portugal as Heat Wave Hit Europe 0523
Deadly Heat Threatens the Lives and Livelihoods of 1 Billion People in India 0423
Why Asia’s Early Heat Wave Is So Alarming 0423
Severe Heat Wave Engulfs Asia, Causing Deaths and Forcing Schools to Close 0423
Heat Is Surging in India, Risking Blackouts and Even Deaths 0423
Western Europe Heads into Warm May, Offering No Drought Relief 0423
France’s Hottest Year Was Also Very Dry, as Warming Angst Mounts 0123
Record Heat Waves Push India Closer to Limit of Human Survival 0323
Greenland Temperatures Surge Up to 50°F above Normal, Setting Records 0323
India Forecasts Heat Waves after Hottest February since 1901 - 0223
Europe’s Temperatures in January Were 2.2°C above the 30-Year Average 0223
China’s Northernmost City Just Saw Its Coldest Day Ever 0123
Europe Set for Warmest January in Years, as Gas Crisis Eases 0123
Parts of Greenland Are Now Hotter than at Any Time in at Least 1,000 Years 0123
European Cities Break Temperature Records as Winter 2023 Begins Warm 0123
2022 Was the Hottest Year Yet for the UK 1222
UK, Germany, France on Pace for Their Hottest Year on Record 1222
Global Warming Has Been Twice as Fast in Europe as in the Rest of World 1122
Europe Is Seeing Its Warmest Weather on Record So Late in the Year 1022
Extreme Heat Could Make Parts of Asia, Africa Uninhabitable in Decades 1022
England’s Scorching Summer Ties 2018’s as Hottest on Record 0922
China’s Summer Heat Wave Is Breaking All Records 0922
China Reports ‘Most Severe’ Heat Wave and 3rd Driest Summer on Record 0922
Summer of ’22 Brought Record Heat, Solar Power to Europe 0922
The Middle East Is Warming Up Twice as Fast as the Rest of the World 0922
Climate Migrants Flee Iraq’s Parched Rural South, but Cities Offer No Refuge 0922
New Zealand Has Warmest Winter on Record for 3rd Straight Year 0922
Europe’s Record Heat Wave Will Be Summer Norm by 2035 - 0822
China's Unrivaled 70-Day Heat Wave 0822
Iraq Broils in Dangerous 120° Heat as Power Grid Shuts Down 0822
The Arctic Is Warming 4 Times as Fast as the Rest of the Planet 0822
China Seeds Clouds for Yangtze Basin, in Worst Heat Wave on Record 0822
By August, Tokyo Has Already Broken a Record for Annual Severe Heat Days 0822
England Records Driest July in 87 Years, amid Sizzling Heat Wave 0822
Climate Disasters in Latin America Threaten Global Food Security 0722
Hotter, Longer and More Widespread Heat Waves Scorch China 0722
Mideast Nations Wake Up to Damage from Climate Change 0722
Why This European Heat Wave Is So Scary 0722
The Northern Hemisphere Is Baking, as Fires Rip through Europe 0722
The Terrifying Truth - Britain’s a Hothouse, but One Day, 40°C Will Seem Cool 0722 - London (Heathrow) peaked at 40.2°C (104°5 F) on July 19, 2022, smashing Britain’s previous record. A village several miles to the northeast hit 40.3°.
Scorching Heat Expected to Resume Baking China This Week 0722
London’s Scorching Tube Raises Alarm over Europe’s Brutal Heat 0722
Hot Records Outpace Cool by over 10-to-1 This Year in Europe, US 0722
Ireland Records its Highest Temperature in Over a Century 0722
Climate Change Intensifying, Not Triggering, Northern Canada’s Heat Wave 0722
A 117° Day in Portugal - Record-Breaking Heat Waves Hit Europe 0722
London Set to Bake in More 40° Days as Planet Warms 0722
Italy Hits Record June Temperatures as Another Heat Wave Sweeps Europe 0622
Extreme Heat Stretches Japan’s Power Grid to Near Its Limits 0622
China Hit by Floods and Heat Waves, in Climate Double Whammy 0622
Europe Heat Wave Creeping North Leaves Record Highs in Its Wake 0622
Europe Heat Wave Smashes Temperature Records in France 0622
Spain, Germany Battle Wildfires amid Unusual Heat Wave 0622
Historic Heat Wave Underway in Europe Will Intensify into the Weekend 0622
Heat Wave Spreads across Europe, as Summer Highs Come Early 0622
Hot Air Brings Spain Its 1st Withering Heat Wave of Year 0622
Deadly Indian Heat Wave Made 30 X More Likely by Climate Crisis 0522
Spain Confronts Extreme Temperatures from Early Summer Heat Wave 0522
Historic May Heat Shatters Records in Southern and Central Europe 0522
Climate Change Has Made India’s Relentless Heat 100 Times More Likely 0522
What It’s Like to Live Through India’s Non-stop Heat Wave 0522
Europe and US Set for Scorching, Dry Summer, Scientists Say 0522
As Record-Setting Heat Blasts Pakistan, a Glacial Lake Floods a Village 0522
India’s Heat Waves Are Testing the Limits of Human Survival 0522
Climate Change Turned Up India’s Heat. But by How Much? 0522
Heat Wave Sparks Blackouts, Questions on India's Coal Usage 0522
Extreme Heat to Persist in India for 3rd Straight Month 0422 - March was record hot, April was 2nd hottest on record.
Record Heat Has Gripped India since March. It’s About to Get Worse. 0422
Record-Setting Cold Snap Hits Europe April 3-4, Stunning Spring Crops 0422
India’s Frequent Heat Waves a Reminder of Climate Change Impacts 0322
Middle East on Course for Huge Climate Change Losses - IMF 0322
40°C above Normal - What’s Causing Extraordinary Heating in Polar Regions? 0322
It’s 70°F above Normal in Vostok, East Antarctica. Scientists Are Flabbergasted 0322
South America Sizzles in Record Summer Temperatures 0122
Australia Hits 123°F, Tying Southern Hemisphere’s Hottest Temperature Record 0122
Arctic Temperature Soared to an Unprecedented 100°F in 2020, Scientists Confirm 1221
South Pole Posts Its Severest Cold Season on Record 1021
Climate Change Pushes New Zealand to Warmest Winter on Record 0921
Ireland Getting Warmer and Wetter 0821
Italy Registers Europe's Hottest day on Record as Anticyclone 'Lucifer' Sweeps In 0821
Chinese City, Zhengzhou, Hit by Deadly Floods Had Heat Waves Days Before 0721
Hotter and Drier - Deforestation and Wildfires Take a Toll on the Amazon 0721
China’s Heat Wave Is Pushing Coal Prices Toward Record Level 0721
North America Endured Hottest June on Record 0721 - #7 globally
Lapland Just Recorded Its Hottest Temperature in 100 Years 0721
New Zealand Experiences Hottest June on Record, despite Polar Blast 0721
Extreme Heat Shattered B.C. Temperature Records in June 0721
Lytton, B.C., Village at Center of Canada’s Heat Wave, Devastated by Wildfires 0721
‘Hard to Comprehend’ - Experts React to Record 121°F in Canada 0621
N.W.T., Yukon Break Summer Temperature Records as Heat Dome Lingers 0621
Temperature of 121°F Sets Canada’s New National Record High 0721 - shatters pre-2021 record by 8°F. Local records across British Columbia were also shattered, by up to 12°F (Cache Creek), and 3-4 others by more than 10°F. 121°F is hotter than has ever been recorded in Las Vegas, Dallas or San Antonio. It tied Death Valley that day for the hottest temperature in North Anerica.
At 116°, Heat in Western Canada Shatters National Record 0621 - Lytton B.C. Also record highs in Kamloops, Cache Creek, Lilloet, Kelowna, Victoria, Vancouver, Penticton, Vernon, Nelson, etc. Most by several degrees.
Heat Records Crumble in Europe and Russia, amid Scorching Heat Wave 0621
Record-Breaking Temperatures Recorded in Arctic Russia 0621
Record Heat Bakes Middle East as Temperatures Top 125°F 0621
Record Heat Scorches Western Russia, Central Canada, Ringing Climate Alarm 0521
Europe Smashes Monthly Temperature Records beneath Sprawling Heat Dome 0421
This Russian Arctic Coast Has Planet's Quickest Warming 0321
Australia's Record Spring Heat Is 1-in-500,000 without Climate Change 1220
Warning Bells Jingle for December Climate 1220
Sydney Records Hottest November Night on Record 1120
Temperatures in the Arctic Are Astonishingly Warmer than They Should Be 1120
Wildfires Tear through Drought-Racked Paraguay amid Record Heat 1020
Baghdad’s Record Heat Offers Glimpse of World’s Climate Change Future 0820
Drier than the Sahara - Heat Wave Fans Fire Risk for French Farmers 0820
Baghdad Soars to Blistering 125°F, Its Hottest Temperature on Record 0720
Record Heat Hits Svalbard’s Longyearbyen 0720
Siberia’s Heat Wave Triggered an Arctic Sea Ice Melt 0720
Rapid Arctic Meltdown in Siberia Alarms Scientists 0720
South Pole Warmed 3 x the Global Rate over the Past 30 Years 0620
Why the Arctic Is Warming So Fast, and Why That’s So Alarming 0620
Verkoyansk, Record Cold Siberian Town (-90°F in 1892) Hits +100°F 0620
Alarm at Record-Breaking Heat Wave in Siberia 0620
Winter 2019-20 Was by Far the Warmest Ever Recorded in Europe 0620
Parts of Siberia Are Hotter than Washington - Nearly 40° above Average 0520
Arctic Heat Wave Is Reigniting Siberian Tinderbox 0520
Red Alert for Northern Siberia as Heat Shocks Threaten Life on Tundra 0520
Because of Rising CO2, Trees Might Be Warming the Arctic 0520
Global Surface Air Temperature for March 2020 - 0420
Antarctica Experiences 1st Known Heat Wave 0320
Moscow Crushes Record for Warmest Winter, as Europe and North America Set Milestones 0320
Australian Summers Now a Month Longer - 'Twice as Long as Winters’ 0320
A Heat Wave in Antarctica Melted 20% of an Island's Snow in 9 Days 0220
Antarctic Temperature Soars to 70°F, Toppling the Record Set 5 Days Earlier 0220
Antarctica Logs Hottest Temperature on Record, at 18.3°C [65°F] 0220
Europe Just Posted Its Warmest January on Record 0220
Refrigeration Chemicals Helped Drive Arctic Warming 0120
Norway Records Warmest Ever January Day at 19°C 0120
Norwegian Tromsø’s Winter Nowadays Is 17 Days Shorter than 30 Years Ago 0120
U.K. Endures Record High Temperatures during 2010s - 0120
Moscow Resorts to Fake Snow in Warmest December since at Least 1886 - 1219
Tasmania Gets Hotter than Australia's Tropical North 1219
Winter Has Mysteriously Skipped Moscow in December 1219
Australia’s Hottest Day, Its 2nd Straight, Brings ‘Catastrophic’ Fire Conditions 1219
Australia Suffers Hottest Day on Record & Worst Ever Spring Bushfire Danger 1219
More than 206 Australian Heat Records Broken in Just 90 Days This Year 1219
After the Warmest Ever Arctic Summer Could Come the Mildest Winter 1119
Arctic Islands 8° Warmer than Normal 1119
Record 2019 Heat Wave Linked to Climate Change Killed 1,500 People in France 0919
Why the Arctic Is Smoldering 0819
Paris, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Edinburgh Shatter All-Time Heat Records 0719
Europe Suffers Heat Wave of Dangerous, Record-High Temperatures 0719
Europe Heat Wave - French City of Bordeaux Hits Record Temperature 0719
Arctic Summer 2019 - Record Heat, Dramatic Ice Loss, Raging Wildfires 0719
'This Is Unprecedented' - Alert, Nunavut, Is Warmer than Victoria B.C. 0719
A Heat Wave Tests Europe’s Defenses. Expect More. 0719
Welcome to the Fastest-Heating Place on Earth 0719
France Records All-Time Highest Temperature of 45.9°C (115°F) 0619
Mercury Climbs as Europe Braces for Summer Scorcher 0619
It’s 40° above Normal with Record June Melting in Arctic Ocean and Greenland 0619
As Cambodia Swelters, Climate-Change Suspicion Falls on Deforestation 0619
India Roasts under Heat Wave with Temperatures above 120° - 0619
Arctic Russia Hit 87° on May 11, as CO2 Was Highest in Human History 0519
Arctic Is Warmest It's Been in at Least 10,000 Years 0419
The Arctic ‘Locked-in’ for 3 to 5°C Temperature Rise, UN Report Warns 0319
Record Australian Heat Brings Fire to a Scorched Land 0319
January Was Officially Australia’s Hottest Month on Record 0219
It’s So Hot in Australia that Snakes Are Seeking Refuge in People’s Toilets 0119
Adelaide’s 46.6°C Breaks Its All-Time Heat Record, in Great Australia Heat Wave 0119
Warning Issued to Stay indoors as Australia's Heat Wave Hits Record Highs 0119
As Heat Sweeps over the Arctic, Moscow Seeks Way to Adapt 0119
Himalayas in Upper Reaches Are Warmer than Previously Thought 0119
Australia Heat Wave to Break Christmas Weather Records; Up to 47°C Forecast 1218
Arctic's 2nd-Warmest Year Leaves Wildlife, Communities Under Pressure 1218
This Place on Russia’s Arctic Coast Has Most Dramatic Climate Change 1018
Kiruna in Lapland Is Europe’s Fastest-Warming Place 0918
China Logs Hottest National Average Summer Temperature in 57 Years 0818
How Delhi's Rising Heat and a Love of Concrete Caused a Deadly Water Crisis 0818
Red Cross Warns of Food Crisis in North Korea, as Crops Fail in Heat 0818
Sydney's Bushfire Season Now Starts in Winter 0818
In Hot Water - How Summer Heat Has Hit Nordic Nuclear Plants 0818
'Unprecedented' Japan Heat Wave Kills 65 People in a Week 0718
Japanese Heat Wave Pushes Temperature to Record 0718
The Global Heat Wave Is about to Hit Your Wallet 0718
May and April 2018 Were the Hottest in Germany since Records Began in 1881 - 0618
Pakistan’s ‘Shocking' Spring Heat Drives Up Water Use, Health Risks 0518
A Pakistan City May Have Suffered the Hottest April Day Ever Observed on Earth 0518
Pakistan’s 114°F Is Just One of Many All-Time March Records Toppled in Asia 0418
Unusually High Temperatures In Arctic Rise In Frequency 0318
It Was Officially New Zealand's Hottest Summer on Record 0318
It Will Be Warmer at the North Pole Next Week than Much of Europe 0218
North Pole Surges above Freezing in the Dead of Winter, Stunning Scientists 0218
Arctic Soars 45°F above Normal, Flooded by Very Mild Air on All Sides 0218
Insurers Say Canadian Weather Getting Hotter, Wetter and Weirder 0118
Heat Wave Is Melting Asphalt in Southern Australia as Eastern US Freezes 0118
Abnormal Cold in the United States Doesn’t Disprove Global Warming 1217 - record heat in Europe, north Asia
Warming of the Arctic Is Unprecedented over the Last 1,500 Years 1217
Arctic Data Shows No Pause in Global Warming 1117
India Battles to Balance the Economy and the Environment 1117 - up to 48°C heat; much else about solutions
Sumatran Region Heats Up as Forests Disappear 1017
Europe's Hot, Fiery Summer Linked to Global Warming 0917
Arctic Voyage Finds Global Warming Impact on Ice, Animals 0817
Europe Heat Wave Sparks Health Warnings, as Temperatures Soar 0817
Earth’s Most-Populated City, Shanghai, Just Recorded Its Hottest Day Ever 0717
Heat and Drought Feed Wildfires in Italy, Threaten Beaches near Rome 0717
Swathes of South China under Water, Heat Strikes North 0717
Global Warming Tipped Scales in Europe’s Heat Wave 0617
Scientists Rescue Samples of Melting Bolivian Glacier for Posterity 0617
London Mayor Issues Emergency Air Quality Alert, amid Heat Wave 0617
India's Rising Temperatures Are Already Deadly 0617 approaching Death Valley levels - in May
The Arctic Is Warm Again Because Of Course It Is 0317 - 2017 Arctic temperatures to average 5-7°F above normal.
Global Warming Made Australia's Record Sizzling Summer 50 x More Likely 0317
Can Australia's Wicked Heat Wave Convince Climate Change Deniers? 0217 - Sydney suburbs hit 117°F.
Heat Waves Scorch the Arctic, Australia, Parts of U.S. 0217
It’s About 50°F Warmer than Normal near the North Pole, Yet Again 0217
Winter of Blazing Discontent Continues in the Arctic 0217
January Was Hottest Month on Record in Sydney and Brisbane 0117
Intense Heat Grips Eastern Australia 0117
Tibetan Tree Rings Trace Climate Change to 1870s - 0117
How Reindeer and Caribou Help Cool the Arctic 0117
Sydney Air Pollution Alert Issued, as Temperature Heads to 38°C - 0117
Record-Breaking Extreme Weather in Australia in 2016 Devastates Ecosystems 0117
Arctic Heat Wave Could Break Records 1216
North Pole to Warm to Near Melting Point This Week, 50°F above Normal 1216
The Arctic Just Had Its Hottest Year on Record, ‘by Far’ 1216
'The Arctic Is Unraveling,' Conclude Scientists after Latest Climate Report 1216
Amid Higher Global Temperatures, Sea Ice at Record Lows at Both Poles 1116
The North Pole Is an Insane 36°F Warmer than Normal, as Winter Descends 1116
Australia Has More Extreme Fire Weather, Hotter Days, as Climate Changes 1016
Indian Salt Producers Cope with 48°C Heat 0916
The Blob - How Marine Heat Waves Are Causing Unprecedented Climate Chaos 0816
Epic Middle East Heat Wave Could Be Global Warming’s Hellish Curtain-Raiser 0816
Kuwait Fries at 54°C (129.2°F), Record Hot for Eastern Hemisphere 0716
Tip of Antarctic Peninsula’s Temperatures Fell over Last 15 Years 0716
Deep-Blue Ponds and Streams Highlight Melting on Greenland Ice Sheet 0716
Radical Arctic Melt - ‘Extraordinary Years Have Become the Normal Years’ 0716
Amid Melting Arctic ice, Kerry Sees Looming Climate Catastrophe 0616 - 77°F in Greenland’s capital last week
Greenland Was Hotter than New York City Last Week 0616
India Hits Record 123.8°F - 0516
Unusual Heat Bakes Sri Lanka's Chicken Industry 0516
Climate Change Leaves Kashmir’s Economy High and Dry 0516
Global Warming Cited as Wildfires Increase in Fragile Boreal Forest 0516
'Perfect Storm' of El Niño and Warming Boosted Alberta Fires 0516 - Western Canada temperatures up to 20°C > normal.
Fort McMurray Wildfire Forces 1/4 of Canada’s Oil Output Off-Line 0516
Deadly Heat Wave Is Shattering All-Time Records in Southeast Asia and India 0416
Heat Wave in Greenland Triggers Record Early Start to Ice Melt Season 0416
Australia’s Record Temperatures for March a Warning of What's to Come 0316
Record-Breaking Temperatures ‘Have Robbed the Arctic of Its Winter' 0316
Melbourne Records Its Hottest March Night since Records Began 0316
The Arctic Just Set an Ominous New Record 0316
Scientists Are Floored by What’s Happening in the Arctic Right Now 0216
Fossil Fuel Emissions behind Australia's Record-Breaking Spring Heat 0216
Yukon to Feel Impacts of Climate Change 0216
Old Man Winter Missing in Action 0216 - Alberta
Europe's Shift to Dark Green Forests Stokes Global Warming 0216
Europe's Recent Summers Were the 'Warmest in at Least 2,000 Years' 0116
Why the Sahel Rains Failed – and Why They May Return 0116
December 2015 Was the Wettest Month Ever Recorded in UK 0116 - also hottest. Full year was 2nd hottest, 6th wettest.
Record Hot End to 2015 for Australia, as Giant El Niño Dominates 0116
Balmy Winter Hits French Ski Workers in Wallet 1215
Fire, Floods, Tornadoes - Fatal Weather Rounds out a Year of Extremes in 2015
In Canada's Far North, Warm Weather Threatens Vital Ice Roads 1215 - MacKenzie River Basin warmed 4.5°C in 68 years.
Record High Arctic Temperatures in 2015 Having ‘Profound Effects' on Region 1215
Laos Counts Climate Change Costs - Record Floods, Drought and Landslides 1115
October to Be Australia’s Hottest on Record. Global Warming Likely to Blame. 1015
Bushfire Burns Out of Control, as Victoria Swelters in Record Early Spring Heat 1015
Australian Climate Turns Up Heat on Tennis Stars 0915
Europe Is Parched, in a Sign of Times to Come 0915
Mongolia in for Double Whammy - Drought Now, Freeze-Kill Next 0915 - Over 70 years, Mongolia heated 3 x average rate.
Heat Waves Are on the Rise in Algeria, Due to Climate Change 0815
Saharan Heat Amped Up by Climate Change 0815 - Like the Arctic, it’s warming twice as fast as the globe.
Iran City Hits Suffocating Heat Index of 165°F, near World Record 0715
Freak High Temperatures Trigger Ice Melt, Flooding, Mudslides in Tajikistan 0715
Temperatures Soar as Heat Wave Sweeps across Europe 0715
Britain, Western Europe Endure Record Heat Wave 0715
CO2 Blamed for 'Climate Expulsion,’ Raising Temperatures across Pacific Nations 0615
Heat Wave in Pakistan's Sindh Province Leaves 120 Dead 0615
The Deadly Combination of Heat and Humidity 0615
The Climate Context for India’s Deadly Heat Wave 0615
The Heat and Death Toll Are Rising in India. Is This a Glimpse of Earth’s Future? 0515
India Heat Wave Toll Passes 1,000 - 0515
Going with the Flow - Scientists Probe Changes in the East Australian Current 0515
Huge Blob of Warm Pacific Water Threatens US West Coast Ecosystems, May Intensify Drought 0415
The excess heat in the blob off California (1,000 miles across and 100 yards deep, 5.5°C warmer than normal) contains as much excess heat energy as the US uses for 50 years. Its heat dwarfs human energy use.
The 2 similar blobs farther north can be associated with record warmth in Alaska (and east Siberia). Their excess heat ALSO exceeds yearly human energy use.
Surprising Reason Why Arctic Warming Could Be Worse than We Thought 0415
Antarctica Peninsula Warmer Than Melbourne, Australia 0315
As Ice Turns to Slush, Experts Foresee End to Outdoor Hockey in Canada 0315
Tibet's Glaciers at Their Warmest in 2,000 Years 0814
Land of the Midnight Sun Warms Fastest in World 0115
Fast Finland Warming Means Blue Christmas for Santa 1214
Arctic Still Heating Up Twice as Fast as Rest of Planet 1214
Europe’s Record Heat Directly Tied to Climate Change 1214
Australia Sweats over Extreme Hot Weather 1114
Brisbane Turns on the Heat for G20 Summit, as Monthly Records Melt 1114
1st ‘Big Heat Event' Melts Australian Temperature Records 1014
UK Winter Wettest on Record - Met Office 0214
Heat Wave Halts Australian Open Tennis Matches 0114
In Australia, 2013 Was a Scorcher for the Record Books 0114
Australia Records Its Warmest Spring 1213
Australia to Face Stronger El Niño Weather Patterns from Global Warming 1113
Arctic Warming Unprecedented in Last 44,000 Years 1013
Absolutely a Link Between Climate Change and Australian Wildfires 1013
China Tries Hi-Tech Rain Dance as It Roasts in Heat Wave 0813
China's Soaring Temperatures Prompts Grade 2 Alert 0713
Human Activity Linked to Hottest Australian Summer on Record 0613
Korea Energy Effort Hit by Heat Wave 0613
Pakistan Wilts Under Record Heat Wave 0613
China’s Rising Temperatures Linked to Carbon Emissions 0413
Top Scientists Agree Australia’s Climate Has Changed Permanently 0413
Australian Summer Is its Hottest On Record 0313
Australia Warmest in 1,000+ Years 0512
Melting Arctic Link to Cold Europe Winters 0212
Pakistan Reels Under Record Heat of 129°F in Mohenjo-Daro 0610
Arctic Warmest in 2,000+ Years 0909
GO TO .Top. .US. .Elsewhere. .World. .Patterns. .Paleo. .Future. .Clouds. .Sulfates. .Sensitivity.
Heating - Now - Oceans
Just as warm air rises, so does warm water. Warm water is at the top already. This inhibits water's vertical mixing. But saltier water, being denser, sinks. This promotes vertical mixing. So can winds. The balance among them is an empirical matter. From 1961 to 1993, the atmosphere warmed ~50 times as fast as the ocean. From 1993 to 2004, it warmed only 25 times as fast. (See the bar graph, 2nd below. Oceans weigh more than 250 times as much as the atmosphere. Moreover, water has ~4 x the heat capacity of air, gram for gram.) So oceans hold 1,000 times as much heat as air.
Warming in the air at the land surface is terribly sensitive to what % of Earth's net heat absorbed goes into the ocean. Thru 2018 (see graph below),
Above, also on Overviews page and near top of this Heat page: 1961-2003 is in blue, 1993-2003 in magenta. More than half the 42-year change was in the final 10 years. The graph at right (also near top of page), repeats and updates the bar graph at left. ZJ = 10^21 Joules, which is ~ 10 years of US energy use.
The Mediterranean Sea Was Also Bizarrely Warm This Summer 1023
Why Our Oceans Being the Warmest in Recorded History Is So Concerning 0823 - Marine life struggles with heat, its resulting oxygen loss, and acidification. Coral is especially hard hit. It also, via the warming-melting effects on Greenland and Antarctic ice, slows down Atlantic Ocean circulation, especially the AMOC and Gulf Stream. They may collapse by mid-century, slowly and possibly as soon as 2025. The warming also melts sea ice, a major feedback that further accelerates global warming.
Global Ocean Temperatures Soared to a Record High This Week 0823
Where Ocean Temperatures Are off the Charts 0723
Miami’s Atlantic Ocean Surface Temperatures Hit 90°, Fueling Weather Disasters 0723
Deep-Sea Researchers Probe Mystery of Record Ocean Heat 0723
Florida Ocean Records ‘Unprecedented’ Temperatures, Similar to a Hot Tub 0723
Record Hot Oceans Are Driving Weather Disasters around the World 0723
How Hot Is the Sea Off Florida Right Now? Think 90s Fahrenheit. 0723 - 98°F just off the southwest coast of the Everglades, per July 15 report
Ocean Heat around Florida is Unprecedented. Coral Bleaching Abounds. 0723
Florida Ocean Temperatures at ‘Downright Shocking’ Levels 0723
The Oceans Are Unusually Hot and on Track to Get Hotter. That's Not Good. 0723
Record Temperatures in Warming Oceans Causes Chaotic Weather Patterns 0723
‘Beyond Extreme’ North Atlantic Heat Wave Is Worst on Record, since 1850 - 0623
As North Atlantic Sizzles, the Pacific Is Now Heating up Too, Thanks to El Niño 0623
‘Unheard of’ Marine Heat Wave off UK and Irish Coasts Poses Serious Threat 0623
The World’s Oceans Shattered Heat Records in April and May 0623
North Atlantic Temperature Anomaly Sparks Concern among Climate Scientists 0623
Earth Keeps Breaking Records for Warming Waters 0423
Recent, Rapid Ocean Warming Ahead of El Niño Alarms Scientists 0423
Marine Heat Waves Can Happen Even at the Bottom of the Ocean 0323
Earth’s Oceans Are Showing Early and Surprising Record Warming 0323
Marine Heat Waves Are Sweeping the Seafloor around North America 0323
Arctic Climate Modeling Too Conservative, Says New Research 0323
Gulf of Maine Has 2nd-Hottest Year, after 2021, Getting to ‘Edge of Habitability’ 0223
Oceans Were the Hottest Ever Recorded in 2022 - 0123
Oceans Are Warming Faster than Ever. Here’s What Could Come Next. 1022
Ocean Warming Rates to Quadruple by 2090 if Climate Change Not Mitigated 1022
The Mediterranean Sea Is So Hot, It’s Forming Carbonate Crystals 1022
Marine Heat Waves Are on the Rise. What Are These Blobs of Hot Water? 0922
Extreme Heat in Europe Led to “Brutal” Rise in Sea Temperatures 0622
Lower-Level Ozone Is Responsible for Warming the Antarctic Ocean 0422
Our Oceans Are Hotter than Ever, so Scientists Worry for Our Future 0222
Extreme Heat in Oceans ‘Passed Point of No Return’ in 2014 - 0222 - Extreme temperatures - occurring just 2% of the time a century ago - have occurred at least 50% of the time across the global ocean since 2014. 90% in hotspots.
Hottest Ocean Temperatures in History Recorded Last Year, for 6th Year in a Row 0122 
Extreme Marine Heat Wave off Sydney Set to Break January Temperature Records 0122
Tropical Climate Change Is a Puzzle—Could Aerosols Be a Piece? 0921
Average Arctic Ocean’s February Temperatures Warmer than Past 2 Decades 0321
Southern Ocean Is Warming Faster than Thought, Threatening Antarctic Ice 0121
Ocean Temperatures Reached Record High in 2020 - 0121
Temperature Analysis Shows UN Goals 'within Reach' 1120
As Waters Warm, Ocean Heat Waves Are Growing More Severe 1020
Ocean Heat Waves Are Directly Linked to Climate Change 0920
Earthquake ‘Hack' Reveals Scale of Ocean Warming 0920
How Can We Minimize Harm from More Common & Intense Marine Heat Waves? 0820
Hot East Coast Waters Draw In Weird Fish, Supercharge Hurricane Season 0720
Deep Ocean Will Be Warming Rapidly by 2050, Even if Global Emissions Decline 0520
How the Blob Is Warming British Columbia’s Fjords 0520
Warmest Oceans on Record Adds to Hurricanes, Wildfires Risks 0420
Abnormally Warm Gulf of Mexico Could Intensify Tornado and Hurricane Seasons 0320
2019 Was Another Record Year for Ocean Temperatures, Data Show 0120 - 2019, then 2018, 2017, 2015, 2016. 2016 featured less heat in ocean, more in air.
There's a Texas-Size Area of Hot Sea Water off the Coast of New Zealand 1219
Return of the 'Blob' - Hawaii's Reefs Threatened by Marine Heat Wave 1019
Marine Heat Wave Hits Pacific, Raising Fears of a New Hot 'Blob' 0919
The Water Is So Hot in Alaska, It's Killing Large Numbers of Salmon 0819
Surprise! Unexpected Ocean Heat Waves Are Becoming the Norm 0819
Arctic Melt - Threat to Plankton beneath the Ice 0619
Ocean Heat Sets A New Sky High Record - UN 0319
Heat Waves Sweeping Oceans ‘like Wildfires’ 0319
2018 Was the Ocean's Hottest Year. We'll Feel It a Long Time. 0119
An Ocean of Evidence on Warming Is Our Cue to Take Action - Now 0119
World's Oceans Are Warming Faster, Studies Show, Fueling Storms and Sea Rise 0119
New Findings on Ocean Warming - 5 Questions Answered 1118
Large Buildup of Heat in the Oceans Suggests a Faster Rate of Global Warming 1018
2 Human Sources Are Causing Antarctica’s Ocean to Heat Up 0918
Warm Water under Arctic Ice Is a ‘Ticking Time Bomb’ 0818
Climate Change Has Doubled the Frequency of Ocean Heat Waves 0818
Could Record-Warm Seawater Temps Mean Typhoons off the California Coast? 0818
Northern Barents Sea Warms Dramatically 0718 - hard to sustain sea ice near Spitsbergen
‘Concerning' - Marine Heat Waves Increasing, Especially near Australia 0418
2017 Was the Hottest Year Yet In the World's Ocean 0118
Arctic Sea Change 1017 - Warm Atlantic waters flow north past Spitsbergen into Arctic Ocean - along the bottom. With shrinking Arctic sea ice, Arctic storms churn more warm bottom water to the top.
Oceans Give the Most Powerful Evidence Climate of Global Warming 1017
It Takes Just 4 Years to Detect Human Warming of the Oceans 0917
Oceans Are Warming Rapidly, New Study Confirms 0617
Earth's Oceans Are Warming 13% Faster than Thought, and Accelerating 0317
This Is How You Create a Record-Breaking Hurricane 1016
The Blob - How Marine Heat Waves Are Causing Unprecedented Climate Chaos 0816
In Warming Oceans, Stronger Currents Releasing Heat in Bigger Storms 0716
The Biggest Body of Warm Water on Earth Is Getting Even Bigger 0716
Do Pacific Waters Give Early Warning of East Coast Heat Waves? 0316
Scientists Are Floored by What’s Happening in the Arctic Right Now 0216
Unusually Warm Arctic Winter Yields Record Low Ice Extent for January 0216
Ocean Warming is Making Floods Worse 0116
Warmer Indian Ocean Could Be 'Ecological Desert', Scientists Warn 0116
The Oceans Are Heating Up Faster than We Thought. Why That Matters. 0116
Pacific Ocean Becomes a Cauldron 1115
Collapse of New England’s Iconic Cod Tied to Climate Change 1015
Warming Oceans May Threaten Krill, Cornerstone of the Antarctic Ecosystem 1015
Heat Rising from the Depths of the Arctic ‘Could Accelerate Ice Melt' 0915
A Warmer North Pacific Is Staying Warmer, With Dramatic Impact on Marine Life 0915
Global Warming Is Reversing 1,800 Years of Natural Ocean Cooling 0815
Surprising Reason for Faster Arctic Meltdown 0715
Warming Indian Ocean Weakens India’s Monsoon 0615
Heat is Piling Up in the Depths of the Indian Ocean 0515
Going with the Flow - Scientists Probe Changes in the East Australian Current 0515
Huge Blob of Warm Pacific Water Threatens US West Coast Ecosystems, May Intensify Drought 0415
Surprising Reason Why Arctic Warming Could Be Worse than We Thought 0415
Pacific Winds Tied to Warming Slowdown, Dry West 0415
More Global Warming Hiding in the Oceans? 0513
Why Earth’s Surface Warming Slowed Recently - Heat Went to Deep Ocean 0313
US West Coast Is in Hot Water 0315
The Gulf Stream System May Already Be Weakening. That's Not Good. 0315
Fresh Look at Ocean Side of Climate Shows ‘Unabated Planetary Warming’ 0215
Ocean Warming Understimated - 3 Perspectives 1014
Deep Oceans May Be Storing Heat 1113
More Global Warming Hiding in the Oceans? 0513
Why Earth’s Surface Warming Slowed Recently - Heat Went to Deep Ocean 0313
Levitus et al. Find Global Warming Continues to Heat the Oceans 0412
Deep Oceans Are Masking Surface Warming 0911
Multi-Decade Oscillation Goes Cool 0110
World Oceans Hottest On Record 0809
World Ocean Temperature Record 0709
Warming Oceans - Levitus 0105 - PDF
Below, from IPCC (2013) Executive Summary
GO TO .Top. .US. .Oceans. .Elsewhere. .World. .Paleo. .Future. .Clouds. .Sulfates. .Sensitivity.
Heating - Now - Patterns on Earth
How a Heat Dome Can Push Temperatures to Dangerous Highs 0623
How Pesticides Intensify Global Warming 0123 - For starters, pesticides are very energy (emissino) intensive to make.
The Surprising Reasons Parts of Earth Are Warming More Slowly 1222 - The ozone hole is a factor in rapid polar warming. Melting ice sheets off into the nearby ocean and industrial pollution screening out sunligjt ar3e otehr important factors.
Hotter Summer Nights Affect Everything from Death Rates to Crop Yields to Firefighting 0822
Climate Change Driving Multiple Extreme Weather Events Happening at Once 0622
How the Moon Influences Temperatures on Earth 0522 - 18.6-year cycle of moon’s orbital plane around Earth. Effect is ±0.04°C.
Enter Winter, the Fastest-Warming Season 1221
Why We’re Experiencing So Many Unusually Hot Summer Nights 0921
Rising Tropopause to Dampen Cooling Effects of Moderate Volcanic Eruptions 0821
Summer Swelter Trend - West Gets Hotter Days, East Hot Nights 0721
That Heat Dome? Yeah, It’s Climate Change. 0621
‘Heat Dome’ Explained - Why Pacific Northwest Faces Record Heat 0621
What Do More & Earlier 90° Days, Rising Health Toll, Say about Climate Change? 0621
Earth Warmed as Virus Reduced CO2 and Sulfur Emissions 0221
Climate Change Is Turning the Heat Up Higher at Night 1020
Heat Waves Have Become Longer in Most of the World since 1950s 0720
Why Some Spots on Earth Are Heating Up Faster than Others 0520
Dangerous New Hot Zones Are Spreading around the World 0919 - 5 to 11% of the globe has alrady warmed by 2°C
As the Climate Warms, Cool Summer Evenings Are Becoming a Distant Memory 0819
Rising Humidity Makes Even Modest Heat Waves Unbearable as Climate Changes 0819
Slowing Gulf Stream Current to Boost Warming for 20 Years 0718 - perspective #1
Climate Change Is Beginning to Shift Planet’s Seasons 0718 - perspective #2
Why Cities Are Warmer than the Countryside, and Why That Should Concern Us 0718
2016 Extreme Arctic Heat Wave Wouldn't Have Occurred without Climate Change 0518
Human Emissions Made Ocean Heat Wave 53 Times More Likely 0118
How Climate Change Is Driving Extreme Heat Waves 0118
Global Warming Is Making It Harder to Get Truly Frigid Weather 0118
Abnormal Cold in the United States Doesn’t Disprove Global Warming 1217 - record heat in Europe, north Asia
La Niña Is Officially Here to Shape U.S. Winter Weather, and Global Climate 1117
It’s Like It Never Left - Another El Niño May Be on the Way 0417
U.S. Forecaster Sees Increasing Chances of El Niño Later in 2017 - 0317
Global Warming Made Australia's Record Sizzling Summer 50 x More Likely 0317
Tibetan Tree Rings Trace Climate Change to 1870s - 0117
Before 1870, day-night temperature difference was widening. Since then, the reverse.
This Is How You Create a Record-Breaking Hurricane 1016
Why It’s Hotter Nights, More Than Hotter Days, That Make Heat Waves Dangerous 0816
Global Warming Could Deplete the Oceans’ Oxygen, with Severe Consequences 0416
Do Pacific Waters Give Early Warning of East Coast Heat Waves? 0316
The Mystery of the Expanding Tropics 0216 - Why are they AND sub-tropics spreading far faster than models predict?
Why the Sahel Rains Failed – and Why They May Return 0116
Globally, Lakes Warming at an Alarming Rate 1215
Concerns Deepen about a Climate-Change ‘Wild Card’ 0915
Global Warming Is Reversing 1,800 Years of Natural Ocean Cooling 0815
Warming Indian Ocean Weakens India’s Monsoon 0615
“Hot Spot” Confirms Tropic Troposphere Warms Faster Earth’s Tropic Surface 0515
'Substantial' El Niño Event Predicted 0515
El Niño Strengthens. Hope for Serious Drought Relief? 0515
75% of Heat Waves Are Attributable to Climate Change 0415
Changes in Water Vapor and Clouds Are Amplifying Global Warming 0415
Pacific Winds Tied to Warming Slowdown, Dry West 0415
Scientists Pore Over Warm West, Cold East Divide in US 0415
Welcome to the 'Double El Niño' — and More Extreme Weather 0315
Oceans May Be Lulling Us into a False Sense of Climate Security 0315
50-70 Year Ocean Oscillations Can Explain Global Warming ‘Hiatus' 0215
Concern about Extremes, as Planet Gets Hotter and Colder 1214
Stronger Pacific Trade Winds Linked to Stable Air Temperatures 0214
Deep Oceans May Be Storing Heat 1113
‘Missing Heat’ Discovery Prompts New Estimate of Global Warming 1113
At left is a diagram of a typical urban heat island effect, for Portland, Oregon, on a hot summer afternoon.
Global Warming Pause Central to IPCC Climate Report 0913
IPCC Cites Global Temperature Rise over Last Century 0913
Climate Change Experts Pressed to Address Slowdown in Global Warming 0913
Human Fingerprints Visible in Atmospheric Changes 0913
Climate Extremes Are Unprecedented 0713
El Niño Unusually Active in Late 20th Century 0613
Slower Air Warming Doesn't Mean Climate Change Has Paused 0513
Oceans May Explain Slowdown in Climate Change 0413
Climate Change Causes Extreme Weather 0812
Loaded Temps Dice since 1980 - Hansen 0812 - PDF
Warming Confirmed after Climategate 1011
Global Warming Not Happening as Fast as Models Suggested 0711
Warming Troposphere Disproves Skeptics 1110
Warming Continues & Accelerates 0710
Earth's Detailed Energy Budget Changes - Trenberth 1009 - PDF
Earth & Oceans Heat Up 0.85 W/sq m 0505
440M MW Heat Gain, 0.6°C in Pipeline - Hansen 0404 - PDF
Heating - Now - Misc.
NOAA Temperature Adjustments Bring Data Closer to Pristine 0216
Skeptic Confirms Global Warming 0712
2010 CO2 Emissions Exceed Worst Case 1111
WMO - GHGs Keep Growing Faster 1109
GO TO .Top. .US. .Oceans. .Elsewhere. .World. .Patterns. .Future. .Clouds. .Sulfates. .Sensitivity.
Heating - Paleo
For 9-13 graphs of historical warming, with ever finer time resolution, see top of this webpage.
Below is Dr. Fry’s analysis, based most of all on the Vostok ice cores over the past 430,000 years. And on other researchers’ findings on conditions some 4 and 14 million years ago. See above, but below notably Tripati 1209, Csank 0311, Pagani 1209, and Shevenell 0208.
The Last Time Earth Was This Hot, Woolly Mammoths Roamed the Earth 0723
Climate Inferno Threatens to Turn Athens Into Outpost of Sahara 0723
Long-Lost Greenland Ice Core Suggests Potential Disastrous Sea Level Rise 0723 - Much of Greenland was ice-free around 416,000 years ago. Thus, Greenland has not been frozen for a million years. As the scientists started to sieve it to separate out the sediment, they were surprised to see twigs, mosses, leaves and seeds. “We have a fossilized frozen ecosystem here,” said Bierman, “And what that meant, of course, is the ice sheet had gone away, because you can’t grow plants under a mile of ice.” The potential implications for sea level rise are enormous, said a co-author, probably 10s of meters.
‘We are damned fools’ - Scientist Who Sounded Climate Alarm in 1980s Warns of Worse to Come 0723 - Prof., James Hansen and others interviewed. The world is moving towards a “new climate frontier”, with temperatures higher than at any point over the past million years.... This is due to what Hansen said was an “unprecedented” imbalance in the amount of energy coming into the planet from the sun, versus the energy reflected away from Earth.... As heat waves strafe populations unused to extreme temperatures, forests burn, and marine life struggles to cope with soaring ocean heat, the current upward spike is occurring at a pace not seen since the extinction of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago.... It's the rate of change that's the issue.
We have been staring this in the face as scientists for decades, but now the world is going through that same process, which is like the 5 stages of grief, another scientist said. “It’s painful to watch people go through it. “But we can’t simply give up because the situation is dire,” Huber added. “We need to say ‘Here is where we need to invest and make changes and innovate’ and not give up. We can’t just write off billions of people.”
Ancient DNA Shows What Greenland May Have Looked Like 2 Million Years Ago 1222
Report of an Ancient Methane Release Raises Questions for Our Climate Future 0822
What Lessons Can We Learn from the Last Great Cooling-off Period? 0522 - The story involves volcanoes, the oceans, variation in the sun’s output, and depopulation in the America’s from germs brought by Columbus and his successors.
The Last Time the World Was Warm 1121
Global Warming 55 Million Years Ago Could Hint at Our Scorching Future 0821 - Methane hydrates from the ocean floor unleashed average global surface tremperatues 11°C hotter than today.. Consequences included hungrier insects, oceanic extinctions, rapid evolution, shrinking mammals, and strange new rains (water vapor transport from equator to poles) and danger zones, as ocean oxygen levels plummeted.
Earth Is Warmer than It’s Been in 125,000 Years 0821
The Alarming Power of Melting Arctic Ice 0621 - At least 25 Times in the past 120,000 years, Dansgaard-Oeschger events warmed Greenland more than 10°C in just a afew decades. Widespread and rapid melting of ice in the Greenland, Norwegian, and Iceland Seas seem to have preceeded these rapid meltings. This sea ice melting allowed warm Atlantic water to penetrate northward, triggering or amplifying the warming air around Greenland.
Study Finds 6°C Cooling on Land during the last Ice Age 0521
World Is Hottest in at Least 12,000 Years 0121
Earth Hasn’t Warmed This Fast in 10s of Millions of Years 0920
Earth Is Setting Heat Records. It Will Be Much Hotter One Day. 0820
What's the Hottest Earth Has Ever Been? 0620 - 3,700°F in Hadean era, not long after formation of Earth, in the aftermath of the Moon's formation. Since Snowball Earth about 800 million years ago (Mya), Earth's surface temperatures reached around 90°F repeatedly, as recently as 92 Mya. 73°F during PETM, 55 Mya. Earth's surface is currently near 60°, during an interglacial, but with much ice still at both poles. Earth has rarely been as cold as the ice ages of the past 2-3 million years, since about long ice ages about 270 Mya.
11 of 12 Hottest Years Have Occurred since 2000 - 0420 - "The last time the CO2 was this high was during the Pliocene, [around] 4 million years ago. Then temperatures were 3-4°C warmer than now and sea level was 20-30 meters higher."
Antarctica Had a Polar Rainforest when Dinosaurs Roamed 0420
Climate Is Warming Much Faster than It Has in the Last 2,000 Years 0719
A World of Searing Heat and Melted Ice Caps - Climate Model of Early Eocene Is ‘Scary Finding’ for Earth’s Future 0919
PETM 55 million years ago, and surrounding few million years. Global surface was 14°C hotter than now
Ancient Upheavals Show How to Geo-Engineer a Stable Climate 0619
CO2 Levels at Highest for 3 Million Years – When Seas Were 20 Meters Higher 0419 - take 1 on study
The Last Time CO2 Levels Were This High, Trees Grew at the South Pole 0419 - take 2
Rise of CO2–Absorbing Mountains in Tropics Set Thermostat for Global Climate? 1218
Global Warming - Worrying Lessons from the PETM Past 0918 5 to 8°C global warming in only 10,000 to 20,000 years. Flooding increased 8- to 14-fold in the Pyrennes. Fertile river plain turned into arid extensive gravel plains. Sea surface temperatures reached 36°C in places, a lethal temperature for many organisms.
Scientists Have Uncovered a Disturbing Climate Change Precedent 0818 - PETM 55 million years ago. Temperatures were 10-15°C higher than now in Europe and New Zealand, with °C (104°F) heat waves for weeks at a time, actually normal for the PETM days. The tropics may have been a dead zone, with temperatures over 50°C (122°F) over much of Africa and South Amnerica. Tapirs lived near the North Pole and alligators on Ellesmere Island on the Arctic Ocean. Sea surface temperatures may have been 30°C (86°F) on the Antarctic coast. CO2 levels then were around 1,000 ppm. Changes to those conditions took place over 100s of 1,000s to millions of years; they may take only a centuryor three now.
Palaeoclimate Constraints on the Impact of 2 °C Anthropogenic Warming and Beyond 0718 - PDF, 12 pp
"Sustained warming at times over the past 3.5 million years has been accompanied by significant changes in climate zones and th spatial distribution of land and ocean ecosystems. Sustained warming at this level has also led to substantial reductions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with sea-level increases of at least several meters on millennial timescales. Comparison of paleo observations with climate model results suggests that, due to the lack of certain feedback processes, model-based climate projections may underestimate the long-terms warming in response to future radiative forcing, by as much as a factor of two, and thus may underestimate centennial-to-millennial sea-level rise.
“Even if future emissions are reduced, warming will continue beyond 2100 for centuries, or even millennia, because of long-term feedbacks related to ice loss and the carbon cycle.”
That Dinosaur-Killing Asteroid? It Triggered Global Warming, Too 0518
Why Antarctica’s Prehistoric Forests Might Foreshadow Its Future 0418
Carbon Pollution Has Ended the Era of Stable Climate 0218
We Have 5 Years to Save Ourselves from Climate Change – Harvard Scientist 0118 - highest CO2 in 12 million years, and 33 million years ago, ocen was 10°C warmer.
Thawing Mosses Tell a Climate Change Tale 1117
Ancient Oceans Were Probably a Good Bit Cooler than Previously Thought 1017
Volcanic Eruptions Triggered Global Warming 56 Million Years Ago 0817
Earth Warmed between 1750 and 1880 - 0717
How Climate Change Strangled a Jurassic Ocean Ecosystem 0717
Earth Is Warming 20 times Faster than Its Fastest Natural Climate Change 0617
Humans Poised to Cause Earth’s Fastest Climate Change in 50 Million Years 0417
Dead Sea Warns of Unprecedented Drought 0317 - world 4°C hotter than now 115K years ago, Dead Sea rain down 80%
1815 Tambora Eruption Showed Disaster from Even Small Climate Changes 0117
How the World Passed a Carbon Threshold and Why It Matters 0117
History Reveals Greenland Ice Might Melt Much Faster Than Believed 1216 - ice-free 25% of last 1.4 million years
Climate Change May Be Escalating So Fast, It Could Be ‘Game Over’ 1116
Comet or Asteroid Crash May Have Heated Earth 56 Million Years Ago 1016
Earth Is Hottest in 115,000 Years, due to Human-Driven Climate Change 1016
2 Million Year Record Indicates 5°C Warming from 400 ppm CO2, 9° from 560 ppm 0916 - take 1 on Snyder’s study
Earth Is Roughly Warmest in About 100,000 Years 0916 - take 2 on Snyder’s study in Nature
Human-Induced Climate Change Began Earlier than Previously Thought 0816
Climate Data since Vikings Cast Doubt on More Wet, Dry Extremes 0416
Earth Is Warming 50 x Faster than When It Comes Out of an Ice Age 0216
'Medieval Warm Period' Wasn't Global or Even All That Warm, Study Says 1215
Climate Change’s Toll Kept Early Dinosaurs from the Torrid Tropics 0615
Ice Cores Show 200-Year for North to South Pole Climate Lag 0515
Unprecedented 21st Century Drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains 0215 - PDF
US 'at Risk of Mega-Drought Future’ 0215 - summary of the above.
See Overviews page for an excerpt - using past to project the future.
Plio-Pleistocene Climate Sensitivity Evaluated Using High-Resolution CO2 Records - Martinez-Boti 0215 - PDF
AFTER removing ice sheet change albedo effects, climate sensitivity across millions of years falls in the 1.5-4.5°C per doubled CO2 range used by the IPCC.
Climate Sensitivity in a Warmer World - Lea 2015 - PDF - response in journal to the above article
Changes to Algae in Remote Andes Lakes Warn of Climate Change 0215
Humans Polluted the Air Long Before Industrial Revolution 0215
Man-Made Air Pollution Reduces Central America Rainfall 0215
Why Climate Scientists Are Right About How Hot Earth Will Get 0215
Ancient Climate Records ‘Back Predictions’ of Much Warmer from Current CO2 Levels 0215
Colorado Mastodon Bones Show Ancient Warmer Earth 1114
Scientists Probe Earth's Last Warm Phase (129-116 kya) 0414
Rapid Reductions in North Atlantic Deep Water During the Peak of the Last Interglacial Period 0214
Arctic Warmest in 120,000 Years 1113
PETM Spike Driven by Massive Carbon Release over 2 Decades 1013 - PDF
Warming Spike - Siberian Stalagmites Show Permafrost Peril 0613
Global Cooling as Significant as Global Warming 0613
3.5 MY Ago, Arctic Was Forested, Far Warmer 0513
Prehistoric Window on Earth's Future 0413
Late 20th Century Hottest in 1400 Year Record 0413
7 World Region Temps Back to 1 AD - JPG. Graph is shown above, 6th from the top
Arctic Summers Warmest in 600-Year Record 0413
Himalayan Adventure Foretells Climate 0313
Global Temperatures Highest in 4K Years 0313
Proxy Evidence for Warming Since 1800 0213
Underwater Forest Reveals Story of a Historic Mega Drought 1212
Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change - Hansen: Springer 1212 - PDF
Making Sense of Palaeoclimate Sensitivity - Hansen 1112 - PDF - see Water page for sea level graphs
Extreme Global Warming Caused Largest Extinction Ever 1012
High Arctic Summers Warmest in 1,800 Years 0912
Antarctic Trees 16 MY Ago, Interglacial 0912
Palm Trees Grew in Antarctica 0812
CO2 Drove Warming to End Last Ice Age 0412
1st Land Plants Plunged Earth into Ice Age 0212
Effects of 390 ppm CO2 3 Million Years Ago - Csank 0311 - PDF
Climate More Sensitive to CO2 0110
Coupling CO2 to Ice & Sea Level Over 20 Million Years - Tripati 1209 - 
PDF - See figure at right (part of Fig. 1 in article.)
CO2 & Temps to 5M Yrs Ago - Pagani 1209 - PDF
Last Time CO2 Levels Were This High 1009
15 MY Record Finds High Warming Sensitivity to Doubled CO2 1009
Tropic Warm Pool Expanded Greatly ~4 Mya, +4°C Global - Brierly 0309 - PDF
Graph of CO2 Levels over 500 M Yrs - UCSD 1208 - PDF - see top graph on Home page
Climate and CO2 Over 500 M Yrs - UCSD 1208 - PDF: includes graph above & on Home page
LT CO2 Doubling Yield Twice the Warming We Thought - Paleoclimate 0908
Deep Sea Temps + c. 15 Mya - Shevenell 0208 - PDF
CO2 Levels and Configuration of Continents 1206 - PDF - includes graph at top of this page
Geologic Record & Climate Change - Patterson 0105 - PDF Patterson re-makes the case (from 1991 and 1997 by Friis-Christensen and Svensmark) that warming (and cloudiness) in the past century has been tied to variations in solar output. However, at least 38% of annual sunspot numbers in Patterson's graph 1 (after 1934) appear too low (none shown as over 85, but 17 were actually over 100, including 4 over 149, and 1 over 200).
The high correlation between solar irradiance and cosmic rays measured on Earth is to be expected, as the sun’s magnetosphere waxes and wanes, coincident with the sunspot cycle. Low clouds generally cool Earth; they correlate reasonably well with solar irradiance and cosmis rays. However, not shown are high clouds, which generally warm Earth; they too vary with solar irradinace and cosmic rays, probably more strongly than low clouds do. This tends to [more than?] offset the cooling effect of more low clouds when cosmic rays increase. That is, the cloud elevation difference explains why surface temperatures correlate poorly with cosmic ray flux variations. But the correlations is much better before the human emissions component overwhelmed the solar the solar variation component of surface tempoerature change, that is before 1990 or 2000.
Patterson's graph below is for the North America temperature anomaly only.
For perspective, see "∆T, CO2, SO4, Sun" under Temperature Analysis on the Data page. Three files go thru 2004, 2009, and 2012. Statistical ties to the sun grow weaker from the 2004 edition to the 2012 edition. "Sun" there was sunspot number, not sunspot cycle length.
Also, sunspot cycle length (see graph 2nd below) was 12+ years from the 2001 maximum to the next maximum, probably after 2013, suggesting 0.7°C cooling, much more than we've experienced. Remember record US heat in 2012. This suggests a greatly increased role for greenhouse gases, relative to changes in solar output, epsecially after 2000.
Patterson's reasoning suggests the key role of a positive feedback loop, as permafrost thaws with warming, then adds carbon to the air. Carbon additions to the air from permafrost in recent years have been comparable to those from US vehicles. They are growing.
Paleotemperatures and ice volume of the past 27 Myr revisited with paired Mg/Ca and 18O/16O measurements on benthic foraminifera - Billups 0202 - PDF - Temperatures related to ice volumes.
Fig. 1 - Records of key climate variables over the last 20 Myr. Forcing of the model are changes in the stacked benthic 6180 record with respect to preindustrial times (a, dark blue, Zachos et al., 2008). Output is a consistent record for the Northern Hemisphere temperature change with respect to pre-industrial conditions (b, green) and sea level (c, light blue). The reconstructed CO2 record (d, orange) is obtained by inverting the relation between NH tem- peratures and CO2 data. The ∂18O curve is smoothed in order to clarify the gradual decrease over time. Atl data are available every 0.1kyr. The thick lines represent 400-kyr running mean. Grey error bars indicate the standard deviation of model input and output. For CO2 the error bar is calculated as 400-kyr running mean, for the other records it is the standard deviation on the 0.1 kyr value as used in the model.
Regarding solar output changes, in contrast to Tim Patterson's graph above for North America until 1990, Earth's total land surface temperature diverged strongly from solar output after 2001.
Still, sunspot numbers during the satellite era, particularly their square root, correlate well with solar output.
600 Years of Temperatures (Hockey Stick Graph) - Mann 0498 - PDF
GO TO .Top. .US. .Oceans. .Elsewhere. .World. .Patterns. .Paleo. .Clouds. .Sulfates. .Sensitivity.
Heating - Future - to 2050
The Way Forward - 3 More Detailed Views
SAI = stratospheric Aerosol Injction. MCB = Marine Cloud Brightening. Two major forms of Solar Radiation Management.
These Are the Places That Could Become ‘Unlivable’ as Earth Warms 1023
World Unlikely to Limit Temperature Rise to 2°C, Warns Former IPCC Chairman 0723
‘We are damned fools’ - Scientist Who Sounded Climate Alarm in 1980s Warns of Worse to Come 0723
Some Scientists Say There’s No Such Thing as New Normal for Extreme Weather 0723
Odds Are that Earth Will Cross Crucial 1.5°C Threshold within 5 Years - WMO 0523
James Hansen Warns of a Short-Term Climate Shock, with 2° of Warming by 2050 - 0523
India’s Workers Are Trapped in a Vicious Cycle of Coal and Heat 0523
World Likely to Breach 1.5°C Climate Threshold by 2027, Scientists Warn 0523
Paris Could Hit 50°C (122°F) by 2050. How Can the City Adapt? 0423
Earth Is Likely to Hit 1.5°C in 10-12 Years, Even if Emissions Decline 0123
UN Finds ‘No Credible Pathway to 1.5C in Place’ 1022
Earth Is on Track to Warm above 2°C despite Climate Action 1022
‘Virtually Every Child’ to Face Frequent Heat Waves by 2050 - UNICEF 1022
New Fossil Fuels ‘Incompatible’ with 1.5°C Goal 1022
The Heat Wave Crushing the West Previews Farmworkers’ Hot Future 0922
Why This European Heat Wave Is So Scary 0722
Rise in Extreme Heat Will Hit Minority Communities Hardest 0822
100 Million Americans Will Be in ‘Extreme Heat Belt’ by the 2050s 0822
How the Dust Bowl 90 Years Ago Prophesied Our Climate-Ravaged Future 0622
50-50 Chance Planet Will Overshoot 1.5° before 2026 - 0522
Why Some Climate Models Are Running Red Hot - Clouds, Water, Ice 0522
India’s Frequent Heat Waves a Reminder of Climate Change Impacts 0322
Middle East on Course for Huge Climate Change Losses - IMF 0322
2022 Is Forecast to Be One of the Warmest on Record 1221
Global Warming Rate over Next 25 Years Could Double the Previous 50’s - Hansen 0921
Heat Waves to Drastically Worsen in Northern Hemisphere 0821
Pacific Northwest’s Deadly Summer Augurs More Heat Waves, Deaths to Come 0721
Athens' Next Decade 'Will Be All about Heat’ 0521
Many Scientists Wrongly Say Warming Could Stop Soon after Emissions Go to Zero 0121
Climate Crisis Will Cause Falling Humidity in Global Cities 0121
Covid Lockdowns Will Only Lower 2050 Temperatures by 0.01°C, Predicts UN 1220
Earth May Temporarily Pass Dangerous 1.5°C Warming Limit by 2024 - 0920
Green Covid Recovery Could Prevent 0.3°C of Warming by 2050 - 0820
Even if We Start to Fix Climate Change, Proof May Not Show Up for 30 Years 0720
Planet Is ‘Way off Track' in Dealing with Climate Change, U.N. Says 0320
State of the Climate Report Released by UN and WMO Chiefs 0320
Climate Change Is Accelerating - ‘Things Are Getting Worse’ 1219
Return of the 'Blob' - Hawaii's Reefs Threatened by Marine Heat Wave 1019
Climate Change Will Expose Millions of Americans to ‘Off the Charts’ Heat 0719
D.C. Averages a Week Of 100° Days. Climate Change Could Make That 2 Months. 0719
Immediate Fossil Fuel Phaseout Could Arrest Climate Change 0119 - It would not slow climate change very much, until the amplifying feedbacks we have unleashed play out. But it would prevent 2 to 3°C warming that otherwise would occur by about 2400 if waited till 2050 to phase out fossil fuels entirely. That would mean the difference between continued civilization and deep (80-90%) cuts in human population. Of course, waiting longer to phase out fossil fuel use would make future warming even worse, threatening actual extinction of humans.
Global Warming Will Happen Faster than We Think 1218
Human-Induced Climate Change Makes Heat Waves 30 Times More Likely 1218
Very Hot and Very Dry Conditions Have Doubled Worldwide 1118
Record Heat Wave This Summer May Bleach Great Barrier Reef Again 1118
Climate-Warming El Niño Very Likely in 2019, Says UN Agency 1118
New Climate Report Actually Understates Threat, Some Researchers Argue 1018
How Melting Arctic Ice Could Cook the Tropics 0618
Global Warming Set to Exceed 1.5°C and Slow Economic Growth - U.N. Draft 0618
‘Very High Risk’ Earth Will Warm beyond 1.5°C – Leaked UN Report 0218
Earth's Temperature Could Spike above Key 1.5°C Target by 2022 - 0118
We Have 5 Years to Save Ourselves from Climate Change – Harvard Scientist 0118
Warming Set to Breach Paris Accord's 1.5°C Limit by Mid-Century - IPCC 0118
Sun’s Magnetic Changes Could Yield ’Mini Ice Age’, Freeze Major Rivers by 2030 - 0118
Landmark Report Defines Climate Change in Austria 1217
Australian Cities to Have 50°C Summer Days by 2040 - 1017
Ambitious 1.5°C Paris Climate Target Is Still Possible, New Analysis Shows 0917
Climate Report Says Montana Must Adapt to Warmer, Drier Seasons 0917
Meeting Paris Pledges Would Prevent at Least 1°C of Global Warming 0617
'Alarming'- Keeping Warming to 1.5°C to Shield Australia from Big Extremes 0517
Planet Could Breach 1.5°C Warming within 10 years, but Beware of Caveats 0517
Next Decade Critical for Climate Targets 0517
Extreme Weather More Likely to Hit Alberta as Temperatures Heat Up 0417
Scorching Phoenix May Be Out of Position to Deal with Climate Change 0317
Arctic Sea Ice Melt Could Trigger Uncontrollable Climate Change Globally 1116
U.S. Record Highs Will Far Outpace Lows with Warming 1116
Climate Future - Hot, Wild and with an Increasingly Visible ‘Human Footprint' 1116
As Trump Denies Climate Change, Scientists Fear We’ll Soon Blow Past 2°C 0916
Climate Change Could Cross Key Threshold in a Decade 0916
Australia Will Need to Remove CO2 from Air to Keep Warming below 2°C 0816
Scientists Warn World Will Miss Key Climate Target 0816
Negative Emissions Key to Meeting 2°C Threshold 0716 - bio-energy with carbon capture and storage. Just cutting emissions under the Paris agreement may not be enough to keep global warming from blasting past 2°C. - NCAR study
Forest Fires Can Heat Up the Whole Planet 0616 - They send carbon from peat and permafrost into the atmosphere.
The Temperature Spiral Has an Update - to 2100. It’s Not Pretty. 0516
An update to the famous temperature spiral using future climate projections
Credit: Jay Alder/USGS
Africa’s Most Vulnerable Face an Even Hotter Future 0516
Do Pacific Waters Give Early Warning of East Coast Heat Waves? 0316
Australia’s Record Temperatures for March a Warning of What's to Come 0316
Earth Is Warming 50 x Faster than When It Comes Out of an Ice Age 0216
Searing Heat Waves Could Become Annual Threat 0216
Warmer Seas Speed Up Antarctic Ice Melt 0216
Weather Forecast for the Next 5 Years - Even Hotter 0116
Next 2 Years Hottest, Says Met Office 0915
Global Warming to Pick Up in 2015, 2016 - 0915
Europe Is Parched, in a Sign of Times to Come 0915
Climate Risk in Southeast & Texas - Kinniburgh 0715 - PDF, 114 pp
More Hot Summers Loom for Parts of UK 0715
How Fast Will Rising Temperatures Shrink the Earth's CO2 Storage Spots? 0615
The Deadly Combination of Heat and Humidity 0615
The Climate Context for India’s Deadly Heat Wave 0615
The Heat and Death Toll Are Rising in India. Is This a Glimpse of Earth’s Future? 0515
Climate Change Could Overwhelm California, Obama Adviser Says 0515
Americans’ Exposure to Heat Extremes Could Rise 6-fold by Mid-Century 0515
Los Angeles Days over 95°F to Rise 5- to 7-fold from 1990 to 2050 - 0515
Warming Hiatus Will Not Stop Long-Term Global Climate Change 0415
Obama Tells Us What's to Come on Climate, Drought 0415
Rapid Global Warming to Return Soon - PDO Went Positive 0415
The Climate Is Starting to Change Faster 0315
Warming Could Hit Rates Unseen in 1,000 Years 0315
Heat in the Heartland - Climate Change and Economic Risk in the Midwest - Risky Business / Grayson 0115 - PDF, 58 pp
See key excerpts, as maps etc., in the next section: Future after 2050.
Midwest Climate Future - Missouri Becomes Like Arizona and Chicago Like Texas 0115 - summary of the above study
Climate Change Could Hammer Iowa Agriculture, Manufacturing 0115 - summary of the above study, Iowa-centric
Drought, Heat and Ice - 2015 Could Be Tipping Point on Climate 1214
Will Global Temps Soar When Trade Winds Weaken? 1214
Concern about Extremes, as Planet Gets Hotter and Colder 1214
Every Other Summer Will Be a Heat Wave in Eastern China 1014
Pacific Northwest Warming May Have Natural Roots 0914
No More Pause - Warming Will Be Non-Stop from Now On 0814
Global Warming Slowdown ‘Could Last Another Decade’ 0814
Louisville, Fastest-Warming City in U.S., Reaches for the Brakes 0814
To Slow Warming, No More ‘Business as Usual,' UN Warns 0414
Earth Will Cross the Climate Danger Threshold by 2036 - Mann 0314
Heat Waves in Eastern US Will Become Deadlier 1113
Tropics to Be 1st Region to Hit a New Climate Era 1013
Global Warming Will Increase Intensity of El Niño, Scientists Say 1013
Uncomfortable Climates to Devastate Cities Within a Decade 1013
Climate Could Warm Fastest in Last 65 Million Years 0813
Hansen Warns of "Runaway" Warming 0713
Temperature Could Rise 3°C by 2050 0312
US Heat Waves to Be Common by 2039 0312
IEA Says 5 Years to Avoid Dangerous Warming 1111
Albedo Effect of Retreating Arctic Sea Ice - Hudson 0811 - PDF Albedo warming effect of complete Arctic Ocean ice loss is ~1/4 of the rise since 1750 from added GHGs. ~15% of that ice albedo warming effect has already occurred.
Below is context for understanding projections of future warming.
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are needed to interpret the graphs below it. RCPs are newer scenarios than the IPCC used in 2007 (A2, B1, etc.)
Caveat: these appear not to include positive feedback loops, especially carbon emissions from thawing permafrost.
Below: Fossil fuel carbon emission pathways for the CO2e levels above: IPCC 5 Fig. TS-19.
The inset graph relates RCP emission paths to ppm CO2 in the air.
Four RCP emission paths are shown: in billion tonnes (Pg) of carbon per year.
In RCP 2.6, net world CO2 emissions from fossil fuels peak ~2020, at ~10% higher than today's. They fall below zero ~2075. In this case, CO2 levels peak at ~450 ppm and fall to ~420 by 2100. Relative to 1901-60, the US has already warmed 2°F. We will warm 2°F more by ~2045, levelling off thereafter.
In RCP 4.5, emissions peak ~2040, at 130% of today's, then fall to 60% of today's in 2080. CO2 levels rise to ~540 ppm. The US warms 4°F more by 2100.
Heating - Future - after 2050
Black areas are uninhabitable for humans now. Cross-hatched areas will become so by about 2070, with current trends.
These Countries Will Be Dangerously Hot by 2100 - 0523
1 in 3 People Will Live in Dangerously Hot Areas by 2080 - 0523
Earth Could Warm 3° if Nations Keep Building Coal Plants 0423
Earth Can Warm Nearly 1°C by 2100 from Agriculture Methane Emissions Alone 0323
Extreme Heat Will Change Us 1222 - health, adaptation, inequality, the future - The story compares laborers and other people in Kuwait and Basra, Iraq. Kuwaiti citizens (but not laborers). Most Kuwaitis avoid going outside. Air conditioning is a rare luxury in Basra (Garden of Eden land), where it got to 164°F on the welder's benchtop and 179°F on a tire swing on a playground. The struggle to sweat and cool off increases risk of kidney stones and kidney disease. The welder's body temperature rose 3°C, a dangerous fever, from the outdoor heat. Chronic dehydration abounds in Basra.
The Heat Wave Crushing the West Previews Farmworkers’ Hot Future 0922
A Michigan Summer Day Could Be as Hot as the Deep South by 2100 - 0822
Why Some Climate Models Are Running Red Hot 0522
How Climate Change May Shape the World in Centuries to Come 1121 - up to 4.6°C warming by 2500
What Will Climate Change Feel Like? New Tool Provides Granular Estimates 0921 - 2 examples below
Heat Waves to Drastically Worsen in Northern Hemisphere 0821
3°C of Global Warming Is Quite Plausible and Truly Disastrous 0721
Will Global Warming ‘Stop’ as Soon as Net-Zero Emissions Are Reached? 0421 - "The best available evidence shows that, on the contrary, warming is likely to more or less stop, once carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reach zero." This is incorrect. Hausfather (the article's author) says, once emissions reach net-zero, temperatures were expected to remain steady, rather than dropping for a few centuries after emissions reach zero. A NASA climate FAQ – last updated in 2007 – says that “even if we stopped emitting GHGs today, global warming would continue to happen for at least several more decades, if not centuries”.
Natural processes will remove CO2 from the air. Rock weathering will do so about 2% as fast as we we are adding CO2 to the air. But there is far more CO2 in the air from our 2 centuries of legacy emissions. At that rate, rock weathering would take 1-2 millennia to remove most of the legacy emissions.
However, the oceans and biosphere now absorb about half of human emissions each year. If the oceans keeps absorbing CO2 at the current rate, oceans will remove CO2 from the air faster than rock weathering does.
However, the oceans are unlikely to keep absorbing CO2 at roughly the present rate, or much at all, since they are aleady very close to CO2 equilibrium with the atmosphere. As Prof. Klaus Lackner (a pioneer in CO2 removal) explains, "If CO2 in the air does not rise, the rate of uptake by the ocean and the biomass both slow down dramatically. As long as the CO2 in the air goes up, the CO2 goes fast into the ocean. The atmosphere is about a year or two ahead of the mixed layer. If the CO2 in the air does not go up, the only way the mixed layer takes more is that it sheds CO2 to the next layer below. The longer you leave it that way, the slower this transport will be. It is roughly proportional to the gradient. The deeper the CO2 gets, the shallower this gradient will be. If emissions were to stop, it is the deeper ocean which has to pick up CO2 and the smaller the gradient, the slower it gets. The net result is that the uptake goes down rapidly. As a result, it will take the ocean more than 1,000 years to get in equilibrium with the air. And even then, the last 20% stays."
From another perspctive, the paleoclimate record is pretty clear that today's CO2 levels are associated with planetary surface warming of 2.5-5°C hotter than now, once changed ocean circulation from the joining of North and South America 3 million years ago is accounted for.
Summer Could Last 6 Months by 2100 - 0321 - It defined summer as the “onset of temperatures in the hottest 25% during that time period, while winter began with temperatures in the coldest 25%."
Average Arctic Temperature Could Rise 20°С by 2100 - 0321
Warming Already Baked In Will Blow past Climate Goals 0121
Climate Crisis Will Cause Falling Humidity in Global Cities 0121
Albedo Changes Drive 4.9 to 9.4°C Global Warming by 2400 - Fry 1220, PDF 15 pages
Below, Dr. Fry’s Research, in graphs
The story is similar to the study above, but with faster warming, also driven by albedo changes.
The above scenarios and results are by Dr. Fry, whose website this is.
'Past Point of No Return' - Cutting Emissions to Zero Won't Stop Global Warming 1120 - If we humans stop emissions immediately, but do not remove carbon from the air, by 2500 Earth’s surface temperature will be 3°C higher than in 1880 and seas will be 8 feet higher. To limit the potentially catastrophic effects on Earth's ecosystems and human society, at least 33 gigatons of CO2 would need to be removed from the atmosphere each year from 2020 onward.
Earth Is Setting Heat Records. It Will Be Much Hotter One Day. 0820
Heat Wave Might Be the New Normal, Thanks to Climate Change 0820
US Cities Could See 13-30 x More Extreme Heat Days by 2100, vs Early 2000s 0820
Climate Change Worst-Case Effects to Be Worse than Previous Estimates 0919 - 6-7°C, by 2100, which is 1°C warmer than the previous projection (SSP5 scenario ~ business as usual?)
What Would Happen if All the World’s Trees Disappeared? 0919 - Earth would become a vastly warmer planet (more than +12°C since industrial revolution began), whose mass extinctions may include humans.
Climate Change Will Expose Millions of Americans to ‘Off the Charts’ Heat 0719 - take 4 on study
D.C. Averages a Week Of 100° Days. Climate Change Could Make That 2 Months. 0719 - take 3
Louisiana, Florida to See Biggest Spike in Extreme Heat Days 0719 - take 2
Florida Really Tops the Charts of States That Climate Change Will Heat Up 0719 - take 1 on study
Climate Change Will Make Pittsburgh Feel Southern by 2080 - 0419
Extreme Hemispheric Heat Waves like 2018's Become More Common with Climate Change 0419
Factcheck - Is 3-5°C of Arctic Warming Now ‘Locked In’? 0319
Earth Facing ‘Global Warming Armageddon’ in Less than 150 Years 0219 5-8°C warming, like 55 million years ago
Below are scenarios which badly underestimate future changes from albedo effects, from the IPCC in October 2018.
By 2080, Global Warming Will Make New York City Feel like Arkansas 0219 - future analogs for 100s of U.S. cities
Svalbard Could Become 10°C Warmer 0219 by 2100
UK Summers Could Be over 5°C Warmer by 2070 - 1118
We Are Heading for a New Cretaceous, Not for a New Normal 1018
The Climate Won’t Stop Changing In 2100 - 1018
Trump Administration Sees a 7° Rise in Global Temperatures by 2100 - 0918
National Parks Are Getting Hotter and Drier. What’s the Outlook for 2100? 0918
Earth at Risk of Becoming ‘Hothouse' if Tipping Point Is Reached 0818 - amplifying feedbacks mentioned include permafrost thaw; loss of seabed methane hydrates; weaker land and ocean carbon sinks, starting with forest dieback and increased bacteria respiration; loss of Arctic summer sea ice; reduced Antarctic sea ice; and loss of polar ice sheets.
“To reverse the potential domino effect … requires … improved forest, agricultural and soil management; biodiversity conservation; and technologies that remove CO2 from the atmosphere and store it underground.... More broadly, 'collective human action' is required to steer us a way from this potential threshold: 'decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks’ ….”
The report projects that tipping point elements will happen at differing global temperatures.
Chinese Most at Risk of Death from Deadly Heat Waves 0718
New Evaluation of Climate Models Reveals Abrupt Changes Ahead of Schedule 0718
Global Temperature Rises Could Double Those Predicted by Climate Models 0718
Are We Ready for the Deadly Heat Waves of the Future? 0418
All of Europe’s 571 Cities Are Destined for Worse Heat Waves, Droughts, Floods 0218
PyeongChang Climate Extremes 0218
Heat Waves - Climate Change and Immigration 0218
Carbon Pollution Has Ended the Era of Stable Climate 0218
We Have 5 Years to Save Ourselves from Climate Change – Harvard Scientist 0118
The Most Accurate Climate Models Predict the Most Alarming Consequences 1217
Will Northern California Soon Have Southern California's Climate? 1017
Deadly Heat Waves Becoming More Common, due to Climate Change 0817 - European Comm., take #1
Weather Disasters to Impact 2 out of 3 Europeans by 2100, Study Says 0817 - European Comm., take #2
How Extreme Could Temperatures Become in Texas? 0817
Climate Change to Cause Humid Heat Waves Killing Even Healthy People 0817 - MIT lead author, take #2
Warming to Boost Deadly Humidity Levels across South Asia 0817 - MIT lead author, take #1
Study Finds Only 5% Chance of Avoiding ‘Dangerous’ Global Warming 0717
California’s Economy Will Suffer Plenty from Climate Change. At Least It’s Not Florida. 0717
This is How Climate Change Will Shift the World’s Cities 0717 See original URL for interactive map.
A dozen world cities (none among 7 US cities) will become hotter than any place on Earth now.
Delhi Could Become as Hot as Sharjah by 2100 - 0717
Paris Climate Deal Won’t Save Us. Our Future Depends on De-Growth. 0717
Meeting Paris Pledges Would Prevent at Least 1°C of Global Warming 0617
Humans Poised to Cause Earth’s Fastest Climate Change in 50 Million Years 0417 - take 1
The Climate Could Hit a State Unseen in 50 Million Years 0417 - CO2 levels could be highest since then. Stop emitting!
Stark Warning on Atlantic Cooling 0217
New Evidence Confirms Risk That Mideast May Become Uninhabitable 0317
Climate Change Predicted to Transform Vancouver into San Diego, at Heavy Cost 0217
Arctic Sea Ice Melt Could Trigger Uncontrollable Climate Change Globally 1116
Climate Change May Be Escalating So Fast, It Could Be ‘Game Over’ 1116
U.S. Southwest Faces 99% Risk of 'Megadroughts' due to Climate Change 1016
Negative Emissions Key to Meeting 2°C Threshold 0716 - bio-energy with carbon capture and storage. Just cutting emissions under the Paris agreement may not be enough to keep global warming from blasting past 2°C. - NCAR study
Forest Fires Can Heat Up the Whole Planet 0616 - They send carbon from peat and permafrost into the atmosphere.
The Temperature Spiral Has an Update - to 2100. It’s Not Pretty. 0516
Crocodiles and Palm Trees in the Arctic? New Report Suggests Yes. 0516 - Take 1 on study
Burning All Fossil Fuels Could Yield Global Warmth Not Seen in 65 Million Years 0516 - Take 2 on study
World Could Warm by Massive 10°C, if All Fossil Fuels Are Burned 0516 - Take 3 on study
Unusual Heat Waves in Africa Will Soon Be the Norm 0516 “Unusual" means record-breaking, hot & dry never seen before.
Warming Means Nicer U.S. Weather, But It Won’t Last 0416
Earth Is Warming 50 x Faster than When It Comes Out of an Ice Age 0216
Searing Heat Waves Could Become Annual Threat 0216
Warmer Seas Speed Up Antarctic Ice Melt 0216
Boulder Scientists Warn Planet Is Nearing Critical Warming Threshold 0216
Ocean heat inertia guarantees 0.5°C more warming, even if CO2 stays no higher than 400 ppm.
Sea-Level Rise ‘Could Last Twice as Long as Human History’ 0216 - take 1
What the Earth Will Be Like in 10,000 years, according to Scientists 0216 - take 2
'If the World Ends in 2100, We’re Probably OK’ 0116 - It doesn’t so we’re not OK.
Analog: 55 million years ago, +5-6°C over 4,000 years. Long-term climate sensitivity exceeds 4.5°C for CO2 doubling.
Paris Climate Limit Will See Some Parts of World Warm by 6°C 0116
Global Warming Could Make Hajj Impossible Later This Century 1015
Intolerable, Unimaginable Heat Forecast for Persian Gulf 1015
Worst-Case Scenario for Sea Level Rise - No More New York, Berlin or Shanghai 0915
Climate Scientists Fear ‘Day After Tomorrow’ Scenario 0915
Concerns Deepen about a Climate-Change ‘Wild Card’ 0915
Vietnam Ready to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions 0815
Climate Change Could Give San Francisco the Climate of San Diego 0815
More Hot Summers Loom for Parts of UK 0715
How Fast Will Rising Temperatures Shrink the Earth's CO2 Storage Spots? 0615
The Deadly Combination of Heat and Humidity 0615
NASA’s Tons of Data Help Developing Nations Prepare for Global Warming 0615 - below, 45°C = 113°F.
RCP 8.5 (see 2 maps below) is the highest human emissions case; it may include a bit of permafrost carbon emissions.
The Indian Ocean surface is mostly 80°F in this projection, but pockets of 90-100°F water surround Indonesia and Malaya. Seas around Siciy and Greece also hit 90°F. The Red Sea surface reaches 110°F. Normal temperatures reach 100°F in much of the US and eastern China.
The Heat and Death Toll Are Rising in India. Is This a Glimpse of Earth’s Future? 0515
Americans’ Exposure to Heat Extremes Could Rise 6-fold by Mid-Century 0515
Scientists Say Globe Could Warm 6°C by 2100, Call for Action Before Paris 0415
California Facing Extreme Heat Waves and Rising Seas 0415
The Climate Is Starting to Change Faster 0315
Warming Could Hit Rates Unseen in 1,000 Years 0315
Study Predicts Global Warming Will See Australian Deserts Grow Bigger 0215
Climate Change Will Hit Australia Harder Than Rest of the World 0115
°C median projected changes in temperature for 2080-2099, relative to 1986-2005, for (a) summer, (b) autumn, (c) winter, and (d) spring under a modeling scenario that has littl reduction in demissions (RECP8.5).
Source: CSIRO
Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains - Cook 0215 - PDF
excerpt on Overviews page.
US 'at Risk of Mega-Drought Future’ 0215 - summary of above study
Heat in the Heartland - Climate Change and Economic Risk in the Midwest - Risky Business / Grayson 0115 - PDF, 58 pp
Days above 95°F will roughly triple. (See Figure 1, partly excerpted below.) This includes 75-100 such days a year for southern Illinois (Carbondale, Cairo, Vincennes, plus Decauter) and more than half of Missouri (St. Louis, Cape Girardeau, Joplin, Sedalia, Rolla, Poplar Bluff, Hannibal, etc.) It also includes Evansville IN, plus slivers of Ohio between Portsmouth and Marietta and Iowa north of Hannibal. 75-100 days a year above 95°F is almost as hot as Las Vegas (99-114, 2012-14).
The Midwest in particular will experience rising temperatures, in terms of warmer winters more than unbearable summers. But by the end of the century, the average Midwesterner will likely see 22 to 77 days per year over 95°F, compared to only 3, on average, over the past 30 years.
There is a 5% (or more) chance that 125-150 days a year will exceed 95°F in much the same area (plus Terre Haute and Jasper IN and Effingham IL, but minus Hannibal and Sedalia MO). See the rest of Figure 1 in the report for the 5% tail.
These compare to 114 days above 95°F for Las Vegas in 2014, 95 such days in 2013, and 115 in 2012. The southern Midwest can become hotter than Las Vegas by the end of the century (or a little later), if current emission trends continue.
Heat in the Heartland - Exec Summary 0115 - PDF, summary of the above study
Heat in the Heartland - General Regional Summary 0115 - PDF, a piece of the above study
Heat Stroke Index (Wet Bulb Temperatures) .
Below, based on current emission trends (maps from Figure 3 in the report), summers in Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana grow hotter by 2100 than Texas and Arizona ones today. Iowa and Ohio ones grow as hot as Texas ones now. Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin summers grow almost as hot.
At left mostly above (from Figure 4 in the report), heat stroke days will increase dramatically by the end of the century, from none now. Most of Missouri, Illinois and Indiana would suffer 40-60 days a year of dangerous heat: as bad (hot and humid) as anywhere in Texas. Ohio and Iowa would see 30-50 such days a year.
Worse, all of Illinois - and most of Missouri, Iowa, and Indiana - would experience 10-25 days a year of extremely dangerous heat: hotter (wet bulb) than anywhere in Texas.
In fact, “On our current path, the Midwest will likely see an average of as many as 3 days per year of Category IV conditions, which have never been experienced in the U.S. to date.”
Heat in the Heartland - Agriculture Impacts 0115 - PDF, a piece of the above study. Highlights are below.
Agriculture will be harmed in a major way. Crop losses of 40-64% by 2100 are likely for corn in the Corn Belt and 8-38% by 2100 for soybeans in the same states (IA, IL, IN, OH, MO). The Corn Belt will have moved into Canada, North Dakota, and NW Minnesota. See maps and table below. In most of Missouri and Illinois, plus about half of Iowa and Indiana, crops losses are 25-50%, and worse in a few places. Wheat is much less affected, as it is often grown in the colder months and harvested by June.
Midwest Climate Future - Missouri Becomes Like Arizona and Chicago Like Texas 0115 - summary of the above study
Climate Change Could Hammer Iowa Agriculture, Manufacturing 0115 - summary of the above study, Iowa-centric
Capping Warming at 2°C Not Enough to Avert Disaster, Experts Warn 1114
With Heat and Humidity, Areas Will Become Unsuited for Outdoor Activity 0914
Warming Will Cut Human Work Capacity a Lot 0213
Earth, 2300 - Too Hot for Humans 0510
Projected regional wet-bulb temperatures for an average global temperature increase of 12°C.
Human cannot survive wet-bulb temepratures over 35°C. (Image from Steven C. Sherwood / Matthew Huberb)
Most of the eastern US, India, Australia, the Middle East, and central South America become uninhabitable. Also Spain, China from Shanghai to Tianjin, Egypt, and west Africa.
from 2013 draft US National Climate Assessment (& Overviews page - see RCP paths there)
World Warming: from IPCC's 2007 Science Summary. 1°C (below) = 1.8°F (above). Projected warming is faster in the US than the world as a whole. Relative warming increases toward the poles (see below). Observed warming was 0.2°C in 2000, relative to baseline.
-------------------
below: World Warming: from IPCC's 2013 Science Summary, relative to 2005, not 1951-80.
So, add 0.6°C to get temperature change since 1951-80 baseline. Note the high scenario (RCP8.5) temperature increase of 4.1°C from 2000 to 2100 in 2013 edition, compared to 3.4 (A2) in 2007 edition.
----------------------------------------------
World Warming by Location: from IPCC's 2013 Science Summary.
The 2 maps below are similar, but not identical, to the draft US National Climate Assessment's maps on the Overviews page. RCPs are summarized on the Overviews page.
Temperature rise is greater toward the poles and over land.
Dotted areas indicate high agreement among models.
4°C surface warming worldwide translates to 10°F warming averaged across the US. 6-7°F in Florida, 7-8°F in the Southeast and coastal California, but 11°F in Iowa, Minnesota, the Dakotas, and Utah/Idaho. Also 13°F over much of Alaska.
Australia's Dry South to Become Even Drier 0714
IPCC Warns of ‘Devastating Rise of 4-5°C If We Carry on as We Are’ 0414
Long-Term Warming Likely to Be Significant Despite Recent Slowdown 0314
Climate Could Warm Fastest in Last 65 Million Years 0813
Earth, 2100 AD: 4 Futures of Environment and Society 1013
Global Warming Could Kill Thousands of Australians - IPCC 1013
Hansen Warns of "Runaway" Warming 0713
Waiting on New Climate Deal Leads to 5°C Warming 0613
Venus Syndrome - Hansen 0413 - PDF
On Target for 5°C Warming by 2100 1212
Warming Track to 5°C by 2100 1212 - PDF
World Bank Fears Devastating 4°C Warming 1112
Global Warming Close to Becoming Irreversible 0312
Carbon Emissions to Defer Ice Age 0112
Warming Could Exceed 2°C in This Lifetime 1011
Earth, 2300 - Too Hot for Humans 0510 - see above
World Could Heat Up 4°C in 50 Years 1109
UN Says 6°F Rise by 2100 Likely 1009
Unchecked, +7°C by 2100 - MIT 0509
∆T to 2100, % Odds - MIT 0509 - PDF
Heating - Misc.
By Fighting the Ozone Hole, We Accidentally Saved Ourselves 0523 from another 1°C of surface heating by 2100, by CFCs and their substitutes.
More Forest Cover May Not Aid Cooling in Some Regions 0221 - Forest is dark, so it absorbs more sunlight, converting it to heat. What it replaces is not as dark, so afforestation’s albedo effect is to warm Earth’s surface. That operates in the opposite direction from trees removing CO2 from the air. The balance (+ or - °C) is an empirical matter and depends on local factors.
Research Nixes Link between Solar Activity, Climate Change 0815
Grand Solar Minimum Would Barely Dent Human-Caused Global Warming 0715
IPCC Global Warming Projections Have Done Much Better Than You Think 1013
Climate Report - How the Science Has Moved On 0913
Quiet Sun Changes Regional Jet Stream Flows, Cooling Europe 0410
Global Warming Immune to Drop in Solar Radiance 0310
Sudden Methane Rise in 2007 Puzzles Scientists 1008
Hansen 2006 Lecture 0206 - PDF
Knutson Temp Trend 0905 - PDF
Solar Warming Limits 0503 - PDF
GO TO .Top. .US. .Oceans. .Elsewhere. .World. .Patterns. .Paleo. .Future. .Sulfates. .Sensitivity.
Albedo - Clouds
Trees Release Sesquiterpene, Making Clouds, Messing with Climate Calculations 0923
The Upper Atmosphere Is Cooling, Prompting New Climate Concerns 0523
How Does Albedo Affect Climate? 0423
Atmospheric Mineral Dust May Have Hidden True Extent of Global Heating 0123
Clouds, One of Climate Change’s Great Mysteries Is Finally Being Solved 1222
Do Aerosols Make More Clouds or Brighter Clouds? 0822
Bigger Dust Storms Are Happening More Frequently 0622
Climate Change Is Making Earth Dimmer 1021 - Due mostly to fewer bright clouds in northeast Pacific, off US.
Climate-Driven Changes in Clouds Are Likely to Amplify Global Warming 0721
Greener Aviation Fuel Create Fewer Contrails, Reducing Global Warming 0621
Warm Clouds Are Cooling Earth, Confounding Climate Models 0621 - However, the amount of warm cold clouds has been increasing, while the amount of cold clouds has been decreasing.
Scientists Aren’t Sure What Will Happen to Clouds as the Planet Warms 0521
Cloud-Making Aerosol Could Devastate Polar Sea Ice 0221
Climate Worst-Case Scenarios May Not Go Far Enough, Cloud Data Shows 0620 - Clouds provide a substantial amplifying feedback. Climate sensitivity is about 5°C for doubled CO2, not 3°.
Plane Contrails Have a Surprising Effect on Global Warming 0320
Why Clouds Are the Key to New Troubling Projections on Warming 0220 Newer global climate models (GCMs) do a much better job of handling clouds, for which droplet size is very important, as is large scale (10s to 100s of kilometers): micro and macro in the same model.
These newer GCMs find that clouds diminish as Earth's surface warms. See reasons in figures below: How Climate Change Breaks Up Clouds.
Thus, they have an amplifying effect on warming. Note cloud figures with trend lines, farther below.
This means that the warming feedback concerning clouds has been considerably underestimated.
And that holding global surface warming to an acceptable level is far more difficult than most scientists thought during 1980-2015.
And the likelihood of catastrophic warming is much higher than we thought.
And Earth's carbon budget remaining to keep warming under 2°C is far less than zero.
And legacy carbon in the air is very dangerous and CO2 removal is paramount.
Causes of Higher Climate Sensitivity in CMIP6 Models 0120 - clouds; abstract +
Possible Climate Transitions from Breakup of Stratocumulus Cloud Decks under Greenhouse Warming 0219 - abstract
Clouds in New Climate Models Suggest Paris Goals May Be Out of Reach 0120 summary of study whose abstract is above
Snow and Ice Loss Causing Arctic to Reflect Less Heat 1119
A World of Searing Heat and Melted Ice Caps - Climate Model of Early Eocene Is ‘Scary Finding’ for Earth’s Future 0919
Near PETM events, global surface temperature was ~ 14°C warmer then now. Climate became increasingly sensitive to CO2 at higher temperatures. "Their model showed how clouds played a huge role in global temperatures."
What Climate Change Means for Globe-Traveling Saharan Dust 0719
How Dust from Receding Glaciers Is Affecting the Climate 0619
As the World Warms, Clouds Could Disappear 0319
Dust from Melting Glaciers Could Create Clouds 0319
4 Things That Could Kill Us Before the Cloud Apocalypse Does 0219
Climate Change Will Bring Cloud-Free Skies, for Disastrous ‘Feedback Loop’ 0219
Very High CO2 Could Suppress Cooling Clouds, Climate Model Warns 0219
Swedish Climate Study Icebreaker Reaches North Pole to Study Clouds 0818
Climate Change Is Making Nighttime Clouds More Visible 0718
Thinning Clouds Increase California’s Wildfires 0618
Study Reveals Forests Have Yet Another Climate-Protection Superpower 0118
Clouds Aren’t a Climate Thermostat, Won’t Save Us from Global Warming 1217
Clearing Clouds of Uncertainty - Zelinka 1017 - PDF, original scientific paper, 2 of 3 figures omitted. See just below.
Below, big dots are for central estimates, thick bars for standard deviations, thin bars for range, among 18 models.
2012 edition
1980 1990 2000 2010
2015 edition
Investigating the Enigma of Clouds and Climate Change 0817 - With warming, clouds are migrating toward the poles.
Clouds have their greatest cooling impact around the equator, because of the higher sun angle (overhead more often).
The Surprising Effect of Ocean Waves on Global Climate 0817
Scientists Dim Sunlight, Suck Up CO2 to Cool Planet 0717
Global Warming Tidings Get a Boost, after Cloudy Climate Issue Cleared Up 0716 - take 1 on study
The World’s Clouds Are in Different Places than They Were 30 Years Ago 0716 - take 2 on study
Ocean Warming due to Plankton Collapse 0616
Findings from Making Own Clouds Require Rethink on Speed of Warming 0516
Clouds Play Lesser Role in Curbing Warming, Study Finds 0416
Clearing Up Dust's Effect on Climate 1215
Tiny Sea Creatures Are Making Clouds over the Southern Ocean 0715
Man-Made Pollutants Increase the Cooling Effect of Saharan Dust 0415
Changes in Water Vapor and Clouds Are Amplifying Global Warming 0415
Cosmic Rays Add Little to Climate Change 1113
Pollution Yields Larger, Deeper, Longer-Lived Clouds, So Colder Days, Warmer Nights 1113
Clouds of (Slightly Less) Unknowing 1013
Ocean Acidification Makes Plankton Emit Less Cloud-Seeding Compounds 0813
Researchers Unmask Climate Secrets of Sea Spray and Clouds 0413
Bacteria Survive at High Altitudes, Seed Clouds 0113
Skeptic Torch Lights Way to New Science on Clouds 1212
Clouds Feedback Amplifies Warming 0809
Clouds Amplify Warming, Summary 0709
Positive Feedback from Low Level Clouds - Clement, Science 0709
More High Clouds Warmed Earth, 2000-04 0106
Cosmic Rays, Temp & CO2 Lags 0105
Cosmic Rays & Clouds - Marsh & Svensmark 0500 - PDF - broadly similar to, and precursor to, Tim Patterson's article and graphs above
GO TO .Top. .US. .Oceans. .Elsewhere. .World. .Patterns. .Paleo. .Future. .Clouds. .Sensitivity.
Albedo - Sulfates (& Black Carbon & Dust)
The Terrible Paradox of Air Pollution and Climate Change 0923
Dark Brown Carbon Is One Nasty Wildfire Pollutant We’ve Been Ignoring 0823
Dust Storms Are on the Rise in the Southwest. That Could Harm Health. 0723
Emission Cuts Could ‘Unmask’ Deadly Face of Climate Change 0623
James Hansen Warns of a Short-Term Climate Shock, with 2° of Warming by 2050 - 0523
More Frequent Dust Storms Could Be in Our Future 0523
Tiny Aerosols Pose a Big Predicament in a Warming World 1122 
Do Aerosols Make More Clouds or Brighter Clouds? 0822
Cleaner Air Is Now Adding to Global Warming 0722
Aerosol Emissions Masked Global Warming’s Supercharging of Tropical Storms 0522
Aerosols from Burning Fossil Fuels Are Masking Global Warming 0622
Aerosol Pollution Is Destabilizing Earth’s Climate and Threatens Our Health 0322
Below is the best-fit prediction of temperatures, based on the 2 top GHGs, CO2 and CH4, and the top sunscreen, SO4.
Below at right is Figure 8.2 (in part) from the IPCC 5th Assessment, WGI.
Tg = million tonnes
Soot Is Accelerating Snow Melt in Popular Parts of Antarctica 0222
Covid Shutdown Linked to Record Rainfall in China 0222
Will Tonga Volcanic Eruption Affect Global Climate? 0122 - not much. Tonga’s SO2 emissions were only 2% of Pinatubo’s.
Global Warming Rate over Next 25 Years Could Double the Previous 50’s - Hansen 0921
Tropical Climate Change Is a Puzzle—Could Aerosols Be a Piece? 0921
NASA Direct Measurements, including Aerosols, Show Humans Cause Climate Change 0421
Earth Warmed as Virus Reduced CO2 and Sulfur Emissions 0221
Human Aerosol Cooling Obscures 1/4 of Global Heating since 1750 - 0121
Severe 2019-20 Australia Wildfires Slightly Cooled Earth, like a Volcanic Eruption 1220
In an Odd Twist, Cleaner Air in China May Mean a Warmer Earth 0920 - subtract sulfates, unmasking warming
Climate Change Caused Havoc 2000 Years Ago 0720 - sulfates in stratosphere from volcano in Alaska caused famine in China and Mediterranean basin, fsall of Ptolemaic dynasty and Roman Republic
Particulate Matter’s Cooling Role on Earth Is Stronger than Previously Thought 1219
Cleaning Up China's Dirty Air Would Give Solar Energy a Huge Boost 0719
Global and Regional Trends of Atmospheric Sulfur 0119
Pollution in India Could Reshape Monsoons 0119
How Air Pollution Has Put a Brake on Global Warming 0318 - 0.5 to 1.1°C, according to Samset et al. (take 2, take 1 below)
Why Aerosols Pose a Deadly Climate Change Threat 0218 - Sulfate aerosols have masked up to 1/2 of warming to date.
Overlooked Tiny Air Pollutants Can Have Major Climate Impact 0118
Cleaning Up Air Pollution May Strengthen Global Warming 0118
India to Introduce Clean Fuels Faster to Combat Delhi Smog Crisis 1117 - Cut sulfur in diesel and gasoline by 80%.
How Air Pollution Is Causing the World’s ‘3rd Pole’ to Melt 0816
Sulfate Aerosols Implicated in Global Warming Slowdown 0616
How Cleaner Air Could Actually Make Global Warming Worse 0316
Why the Sahel Rains Failed – and Why They May Return 0116 - sulfate pollution over the Atlantic dampened evaporation
Meeting a Global Carbon Limit Is Cheaper Than Avoiding One - Mann 1115
Massive Wildfires by Lake Baikal Send Soot to Arctic, Greenland 0815
Man-Made Pollutants Increase the Cooling Effect of Saharan Dust 0415
Humans Polluted the Air long Before Industrial Revolution, Study Finds 0215
Mysteries in Fire and Ice 1214
Yak Dung Is Making Climate Change Worse 1214
Small Volcanoes May Be Slowing Down Global Warming 1114
Cooker Reduces Black Carbon Problem 0913 - also on Energy Use page, under Other
What’s the Role of Sulfate Aerosols in Climate Change? 0913
Oil and Gas Production Drives Arctic Ice Melt 0913
How Soot Killed the Little Ice Age 0913
Volcanic Eruptions by Size, to 27 Mya - Wikipedia
Aerosol Cooling Effect on Climate May Be Overstated 0513
Plant Particles Slow Global Warming 0413
Volcanic Activity Linked to recent Dip in Global Warming 0313
Faustian Bargain & Aerosols - Hansen 0313 - PDF
Volcanic Origin for Little Ice Age 0112
Pollution Cools, Worsens South Asia Smog 0112
Rising Air Pollution Worsens Drought and Flooding 1111
Small Volcanoes Cool Climate 0711
Asian Emissions Have Masked Recent Warming 0711
Iceland Eruption to Cool Earth Short Term 0410
Aerosols Cloud Climate Picture 1009
Sulfate Aerosol Increases & China 0809
Giant Asian Smog Cloud Masks Warming 1108
Temps, CO2, SO4, Sun Analysis 2006 - XLS
Temps, CO2, SO4, Sun Analysis 2006 - XLSX
IPCC Sulfate & GHG Levels 2002 - JPG - shown immediately below
IPCC Sulfates & GHG Levels 2002 - PDF
Albedo - Other
What Happens in Antarctica, Doesn’t Stay in Antarctica 0823
Protecting the Beasts of the Land and Sea Could Help Fight Climate Change 0322
Forests’ Climate-Cooling Effect Is Greater than Previously Known 0322
We’re 60 Years Too Late to Stop Global Warming, Sea Level Rises 1120
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Sensitivity & Speed
How a Little-Discussed Revision of Climate Science Could Help Avert Doom 0222
Have Tipping Points Already Been Passed for Critical Climate Systems? (1) The Basics 0122
U.N. Climate Panel Confronts Implausibly Hot Forecasts of Future Warming 0721
Why Low-End Climate Sensitivity Can Now Be Ruled Out 0820 - take 3, by some authors of the study
Earth Will Warm 4.9 to 7°F from Doubled CO2 - 0720 - take 2 on study
Top Scientists Just Ruled Out Best-Case Global Warming Scenarios 0720 - take 1 on study, related to one below
Climate Worst-Case Scenarios May Not Go Far Enough, Cloud Data Shows 0620 - Clouds provide a substantial amplifying feedback. Climate sensitivity is about 5°C for doubled CO2, not 3°.
Why Clouds Are the Key to New Troubling Projections on Warming 0220 Newer global climate models (GCMs) do a much better job of handling clouds, for which droplet size is very important, as is large scale (10s to 100s of kilometers): micro and macro in the same model.
These newer GCMs find that clouds diminish as Earth's surface warms. See reasons in figures in the Albedo - Clouds section above: How Climate Change Breaks Up Clouds.
And in the cloud graphs with trend lines, not as far above in the Albedo - Clouds section.
Taking into account the feedbacks involving cloud changes, these newer GCMs find climate sensitivity (∆°C for ∆ ppm CO2) of not ~ 3°,
which has the central estimate for decades, but
4 to 5.6°C.
Climate modelers and the IPCC sometimes refer to these new and improved models as "hot models".
Real-world data from satellites suggests that the modelers’ predictions may already be coming true.
"Past models have overestimated how much ice in these clouds will turn to liquid water in a warmer world — and so overestimated both the thickness of future clouds and their ability to keep us cool. Eliminating that bias, says Tan, could increase climate sensitivity by as much as 1.3°C."
For example, French scientists at the National Center for Scientific Research concluded that the new models predicted that rapid economic growth driven by fossil fuels would deliver temperature rises averaging 6 to 7°C (10.8 to 12.6°F) by the end of the century. They warned that keeping warming below 2°C was all but impossible.
Causes of Higher Climate Sensitivity in CMIP6 Models 0120 - clouds; abstract +
Time's Up, CO2 - 0819 - by President of National Academy of Sciences, former editor-in-chief of the journal Science, and former head of the US Geological Survey. 40 years later, Charney climate sensivity has been confirmed many times: 3±1.5°C per doubled CO2
Climate Scientists Refute 12-Year Deadline to Curb Global Warming 0119 - Effects mount up on a continuum, not a cliff.
The Arctic Is Breaking Climate Records, Altering Weather Worldwide 0418
Global Warming Predictions May Now Be a Lot Less Uncertain 0118
Reconciling Fast and Slow Climate Warming Modes with the Historical Record 0717
How the World Passed a Carbon Threshold and Why It Matters 0117
2 Million Year Record Indicates 5°C Warming from 400 ppm CO2, 9° from 560 ppm 0916 - Figure below is from Hansen, also shown a little farther below.
Climate May Be More Sensitive and Situation More Dire 0716
U.N. Panel to Study Tough 1.5°C Limit on Global Warming 0416
Earth Is Warming 50 x Faster than When It Comes Out of an Ice Age 0216
Sea-Level Rise ‘Could Last Twice as Long as Human History’ 0216 - take 1
What the Earth Will Be Like in 10,000 years, according to Scientists 0216 - take 2
The Mystery of the Expanding Tropics 0216 - Why are they AND sub-tropics spreading far faster than models predict?
Why Climate Scientists Are Right About How Hot Earth Will Get 0215
Ancient Climate Records ‘Back Predictions’ of Much Warmer from Current CO2 Levels 0215
Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level & Atmospheric CO2 - Hansen 0913 - PDF, 32 pp
Key sea level graphs are on Overviews page.
Not Long to Wait Till Released CO2 Turns Up Temperature 1214
Prehistoric Proof of Climate's See-Saw Sensitivity 0814
Ocean Chemical Cycles Will Be Upset by Climate Change 0913
Tropical Ocean Key to Global Warming Hiatus 0813
Temperature Sensitivity to Doubled CO2 0513
Doubled CO2 Sensitivity Estimates 0313
Making Sense of Palaeoclimate Sensitivity- Hansen 1112 - PDF - also above (Paleo) and on Water page. It has climate sensitivity estimates from 38 pale-climate studies. Hansen "discards" 11 of the 38.
Below, Hansen draws Figure a from 800 K years, like Figure c (earlier, also by Hansen). Figure b is drawn from the last 20 M years, according to van der Wal. Figure d melds all 3. Slow feedbacks include albedo (reflectivity) changes due to changes in vegetation and extent of ice sheets, as well as plate tectonics, weathering, and some aspects of the carbon cycle. Fast feedbacks include cloud coverage, snow extent, sea ice, upper ocean heating, carbon emissions from permafrost and methane hydrates, and most aspects of dust and aerosol changes.
Figure b indicates eventual warming of 5-6°C from today's CO2 levels (and 10°C with CO2 double 1750 levels), but only as much as we have already observed from fast feedbacks alone.
Most Accurate GCMs Show 8°F Warmer by 2100 1112
Global Warming Close to Becoming Irreversible 0312
Earth's Energy Imbalance - Hansen 1211 - PDF
CO2, Air Temps & Sea Levels Levels Over Past 20 Million Years - van der Wal 0211 - PDF
IPCC Understates Case for Man-Made Warming 0310
Climate Changing Far Faster Than Projected 1109
Climate Sensitivty Over 15 MY - Tripati 1009 - PDF
Climate Change Outpaces Estimates 0209
Too Late to Avoid Big Warming 0907
Misc.
Scientists Say the Ozone Layer Is Recovering 0914
Smell of Forest Pine Can Limit Climate Change 0214
Solar Variability Has Only a Small Effect on Climate Change 1213
Sun's Quiet Spell Not the Start of a Mini Ice Age 0713
Precipitation Change in Human vs Natural Warming 0113
Diatoms Linked to More Storms Recently 0611
CO2 Effects on Plants Increases Global Warming 0510
NASA Study Debunks Global Cooling 0310
IPCC Errors Trigger Push for Reform 0210
Atmospheric Dry Spell Eases Global Warming 0110
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BY GENE FRY 2023