Heat

     Clouds raflect 59-60 W per square meter and the atmosphere 1/3 that much.

     Immediately below are 9 graphs of Earth's temperature history over the past 600 million years, over ever shorter time spans.  The 600-million-year graph below uses surface temperatures, but the graph below it uses deep ocean ones.  Until the past century, the fastest warming shown below has been about 0.4°C per century.

    Farther below are articles about heat, arranged in 10 major groups: US Temperatures, Ocean Heat, Warming Outside the US, World Temperatures, Heating Patterns, Paleo-Temperature Records (see the graphs just below), Future Temperatures, Clouds & Heat, Sulfates & Cooling, and Temperature Sensitivity (& Speed) to Doubled CO2.  The many articles on permafrost and seabed methane hydrates are found on the Carbon + & - page.

     Month and year follow each article's name.  PDF files are so marked, after month and date, some with authors noted.  Within sections, more recent files appear above older files.

     Above temperatures (and CO2 levels) are approximate.

   The PETM warming spike 55 million years ago was ~ 4 to 5°C (or 6°C, estimate not shown here) over just 10,000 years.  That’s 0.04 to 0.06°C / century.

   Temperature variation from peak to nadir increased, espcially over the last 1-2 million years. Temperature rose from -1.2°C to +2.6°C over a “short” time about 130,000 and 430,000 years ago.           

   Temperatures at left are from the ice surface at the time, rather than from the deep ocean (above).  Earth’s surface may have warmed 50% as fast as the south pole / Vostok.

    Vostok warmed ~8°C from 18,000 to 10,000 years ago, which is ~0.1°C / century.  However, polar regions have warmed 2 x as fast the planet as a whole.  So, warming was 0.03 to 0.05°C / century worldwide.

   Polar warming ~ 130,000 years ago was almost 10°C over only ~8,500 years, ~20% faster.  Globally that’s 0.035 to 0.055°C / century.




     In the graph at left, Earth warmed (scale at left) by 0.6°C (0.4°C less -0.2°C) from 11,400 to 9,600 years ago.  This rate was 0.033°C / century.
     That’s slightly slower than the rate ~130,000 years ago, and somewhat slower than the rate from 18,000 to 11,400 years ago.

     The graph above also suggests that our current interglacial period warming peaked about 7000 years ago.  So we have been heading slowly into the next ice age.  Milankovich cycle at work.  A Medieval warm period peaked ~900 AD.  Three Little Ice Ages show up around 1250 AD, 1500 AD, and 1750 AD.  The descent into the next glacial period was interrupted about 1750 AD, with cool blips 1815-1820 and 1885-1890.

     However, the graph above shows temperatures changes in northern hemisphere SUMMERS.  Due to cyclical changes in Earth’s orbit, temperatures actually ROSE during nothern hemisphere WINTERS since 7,000 years ago, as CO2 concentration gradually rose, from about 260 ppm to 280 ppm. (Baker 2017, re Marcotte)
     The graph below gives another perspective on the same time period, based on multiple studies.



Above: gray is from boreholes.                 Below: NASA Data, from thermometers

     The graph above, especially the magenta line, suggests Little Ice Ages from 1100 to 1300 AD, again about 1550 to 1720 AD, and again from 1780 to 1870 AD.  The Viking Greenland colony died out during the 1st.  The current warming appears much larger than in the Medieval Warm Period, which peaked about 1,000 AD.
     Research in 2012 indicated the 2nd was due to Columbus - introducing European diseases to North America wiped out most of the people there, so the forests grew back, removing lots of CO
2 from the air.
     Some have connected a 3rd Little Ice Age to the lack of sunspots during the Maunder Minimum from 1645 to 1715 AD. (Observations during the satellite era show that solar output is slightly (0.04%) lower in periods with few sunspots and slightly higher (0.04%) when sunspots peak.)

ZJ = 10 years of US energy use.  1022 Joules = 100 years of US energy use.  
   As shown at left, almost all of Earth’s heat gain goes into the oceans.  Until very recently, Argo buoys don’t go (& measure temps) below 2000 meters.  Atmospheric heat gain is an especially small part of the total.  But it’s what we experience, as weather / climate.



         An annotated version of the graph above is near the bottom of this page.

     Sea + Land surface warming rate over the past century was ~1.2°C.  That compares with rates of 0.03 to 0.06°C warming highlighted above: for the PETM spike 55 million years ago, and coming out out the 2nd most recent and most recent ice ages ~130 and ~10 thousand years ago.  Thus, current warming is 20 to 40 times as fast as the previous fastest warming episodes we can find.

Heating - Now - US
US Cities Summer Highs Temperature Trends - Dr. Fry’s Research

     The 26 places below have a slight negative urban heat island effect trend.

But the 330 below those here have a slight postive one.


330 Cities, 41 Years

     

    The graph at right shows recent temperature changes and trends for 330 places scattered around the contiguous (lower 48) US.  Allocation of places among regions and states is based partly on area and partly on population.  So is allocation of places within each state.
     US summer highs in general (averaged over 122 days each year from June 1 thru September 30) have risen a lot over the past 40 years, almost all in the last 20.

In contrast, the average of daily lows in winter does not show such a trend.
The winter lows trend is up for the 1st half  of the period, and down for the 2nd half.
The 42-year trend for winter daily lows was slightly upward.     

The map below shows the 330 places + 18 more in Alaska and Hawaii.

     100% of states and 95% of places showed a warming trend for summer highs over the past 20 years (1995-2015).  100% of states and 92% of places showed one over the past 40 years (1975-2015).


  The faster warming areas, if they keep warming at their respective rates for the most recent 20 years, will have typical daily summer high temperatures before 2100 that are as hot as Las Vegas ones NOW.

      64 of the places that woud get as hot as Las Vegas relatively soon are shown in the table below (also on the Home page).  51 would get that hot by 2100.  Overall, 82 of the 330 (including 10 more in Texas, 5 in California, 4 in Kansas, and 12 elsewhere) would get summers as hot as Las Vegas now by 2100 - IF 20-year trends continue.  31 of those (including 10 in Texas, 6 in California and 4 in Kansas) are not shown in the table below.

     See the Data page for full data for the 330.


     If warming continues at the rate experienced over the past 20 years, 29 of the 49 states examined experience typical summers as hot as Las Vegas now before 2200.  8 of them become that hot by 2100, including Kansas
.


     119 places , as well as 7 in Alaska and 2 in Hawaii, are shown on the 2 maps below.  The upper map shows trends (°F / century) over the last 20 years, the lower map over the last 40 years.  More detail is available on the Data page.

     The trends are almost identical (+5.8 and +10.5 or 10.4°F / century) for the 330 places and its subset of 119.  The 330 includes most US weather stations that are largely free of missing data.  New Haven CT, Stockton CA, Provo UT, Lancaster CA, Pensacola FL, and Visalia CA are the largest metro areas without a weather station included.

2017 Update



When will 2012 heat, the US record to date, become the new normal?

     Years when 2012 (the hottest summer in US history) summer highs are expected to be the new normal, assuming warming continues at the rate for the last 20 years -  in 48 states are shown on the Data page, in the States Warming Summary table.

     2012 was cooler than normal in Florida, Louisiana, Washington, Oregon, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Arizona, California, Tennessee, New England, and New Jersey.  But 2012 heat could become the new normal in Nevada (2016), Virginia (2017), Texas (2018), Idaho (2019), Utah (2021), New York & Pennsylvania (2022), Kentucky (2025), Colorado & New Mexico (2026), Wyoming (2030), and Kansas (2032).     

Below are the summary graphs for the 8 major regions, based on the 119 places.
Place and state graphs are on the Data page.


US 26 Cities Other Temperature Trends - also Dr. Fry’s Research

     Trends in daily winter highs are less pronounced in the last 22 years, but appreciably greater over the last 43 years.


     While trends in summer and winter daily highs are quite pronounced, trends in daily summer lows are not.  Trends in winter daily lows are not pronounced either over the 43 years.  But there are strong and opposite trends in winter lows for the 1st and 2nd halves of the study period.  See below.

     See Data page for more details.

Heating - Now - US - Other Studies

May Was Warmest on Record for USA, Breaking Mark Set during Dust Bowl 0618

As Warming Continues, Hot Drought Becomes the Norm, Not an Exception 0518

Are We Ready for the Deadly Heat Waves of the Future? 0418

East Coast Shatters Temperature Records, Offering Preview to a Warming World 0218

Hurricanes and Heat Waves - Stark Signs of Climate Change ‘New Normal’ 1217

     8 states see record high average temperature for 1st 11 months of 2017.

2017 on Track to Be 3rd Hottest Year in US 1017

Fires, Heat Waves, Hurricanes - Why This Summer's Extreme Weather Is Here to Stay 0917

Potent Mix of Record Heat and Dryness Fuels Wildfires Across the West 0917

The Hottest Month Ever Recorded Was in Death Valley Last Month 0817

As the Northwest Boils, an Aversion to Air-Conditioners Wilts 0817

Miami Just Had Its Hottest Month on Record 0717

Deserts, Mountains Had Record Hot Average Temperatures for Early Summer 0717

California Has Some of Highest Temperatures Ever Recorded, amid Heat Wave 0617

14 States See Hottest Year to Date, 18 More the 2nd to 5th Hottest 0517

It’s So Hot in Phoenix That Planes Can’t Take Off 0617

Warm Winter Is a Reminder that the Era of Climate Extremes Is Here 0317

February’s US Warmth, Brought to You by Climate Change 0317

Chicago Had No Snow on the Ground in January or February, a New Record 0217

US Record Warm Days Outnumbered Record Cold Ones, 736 to 0, Last Week 0217

Heat Waves Scorch the Arctic, Australia, Parts of U.S. 0217

Northeast Warming More Rapidly than Most of US 0117

Toasty October Keeps U.S. on Track for Its 2nd-Hottest Year 1116

Record Warmth Helps Shrink U.S. Carbon Emissions 1016

Global Warming Trend Warms the U.S. West, Leaves East Shivering 0916

Eastern USA Swelters, New York City Heat Index Approaches 110°F - 0816

Warming at Alarming Rate, Lake Tahoe Reflects Rapid Sierra Climate Change 0716

Heat Dome Has 10s of Millions Sweating, from Minneapolis to Mississippi 0716

Montana’s Rivers Are Warmer than They Should Be - Bad News for Trout 0716

Alaska Has Been Breaking Heat Records like It's Going Out of Style 0716

Few in U.S. Will Escape Stifling Heat by Next Week’s End 0716 - In June, record highs for the date outnumbered lows 14:1.

June Was Record-Hot for the U.S., and $Billion Weather Disasters Surge to 8 - 0716

Heat Wave Lifts June to Record Hot Temp for U.S. 0716

Temperatures Set to Top 120°F, as Monster Heat Wave Hits Southern California 0616

Phoenix Could Hit 122° during Massive Southwest Heat Wave 0616

Western U.S. Snowpack Melting At Record Speed 0516

3rd Warmest Year-to-Date in the U.S. 0416

Do Pacific Waters Give Early Warning of East Coast Heat Waves? 0316

U.S. Posts 2nd Hottest Year on Record 0116

Warmest Christmas Eve Ever on the East Coast Is Shattering Records 1215 - see average daily temperatures below

Hoping for an Average U.S. Winter?  Forget It. 1215

East Coast Heads for Record-Breaking Christmas Heat Wave 1215

   At left/below, 6,000 record warm temps Dec. 1-20, 2016.  Average of daily high & low temps often 9°F above average in the East.

Rising Temperatures Kick-Start Subarctic Farming In Alaska 1115

4 Western States Could See Warmest Year on Record 0915

It’s after Labor Day, So Why Is It Still So Hot? 0915

Global Warming Has Made California’s Drought Worse 0815 - Warming increased evaporation, regardless of rain.

Latest Forecast Suggests 'Godzilla El Niño' May Be Coming to California 0815

As Alaska Burns, Anchorage Sets New Records for Heat and Lack of Snow 0715

The Big Unchill 0715 - record heat in Barrow and othr parts of Alaska

Seattle on the Mediterranean 0715

Record Heat Expected for Northwest, Already Parched by Drought 0615

U.S. Summers Bringing More and More Heat 0615

Alaska Just Had Its Hottest May in 91 Years of Record-Keeping 0615

Barrow, Alaska - the Last Place You'd Expect to Find Record Warmth 0515

Scientists Pore Over Warm West, Cold East Divide 0415

California’s 2015 to Date is Its Warmest on Record 0415

Lake Tahoe’s Winter, Way of Life Threatened by Drought, Climate Change 0315

Baked Alaska - Barrow Warmer than Atlanta 0315

The Winter of 2014-15 Was the Season that Divided America 0315

17 U.S. Cities on Track for Hottest Year 1214

Hot Harbinger - Torrid Northwest Summer a Glimpse into Region’s Future 0814

Hot and Getting Hotter - Heat Islands Cooking U.S. Cities 0814

In California, Record Heat Adding to Extreme Drought 0814

As the World Warms, Part of the American Southeast Cools 0514  (see map below)

For 1st Time in 20 Years, US Cold Records May Beat Warm Ones 1213

Lake Michigan's Record Low Begins a New Era for Great Lakes? 0713

Record June Heat in US Southwest 0613 

All-Time Heat Records Broken in ... Alaska! 0613  

US Winter 2012-3 Warmer & Wetter Than Average 0313

2012 Broke US Heat Records 0113 

2012 Smashes Record for Hottest Year in US 1212

1991-2011 Average, Less 1901-1960 Average, also on Overviews page

Observed US Temp ∆ 1931-2001

July 2012 Hottest Month Ever in US 0812

US 2012 Q1-2 Hottest on Record 0712

US Sets 4 Major Heat Records in First Half of 2012 0612

Record US Warmth in Q1 2012 0412

Warm Winter Hurts US Business 0212

Texas Record Heat & Drought = New Normal 1011

Texas Sets Record for Hottest Summer in US 0911

US Summer Warmest in 75 Years, New Records 0911

US Record Highs Outnumber Lows 2 to 1 1109

Record Hi's vs Record Lo's

Heating - Now - Other Areas

May and April 2018 Were the Hottest in Germany since Records Began in 1881 - 0618

Pakistan’s ‘Shocking' Spring Heat Drives Up Water Use, Health Risks 0518

A Pakistan City May Have Suffered the Hottest April Day Ever Observed on Earth 0518

Pakistan’s 114°F Is Just One of Many All-Time March Records Toppled in Asia 0418

Unusually High Temperatures In Arctic Rise In Frequency 0318

It Was Officially New Zealand's Hottest Summer on Record 0318

It Will Be Warmer at the North Pole Next Week than Much of Europe 0218

North Pole Surges above Freezing in the Dead of Winter, Stunning Scientists 0218

Arctic Soars 45°F above Normal, Flooded by Very Mild Air on All Sides 0218

Insurers Say Canadian Weather Getting Hotter, Wetter and Weirder 0118

Heat Wave Is Melting Asphalt in Southern Australia as Eastern US Freezes 0118

Abnormal Cold in the United States Doesn’t Disprove Global Warming 1217 - record heat in Europe, north Asia

Warming of the Arctic Is Unprecedented over the Last 1,500 Years 1217

Arctic Data Shows No Pause in Global Warming 1117

India Battles to Balance the Economy and the Environment 1117 - up to 48°C heat; much else about solutions

Sumatran Region Heats Up as Forests Disappear 1017

Europe's Hot, Fiery Summer Linked to Global Warming 0917

Arctic Voyage Finds Global Warming Impact on Ice, Animals 0817

Europe Heat Wave Sparks Health Warnings, as Temperatures Soar 0817

Earth’s Most-Populated City, Shanghai, Just Recorded Its Hottest Day Ever 0717

Heat and Drought Feed Wildfires in Italy, Threaten Beaches near Rome 0717

Swathes of South China under Water, Heat Strikes North 0717

Global Warming Tipped Scales in Europe’s Heat Wave 0617

Scientists Rescue Samples of Melting Bolivian Glacier for Posterity 0617

London Mayor Issues Emergency Air Quality Alert, amid Heat Wave 0617

India's Rising Temperatures Are Already Deadly 0617 approaching Death Valley levels - in May

The Arctic Is Warm Again Because Of Course It Is 0317 - 2017 Arctic temperatures to average 5-7°F above normal.

Global Warming Made Australia's Record Sizzling Summer 50 x More Likely 0317

Can Australia's Wicked Heat Wave Convince Climate Change Deniers? 0217 - Sydney suburbs hit 117°F.

Heat Waves Scorch the Arctic, Australia, Parts of U.S. 0217

It’s About 50°F Warmer than Normal near the North Pole, Yet Again 0217

Winter of Blazing Discontent Continues in the Arctic 0217

January Was Hottest Month on Record in Sydney and Brisbane 0117

Intense Heat Grips Eastern Australia 0117

Tibetan Tree Rings Trace Climate Change to 1870s - 0117

How Reindeer and Caribou Help Cool the Arctic 0117

Sydney Air Pollution Alert Issued, as Temperature Heads to 38°C - 0117

Record-Breaking Extreme Weather in Australia in 2016 Devastates Ecosystems 0117

Arctic Heat Wave Could Break Records 1216

North Pole to Warm to Near Melting Point This Week, 50°F above Normal 1216

The Arctic Just Had Its Hottest Year on Record, ‘by Far’ 1216

'The Arctic Is Unraveling,' Conclude Scientists after Latest Climate Report 1216

Amid Higher Global Temperatures, Sea Ice at Record Lows at Both Poles 1116

The North Pole Is an Insane 36°F Warmer than Normal, as Winter Descends 1116

Australia Has More Extreme Fire Weather, Hotter Days, as Climate Changes 1016

Indian Salt Producers Cope with 48°C Heat 0916

The Blob - How Marine Heat Waves Are Causing Unprecedented Climate Chaos 0816

Epic Middle East Heat Wave Could Be Global Warming’s Hellish Curtain-Raiser 0816

Kuwait Fries at 54°C (129.2°F), Record Hot for Eastern Hemisphere 0716

Tip of Antarctic Peninsula’s Temperatures Fell over Last 15 Years 0716

Deep-Blue Ponds and Streams Highlight Melting on Greenland Ice Sheet 0716

Radical Arctic Melt - ‘Extraordinary Years Have Become the Normal Years’ 0716

Amid Melting Arctic ice, Kerry Sees Looming Climate Catastrophe 0616 - 77°F in Greenland’s capital last week

Greenland Was Hotter than New York City Last Week 0616

India Hits Record 123.8°F - 0516

Unusual Heat Bakes Sri Lanka's Chicken Industry 0516

Climate Change Leaves Kashmir’s Economy High and Dry 0516

Global Warming Cited as Wildfires Increase in Fragile Boreal Forest 0516

'Perfect Storm' of El Niño and Warming Boosted Alberta Fires 0516 - Western Canada temperatures up to 20°C > normal.

Fort McMurray Wildfire Forces 1/4 of Canada’s Oil Output Off-Line 0516

Deadly Heat Wave Is Shattering All-Time Records in Southeast Asia and India 0416

Heat Wave in Greenland Triggers Record Early Start to Ice Melt Season 0416

Australia’s Record Temperatures for March a Warning of What's to Come 0316

Record-Breaking Temperatures ‘Have Robbed the Arctic of Its Winter' 0316

Melbourne Records Its Hottest March Night since Records Began 0316

The Arctic Just Set an Ominous New Record 0316

Scientists Are Floored by What’s Happening in the Arctic Right Now 0216

Fossil Fuel Emissions behind Australia's Record-Breaking Spring Heat 0216

Yukon to Feel Impacts of Climate Change 0216

Old Man Winter Missing in Action 0216 - Alberta

Europe's Shift to Dark Green Forests Stokes Global Warming 0216

Europe's Recent Summers Were the 'Warmest in at Least 2,000 Years' 0116

Why the Sahel Rains Failed – and Why They May Return 0116

December 2015 Was the Wettest Month Ever Recorded in UK 0116 - also hottest.  Full year was 2nd hottest, 6th wettest.

Record Hot End to 2015 for Australia, as Giant El Niño Dominates 0116

Balmy Winter Hits French Ski Workers in Wallet 1215

Fire, Floods, Tornadoes - Fatal Weather Rounds out a Year of Extremes in 2015

In Canada's Far North, Warm Weather Threatens Vital Ice Roads 1215 - MacKenzie River Basin warmed 4.5°C in 68 years.

Record High Arctic Temperatures in 2015 Having ‘Profound Effects' on Region 1215

Laos Counts Climate Change Costs - Record Floods, Drought and Landslides 1115

October to Be Australia’s Hottest on Record.  Global Warming Likely to Blame. 1015

Bushfire Burns Out of Control, as Victoria Swelters in Record Early Spring Heat 1015

Australian Climate Turns Up Heat on Tennis Stars 0915

Europe Is Parched, in a Sign of Times to Come 0915

Mongolia in for Double Whammy - Drought Now, Freeze-Kill Next 0915 - Over 70 years, Mongolia heated 3 x average rate.

Heat Waves Are on the Rise in Algeria, Due to Climate Change 0815

Saharan Heat Amped Up by Climate Change 0815 - Like the Arctic, it’s warming twice as fast as the globe.

Iran City Hits Suffocating Heat Index of 165°F, near World Record 0715

Freak High Temperatures Trigger Ice Melt, Flooding, Mudslides in Tajikistan 0715

Temperatures Soar as Heat Wave Sweeps across Europe 0715

Britain, Western Europe Endure Record Heat Wave 0715

CO2 Blamed for 'Climate Expulsion,’ Raising Temperatures across Pacific Nations 0615

Heat Wave in Pakistan's Sindh Province Leaves 120 Dead 0615

The Deadly Combination of Heat and Humidity 0615

The Climate Context for India’s Deadly Heat Wave 0615

The Heat and Death Toll Are Rising in India.  Is This a Glimpse of Earth’s Future? 0515

India Heat Wave Toll Passes 1,000 - 0515

Going with the Flow - Scientists Probe Changes in the East Australian Current 0515

Huge Blob of Warm Pacific Water Threatens US West Coast Ecosystems, May Intensify Drought 0415

     The excess heat in the blob off California (1,000 miles across and 100 yards deep, 5.5°C warmer than normal) contains as much excess heat energy as the US uses for 50 years.  Its heat dwarfs human energy use.

     The 2 similar blobs farther north can be associated with record warmth in Alaska (and east Siberia).  Their excess heat ALSO exceeds yearly human energy use.

Surprising Reason Why Arctic Warming Could Be Worse than We Thought 0415

Antarctica Peninsula Warmer Than Melbourne, Australia 0315

As Ice Turns to Slush, Experts Foresee End to Outdoor Hockey in Canada 0315

Tibet's Glaciers at Their Warmest in 2,000 Years 0814

Land of the Midnight Sun Warms Fastest in World 0115

Fast Finland Warming Means Blue Christmas for Santa 1214

Arctic Still Heating Up Twice as Fast as Rest of Planet 1214

Europe’s Record Heat Directly Tied to Climate Change 1214

Australia Sweats over Extreme Hot Weather 1114

Brisbane Turns on the Heat for G20 Summit, as Monthly Records Melt 1114

1st ‘Big Heat Event' Melts Australian Temperature Records 1014

UK Winter Wettest on Record - Met Office 0214

Heat Wave Halts Australian Open Tennis Matches 0114

In Australia, 2013 Was a Scorcher for the Record Books 0114

Australia Records Its Warmest Spring 1213

Australia to Face Stronger El Niño Weather Patterns from Global Warming 1113

Arctic Warming Unprecedented in Last 44,000 Years 1013

Absolutely a Link Between Climate Change and Australian Wildfires 1013

China Tries Hi-Tech Rain Dance as It Roasts in Heat Wave 0813

China's Soaring Temperatures Prompts Grade 2 Alert 0713

Human Activity Linked to Hottest Australian Summer on Record 0613

Korea Energy Effort Hit by Heat Wave 0613

Pakistan Wilts Under Record Heat Wave 0613

China’s Rising Temperatures Linked to Carbon Emissions 0413

Top Scientists Agree Australia’s Climate Has Changed Permanently 0413

Australian Summer Is its Hottest On Record 0313

Australia Warmest in 1,000+ Years 0512

Melting Arctic Link to Cold Europe Winters 0212

Pakistan Reels Under Record Heat of 129°F in Mohenjo-Daro 0610

Arctic Warmest in 2,000+ Years 0909

Antarctica Is Warming 0109


Heating - Now - Oceans

     Just as warm air rises, so does warm water.  Warm water is at the top already.  This inhibits water's vertical mixing.  But saltier water, being denser, sinks. This promotes vertical mixing.  So can winds.  The balance among them is an empirical matter.  From 1961 to 1993, the atmosphere warmed ~50 times as fast as the ocean.  From 1993 to 2004, it warmed only 25 times as fast.  (See the bar graph, 2nd below.  Oceans weigh more than 250 times as much as the atmosphere.  Moreover, water has ~4 x the heat capacity of air, gram for gram.)  So oceans hold 1,000 times as much heat as air.

     Warming in the air at the land surface is terribly sensitive to what % of Earth's net heat absorbed goes into the ocean.  As of 2016 (see graph below),

Heat Gain - Oceans vs 6 Others - Copenhagen








Above, also on Overviews page: 1961-2003 is in blue, 1993-2003 in magenta.  More than half the 42-year change was in the final 10 years.  The graph at right (also near top of page), repeats and updates the bar graph at left.  ZJ = 10^21 Joules, which is  ~ 10 years of US energy use.

Concerning' - Marine Heat Waves Increasing, Especially near Australia 0418


2017 Was the Hottest Year Yet In the World's Ocean 0118

Arctic Sea Change 1017 - Warm Atlantic waters flow north past Spitsbergen into Arctic Ocean - along the bottom.  With shrinking Arctic sea ice, Arctic storms churn more warm bottom water to the top.

Oceans Give the Most Powerful Evidence Climate of Global Warming 1017

It Takes Just 4 Years to Detect Human Warming of the Oceans 0917

Oceans Are Warming Rapidly, New Study Confirms 0617

Earth's Oceans Are Warming 13% Faster than Thought, and Accelerating 0317

This Is How You Create a Record-Breaking Hurricane 1016

The Blob - How Marine Heat Waves Are Causing Unprecedented Climate Chaos 0816

In Warming Oceans, Stronger Currents Releasing Heat in Bigger Storms 0716

The Biggest Body of Warm Water on Earth Is Getting Even Bigger 0716

Do Pacific Waters Give Early Warning of East Coast Heat Waves? 0316

Scientists Are Floored by What’s Happening in the Arctic Right Now 0216

Unusually Warm Arctic Winter Yields Record Low Ice Extent for January 0216

Ocean Warming is Making Floods Worse 0116

Warmer Indian Ocean Could Be 'Ecological Desert', Scientists Warn 0116

The Oceans Are Heating Up Faster than We Thought.  Why That Matters. 0116

Pacific Ocean Becomes a Cauldron 1115

Collapse of New England’s Iconic Cod Tied to Climate Change 1015

Warming Oceans May Threaten Krill, Cornerstone of the Antarctic Ecosystem 1015

Heat Rising from the Depths of the Arctic ‘Could Accelerate Ice Melt' 0915

A Warmer North Pacific Is Staying Warmer, With Dramatic Impact on Marine Life 0915

Global Warming Is Reversing 1,800 Years of Natural Ocean Cooling 0815

Surprising Reason for Faster Arctic Meltdown 0715

Warming Indian Ocean Weakens India’s Monsoon 0615

Heat is Piling Up in the Depths of the Indian Ocean 0515

Going with the Flow - Scientists Probe Changes in the East Australian Current 0515

Huge Blob of Warm Pacific Water Threatens US West Coast Ecosystems, May Intensify Drought 0415

Surprising Reason Why Arctic Warming Could Be Worse than We Thought 0415

Pacific Winds Tied to Warming Slowdown, Dry West 0415

More Global Warming Hiding in the Oceans? 0513

Why Earth’s Surface Warming Slowed Recently - Heat Went to Deep Ocean 0313

US West Coast Is in Hot Water 0315

The Gulf Stream System May Already Be Weakening.  That's Not Good. 0315

Fresh Look at Ocean Side of Climate Shows ‘Unabated Planetary Warming’ 0215

Ocean Warming Understimated - 3 Perspectives 1014

Deep Oceans May Be Storing Heat 1113

More Global Warming Hiding in the Oceans? 0513

Why Earth’s Surface Warming Slowed Recently - Heat Went to Deep Ocean 0313

Levitus et al. Find Global Warming Continues to Heat the Oceans 0412

Deep Oceans Are Masking Surface Warming 0911

Multi-Decade Oscillation Goes Cool 0110 

World Oceans Hottest On Record 0809 

World Ocean Temperature Record 0709 

Warming Oceans - Levitus 0105 - PDF


Heating - Now - World

4 land surface graphs

Last 3 Years Were Hottest on Record, Severe Weather Hits 2018 - U.N. 0318

State of the Climate - How the World Warmed in 2017 - 0218 - record heat overall and in the oceans beneath the surface

PyeongChang Climate Extremes 0218

2017 Was Once Again One of the Hottest on Record 0118

2017 Was the Hottest Non-El Niño Year on Record, Thanks to Global Warming 0118

2017 Will Rank among Earth’s 5 Warmest Years, Likely 2nd - 1217

2016’s Record Heat Not Possible without Global Warming, Study Says 1217

If Oceans Stopped Absorbing Climate Change’s Heat, Land Would Average 122°F - 1117

Arctic Data Shows No Pause in Global Warming 1117

2017 Set to Be 1 of 3 Hottest Years on Record 1117

Right-Wing Media Could Not Be More Wrong about 1.5°C Carbon Budget Paper 0917

Global Warming May Be Occurring More Slowly than Previously Thought 0917

Last Month Was Hottest July, and Hottest Month, on Record – NASA 0817

July Ranks as 2nd Hottest Month on Record - NOAA 0817

Draft National Climate Assessment Finds Drastic Climate Change Impact on US 0817
     The full 545-page draft is available on the Overviews page.
     2 quotes are "
Many lines of evidence demonstrate that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are primarily responsible for the observed climate changes in the industrial era.  There are no alternative explanations, and no natural cycles are found in the observational record, that can explain the observed changes in climate. (Very high confidence)”
     “Atmospheric CO2 levels have now passed 400 ppm, last seen during the Pliocene, approximately 3 million years ago, when global mean temperatures were 3.6° to 6.3°F (2° to 3.5°C) higher than preindustrial (1750) and sea levels were 66 ± 33 feet (20 ± 10 meters) higher than today. (High confidence)"

At Midway Point, 2017 Is 2nd-Hottest Year on Record 0717

May Continues a Ridiculous Warm Streak for the Planet 0617

Warm Arctic Fuels 2nd-Warmest April on Record 0517

March Was 2nd Hottest on Record Globally 0417

State of the Warming Climate in 2016 - 'Truly Uncharted Territory’ 0317

February Was 2nd Hottest on Record, despite Flat Global CO2 Emissions 0317

Humans Causing Climate to Change 170 Times Faster than Natural Forces 0217

Extreme Heat Wave Days Already Hitting Poorer Nations More than Rich 0317

Climate Changing Faster than at Any Time since End of Ice Age - Shell 1991 - 0217

Independent Study Confirms NOAA's Conclusion - Earth Is Getting Warmer 0217

We May Be Closer than We Thought to Dangerous Climate Thresholds 0117

We’re Now Breaking Global Temperature Records Once Every 3 Years 0117

Global Warming Never Paused, Could Soon Accelerate - NASA GISS Director 0117

2016 Officially Declared Hottest Year on Record 0117

Already Debunked Global Warming 'Hiatus' Gets Another Dunking 0117

Study Confirms NOAA Finding of Faster Global Warming 0117

2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record, UN Says 1116

2011-2015  Was the Hottest 5-Year Period on Record 1116

Another Month, Another Broken Global Temperature Record 1016

Earth Is Hottest in 115,000 Years, due to Human-Driven Climate Change 1016

We Just Lived through the Hottest Summer in Recorded History 0916

Earth's Unprecedented Warm Streak Continues, as More Records Fall - NOAA 0916

August Ties July as Hottest Month Ever on Record 0916

Earth Sets Record for Hottest August, Extending Warm Streak Another Month 0916

La Niña Fizzles, Making Record Warm Global Temperatures More Likely 0916

Earth Is Warming at a Pace ‘Unprecedented in 1,000 Years' – NASA 0816

Cruel Summer - Floods, Fires and Heat 0816

Earth's Hottest Month on Record Was July 2016 - 0816

2015 Set Frenzy of Climate Records 0816

Global Warming Happening Faster Than Predicted – WMO 0716

1st Half of 2016 Blows Away Temperature Records 0716

Earth's Hot Streak Continues with Warmest May since at Least 1880 - 0616

.The Temperature Spiral Has an Update - to 2100.  It’s Not Pretty. 0516

2016 to Be Hottest Year Yet, as April Smashes Records 0516

March Temperature Smashes 100-Year Global Record 0416

March Was Earth's 11th-Straight Warmest Month on Record 0416

Earth Crushed Temperature Milestones This Winter, Nearing Climate Guardrail 0316

As Temperatures Soar, New Doubts Arise about Holding Warming to 2°C - 0316

Record Surge in 2016 Temperatures Adds Urgency to Climate Deal 0316

Earth’s Temperature Just Reached a Terrifying Milestone 0316

February 2016 Was the Month Warmest above Average Ever Recorded - NASA 0316

Here's What Climate Change Has Done to the Season Formerly Known as Winter 0316

Why Is 2016 Smashing Heat Records? 0316

Ted Cruz's Favorite Temperature Data Just Got a Lot Hotter, via Satellite Data Revisions 0316

Satellites Show February 2016 Temperatures Hit All-Time Highs 0316

Earth Is Warming 50 x Faster than When It Comes Out of an Ice Age 0216

2015 Was the Hottest Year.  2016 Will Likely Be Hotter. 0116

2015 Is Warmest Year on Record, NOAA and NASA Say 0116

2015 Shattered Global Temperature Record by Wide Margin 0116

Early Data Shows 2015 Blew Away Previous Record for Hottest Year 0116

Earth is Experiencing a Global Warming Spurt 0116

Rising Lake Temperatures May Worsen Algae Blooms 1215 - warming 0.61° per decade in world’s 235 largest lakes

Met Office Says 2016 ‘Very Likely' to Be Warmest on Record 1215

2015 Likely to Be Warmest on Record, Says UN Weather Body 1115

October 2015 Becomes 1st Month 1°C Warmer than Average 1115

Warming Set to Breach 1°C Mark 1115

Earth Just Had Its Warmest September on Record (re Japan, #2 re NASA) 1015

It’s Getting Hotter 1015

Scorching Year Continues With the Hottest Summer on Record 0915

August Smashes Global Heat Record, as Giant El Niño Builds 0915

2015 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record 'by a Mile' 0815

Global Warming Is Reversing 1,800 Years of Natural Ocean Cooling 0815

July Added to String of Record Hot Months Globally 0815

Global Warming Seen Lurking behind This Summer’s Deadly Heat Waves 0815

Will El Niño 2015 Rival 1997, the Strongest Year on Record? 0815

Latest Forecast Suggests 'Godzilla El Niño' May Be Coming to California 0815

2015 Global Temperatures Are Right in Line with Climate Model Predictions 0815   Below, black is modeled, color is actual.

Killer Heat Grows Hotter around the World.   This Is Just the Beginning. 0815

Climate Models Are Even More Accurate than You Thought 0815

1st Half of 2015 Was Hottest Ever Recorded 0715

Most Extreme Weather Has Climate Change Link 0615

2015 Is Likely to Beat 2014 as the Warmest Year on Record 0615

May 2015 Global Temperature Data Continue Breaking Records 0615

New Temperature Records Highlight Global Warming's Continued Rise 0515

2015 Hottest Year to Date, Could Top 2014 Record 0415

The Climate Is Starting to Change Faster 0315

Study Monitors CO2 Levels and Earth's Outgoing Radiation from the Ground 0215

No, the Sun Isn’t Driving Global Warming 0215

Hot January Extends Run of Record Worldwide Warmth 0215

Climate Models Don't Over-Predict Warming, Study Shows 0115

It’s Official - 2014 Was the Hottest Year - NASA, NOAA 0115

2014 Was Officially the Globe’s Hottest Year - Japan 0115

2014 Set for Record Hot; Record Cold Is Thing of the Past 1114
     Sea surface temperatures seem a sure bet to set a record.  Combined sea and land temperatures are more likely than not to set a record.  Land surface temperatures are likely to be just in the top 5.

U.S., British Data Show 2014 Could Be Hottest Year on Record 1114



     Note the globe’s major cool spot is the central (and eastern) US.











NASA, Other Data Show Globe Had Warmest October 1114

Warming Earth Heading for Hottest Year on Record - NOAA 1014

September Was Warmest on Record, NASA Data Shows 1014

NASA Ranks This August as Warmest on Record 0914

Born after 1985?  Global Warming Is the Norm 0814

July Checks In as 4th Warmest on Record Worldwide 0814

A Double Scorcher - June Joins May with Heat Record 0714

2013 Was the 37th Consecutive Year of Above-Average Temperature 0214

Ozone Treaty Accidentally Slowed Global Warming 1113

IPCC Declares "Near Certainty" on Human-Driven Warming 0813

Global Warming Is Just on Pause.  It's Down to the Oceans 0713

Climate Extremes Are Unprecedented 0713 

El Niño Unusually Active in Late 20th Century 0613 

Study Confirms Warming, without Thermometers 0413

Bounding the Role of Black Carbon in the Climate System 0213 

2011 Was Hottest La Niña Year 1111 

Earth Warmer than Average for 300 Months in a Row 0711 

2010 Hottest, Wettest 0111

Record Breaking Temperatures 0610 

April 2010 Warmest on Record 0510 

Global Warming Is Not Slowing - WMO 1209 

Graph World Temp, 5 Forcings & Predicted -
 See graph at right.

---------------------------------------------
from IPCC (2013), Executive Summary


Heating - Now - Patterns on Earth

2016 Extreme Arctic Heat Wave Wouldn't Have Occurred without Climate Change 0518

Human Emissions Made Ocean Heat Wave 53 Times More Likely 0118

How Climate Change Is Driving Extreme Heat Waves 0118

Global Warming Is Making It Harder to Get Truly Frigid Weather 0118

Abnormal Cold in the United States Doesn’t Disprove Global Warming 1217 - record heat in Europe, north Asia

La Niña Is Officially Here to Shape U.S. Winter Weather, and Global Climate 1117

It’s Like It Never Left - Another El Niño May Be on the Way 0417

U.S. Forecaster Sees Increasing Chances of El Niño Later in 2017 - 0317

Global Warming Made Australia's Record Sizzling Summer 50 x More Likely 0317

Tibetan Tree Rings Trace Climate Change to 1870s - 0117
     Before 1870, day-night temperature difference was widening.  Since then, the reverse.

This Is How You Create a Record-Breaking Hurricane 1016

Why It’s Hotter Nights, More Than Hotter Days, That Make Heat Waves Dangerous 0816

Global Warming Could Deplete the Oceans’ Oxygen, with Severe Consequences 0416

Do Pacific Waters Give Early Warning of East Coast Heat Waves? 0316

The Mystery of the Expanding Tropics 0216 - Why are they AND sub-tropics spreading far faster than models predict?

Why the Sahel Rains Failed – and Why They May Return 0116

Globally, Lakes Warming at an Alarming Rate 1215

Concerns Deepen about a Climate-Change ‘Wild Card’ 0915

Global Warming Is Reversing 1,800 Years of Natural Ocean Cooling 0815

Warming Indian Ocean Weakens India’s Monsoon 0615

“Hot Spot” Confirms Tropic Troposphere Warms Faster Earth’s Tropic Surface 0515

'Substantial' El Niño Event Predicted 0515

El Niño Strengthens.  Hope for Serious Drought Relief? 0515

75% of Heat Waves Are Attributable to Climate Change 0415

Changes in Water Vapor and Clouds Are Amplifying Global Warming 0415

Pacific Winds Tied to Warming Slowdown, Dry West 0415

Scientists Pore Over Warm West, Cold East Divide in US 0415

Welcome to the 'Double El Niño' — and More Extreme Weather 0315

Oceans May Be Lulling Us into a False Sense of Climate Security 0315

50-70 Year Ocean Oscillations Can Explain Global Warming ‘Hiatus' 0215

Concern about Extremes, as Planet Gets Hotter and Colder 1214

Stronger Pacific Trade Winds Linked to Stable Air Temperatures 0214

Santa's Revenge - Record Floods, Cold Spells, Drought Tied to Wavier Jet Stream, Due to Arctic Warming 0214

Deep Oceans May Be Storing Heat 1113

‘Missing Heat’ Discovery Prompts New Estimate of Global Warming 1113



     At left is a diagram of a typical urban heat island effect, for Portland, Oregon, on a hot summer afternoon.





Global Warming Pause Central to IPCC Climate Report 0913

IPCC Cites Global Temperature Rise over Last Century 0913

Climate Change Experts Pressed to Address Slowdown in Global Warming 0913

Human Fingerprints Visible in Atmospheric Changes 0913

Climate Extremes Are Unprecedented 0713

El Niño Unusually Active in Late 20th Century 0613 

Slower Air Warming Doesn't Mean Climate Change Has Paused 0513 

Oceans May Explain Slowdown in Climate Change 0413 

Climate Change Causes Extreme Weather 0812 

Loaded Temps Dice since 1980 - Hansen 0812 - PDF

Warming Confirmed after Climategate 1011 

Global Warming Not Happening as Fast as Models Suggested 0711 

Warming Troposphere Disproves Skeptics 1110

Warming Continues & Accelerates 0710 

Earth's Detailed Energy Budget Changes - Trenberth 1009 - PDF 

Earth & Oceans Heat Up 0.85 W/sq m 0505 

440M MW Heat Gain, 0.6°C in Pipeline - Hansen 0404 - PDF

Heating - Now - Misc.

NOAA Temperature Adjustments Bring Data Closer to Pristine 0216

Skeptic Confirms Global Warming 0712 

2010 CO2 Emissions Exceed Worst Case 1111 

WMO - GHGs Keep Growing Faster 1109


Heating - Paleo

     For 9-13 graphs of historical warming, with ever finer time resolution, see top of this webpage.

Below is Dr. Fry’s analysis, based most of all on the Vostok ice cores over the past 430,000 years.


That Dinosaur-Killing Asteroid?  It Triggered Global Warming, Too 0518

Why Antarctica’s Prehistoric Forests Might Foreshadow Its Future 0418

Carbon Pollution Has Ended the Era of Stable Climate 0218

Thawing Mosses Tell a Climate Change Tale 1117

Ancient Oceans Were Probably a Good Bit Cooler than Previously Thought 1017

Volcanic Eruptions Triggered Global Warming 56 Million Years Ago 0817

Earth Warmed between 1750 and 1880 - 0717

How Climate Change Strangled a Jurassic Ocean Ecosystem 0717

Earth Is Warming 20 times Faster than Its Fastest Natural Climate Change 0617

Humans Poised to Cause Earth’s Fastest Climate Change in 50 Million Years 0417

Dead Sea Warns of Unprecedented Drought 0317 - world 4°C hotter than now 115K years ago, Dead Sea rain down 80%

1815 Tambora Eruption Showed Disaster from Even Small Climate Changes 0117

How the World Passed a Carbon Threshold and Why It Matters 0117

History Reveals Greenland Ice Might Melt Much Faster Than Believed 1216 - ice-free 25% of last 1.4 million years

Climate Change May Be Escalating So Fast, It Could Be ‘Game Over’ 1116

Comet or Asteroid Crash May Have Heated Earth 56 Million Years Ago 1016

Earth Is Hottest in 115,000 Years, due to Human-Driven Climate Change 1016

2 Million Year Record Indicates 5°C Warming from 400 ppm CO2, 9° from 560 ppm 0916 - take 1 on Snyder’s study

Earth Is Roughly Warmest in About 100,000 Years 0916 - take 2 on Snyder’s study in Nature

Human-Induced Climate Change Began Earlier than Previously Thought 0816

Climate Data since Vikings Cast Doubt on More Wet, Dry Extremes 0416

Earth Is Warming 50 x Faster than When It Comes Out of an Ice Age 0216

'Medieval Warm Period' Wasn't Global or Even All That Warm, Study Says 1215

Climate Change’s Toll Kept Early Dinosaurs from the Torrid Tropics 0615

Ice Cores Show 200-Year for North to South Pole Climate Lag 0515

Unprecedented 21st Century Drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains 0215 - PDF

US 'at Risk of Mega-Drought Future’ 0215 - summary of the above.
     See Overviews page for an excerpt - using past to project the future.

Plio-Pleistocene Climate Sensitivity Evaluated Using High-Resolution CO2 Records - Martinez-Boti 0215 - PDF
     
AFTER removing ice sheet change albedo effects, slimate sensitivity across millions of years falls in the 1.5-4.5°C per doubled CO2 range used by the IPCC.

Climate Sensitivity in a Warmer World - Lea 2015 - PDF - response in journal to the above article

Changes to Algae in Remote Andes Lakes Warn of Climate Change 0215

Humans Polluted the Air Long Before Industrial Revolution 0215

Man-Made Air Pollution Reduces Central America Rainfall 0215

Why Climate Scientists Are Right About How Hot Earth Will Get 0215

Ancient Climate Records ‘Back Predictions’ of Much Warmer from Current CO2 Levels 0215

Colorado Mastodon Bones Show Ancient Warmer Earth 1114

Scientists Probe Earth's Last Warm Phase (129-116 kya) 0414

Rapid Reductions in North Atlantic Deep Water During the Peak of the Last Interglacial Period 0214

Arctic Warmest in 120,000 Years 1113

PETM Spike Driven by Massive Carbon Release over 2 Decades 1013 - PDF

Warming Spike - Siberian Stalagmites Show Permafrost Peril 0613

Global Cooling as Significant as Global Warming 0613 

3.5 MY Ago, Arctic Was Forested, Far Warmer 0513 

Prehistoric Window on Earth's Future 0413 

Late 20th Century Hottest in 1400 Year Record 0413

7 World Region Temps Back to 1 AD - JPG.  Graph is shown above, 6th from the top

Arctic Summers Warmest in 600-Year Record 0413

Himalayan Adventure Foretells Climate 0313

Global Temperatures Highest in 4K Years 0313

Proxy Evidence for Warming Since 1800 0213

Underwater Forest Reveals Story of a Historic Mega Drought 1212

Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change - Hansen: Springer 1212 - PDF

Making Sense of Palaeoclimate Sensitivity - Hansen 1112 - PDF - see Water page for sea level graphs

Extreme Global Warming Caused Largest Extinction Ever 1012

High Arctic Summers Warmest in 1,800 Years 0912

Antarctic Trees 16 MY Ago, Interglacial 0912

Palm Trees Grew in Antarctica 0812

CO2 Drove Warming to End Last Ice Age 0412

1st Land Plants Plunged Earth into Ice Age 0212

Reconstruction of a continuous high-resolution CO2 record over the past 20 million years - van de Wal 1211 - PDF

Effects of 390 ppm CO2 3 Million Years Ago - Csank 0311PDF

Climate More Sensitive to CO2 0110

Coupling CO2 to Ice & Sea Level Over 20 Million Years - Tripati 1209 -                
PDF - See figure at right (part of Fig. 1 in article.)

CO2 & Temps to 5M Yrs Ago - Pagani 1209PDF

Last Time CO2 Levels Were This High 1009 

15 MY Record Finds High Warming Sensitivity to Doubled CO2 1009

Tropic Warm Pool Expanded Greatly ~4 Mya, +4°C Global - Brierly 0309 - PDF

Graph of CO2 Levels over 500 M Yrs - UCSD 1208PDF - see top graph on Home page

Climate and CO2 Over 500 M Yrs - UCSD 1208PDF: includes graph above & on Home page

LT CO2 Doubling Yield Twice the Warming We Thought - Paleoclimate 0908

Deep Sea Temps + c. 15 Mya - Shevenell 0208 - PDF

CO2 Levels and Configuration of Continents 1206PDF - includes graph at top of this page

Geologic Record & Climate Change - Patterson 0105PDF  Patterson re-makes the case (from 1991 and 1997 by Friis-Christensen and Svensmark) that warming (and cloudiness) in the past century has been tied to variations in solar output.     However, at least 38% of annual sunspot numbers in Patterson's graph 1 (after 1934) appear too low (none shown as over 85, but 17 were actually over 100, including 4 over 149, and 1 over 200).
     The high correlation between solar irradiance and cosmic rays measured on Earth is to be expected, as the sun’s magnetosphere waxes and wanes, coincident with the sunspot cycle.  Low clouds generally cool Earth; they correlate reasonably well with solar irradiance and cosmis rays.  However, not shown are high clouds, which generally warm Earth; they too vary with solar irradinace and cosmic rays, probably more strongly than low clouds do.  This tends to [more than?] offset the cooling effect of more low clouds when cosmic rays increase.


Patterson's graph below is for the North America temperature anomaly only.

     For perspective, see "∆T, CO2, SO4, Sun" under Temperature Analysis on the Data page.  Three files go thru 2004, 2009, and 2012.  Statistical ties to the sun grow weaker from the 2004 edition to the 2012 edition.  "Sun" there was sunspot number, not sunspot cycle length.
     Also, sunspot cycle length (see graph 2nd below) was 12+ years from the 2001 maximum to the next maximum, probably after 2013, suggesting 0.7°C cooling, much more than we've experienced.  Remember record US heat in 2012.  This suggests a greatly increased role for greenhouse gases, relative to changes in solar output, epsecially after 2000.

     Patterson's reasoning suggests the key role of a positive feedback loop, as permafrost thaws with warming, then adds carbon to the air.  Carbon additions to the air from permafrost in recent years have been comparable to those from US vehicles.  They are growing.

Paleotemperatures and ice volume of the past 27 Myr revisited with paired Mg/Ca and 18O/16O measurements on benthic foraminifera - Billups 0202 - PDF  - Temperatures related to ice volumes.

Fig. 1 - Records of key climate variables over the last 20 Myr.  Forcing of the model are changes in the stacked benthic 6180 record with respect to preindustrial times (a, dark blue, Zachos et al., 2008).  Output is a consistent record for the Northern Hemisphere temperature change with respect to pre-industrial conditions (b, green) and sea level (c, light blue).  The reconstructed CO2 record (d, orange) is obtained by inverting the relation between NH tem- peratures and CO2 data.  The  curve is smoothed in order to clarify the gradual decrease over time.  Atl data are available every 0.1kyr.  The thick lines represent 400-kyr running mean. Grey error bars indicate the standard deviation of model input and output. For CO2 the error bar is calculated as 400-kyr running mean, for the other records it is the standard deviation on the 0.1 kyr value as used in the model.  


     Regarding solar output changes, in contrast to Tim Patterson's graph above for North America until 1990, Earth's total land surface temperature diverged strongly from solar output after 2001.

Still, sunspot numbers during the satellite era, particularly their square root, correlate well with solar output.





600 Years of Temperatures (Hockey Stick Graph) - Mann 0498 - PDF

Heating - Future - to 2050

Global Warming Set to Exceed 1.5°C and Slow Economic Growth - U.N. Draft 0618

‘Very High Risk’ Earth Will Warm beyond 1.5°C – Leaked UN Report 0218

Earth's Temperature Could Spike above Key 1.5°C Target by 2022 - 0118

Warming Set to Breach Paris Accord's 1.5°C Limit by Mid-Century - IPCC 0118

Sun’s Magnetic Changes Could Yield ’Mini Ice Age’, Freeze Major Rivers by 2030 - 0118

Landmark Report Defines Climate Change in Austria 1217

Australian Cities to Have 50°C Summer Days by 2040 - 1017

Ambitious 1.5°C Paris Climate Target Is Still Possible, New Analysis Shows 0917

Climate Report Says Montana Must Adapt to Warmer, Drier Seasons 0917

Meeting Paris Pledges Would Prevent at Least 1°C of Global Warming 0617

'Alarming'- Keeping Warming to 1.5°C to Shield Australia from Big Extremes 0517

Planet Could Breach 1.5°C Warming within 10 years, but Beware of Caveats 0517

Next Decade Critical for Climate Targets 0517

Extreme Weather More Likely to Hit Alberta as Temperatures Heat Up 0417

Scorching Phoenix May Be Out of Position to Deal with Climate Change 0317

Arctic Sea Ice Melt Could Trigger Uncontrollable Climate Change Globally 1116

U.S. Record Highs Will Far Outpace Lows with Warming 1116

Climate Future - Hot, Wild and with an Increasingly Visible ‘Human Footprint' 1116

As Trump Denies Climate Change, Scientists Fear We’ll Soon Blow Past 2°C 0916

Climate Change Could Cross Key Threshold in a Decade 0916

Australia Will Need to Remove CO2 from Air to Keep Warming below 2°C 0816

Scientists Warn World Will Miss Key Climate Target 0816

Negative Emissions Key to Meeting 2°C Threshold 0716 - bio-energy with carbon capture and storage.  Just cutting emissions under the Paris agreement may not be enough to keep global warming from blasting past 2°C. - NCAR study

Forest Fires Can Heat Up the Whole Planet 0616 - They send carbon from peat and permafrost into the atmosphere.

The Temperature Spiral Has an Update - to 2100.  It’s Not Pretty. 0516

An update to the famous temperature spiral using future climate projections
Credit: Jay Alder/USGS

Africa’s Most Vulnerable Face an Even Hotter Future 0516

Do Pacific Waters Give Early Warning of East Coast Heat Waves? 0316

Australia’s Record Temperatures for March a Warning of What's to Come 0316

Earth Is Warming 50 x Faster than When It Comes Out of an Ice Age 0216

Searing Heat Waves Could Become Annual Threat 0216

Warmer Seas Speed Up Antarctic Ice Melt 0216

Weather Forecast for the Next 5 Years - Even Hotter 0116

Next 2 Years Hottest, Says Met Office 0915

Global Warming to Pick Up in 2015, 2016 - 0915

Europe Is Parched, in a Sign of Times to Come 0915

Climate Risk in Southeast & Texas - Kinniburgh 0715 PDF, 114 pp

More Hot Summers Loom for Parts of UK 0715

How Fast Will Rising Temperatures Shrink the Earth's CO2 Storage Spots? 0615

The Deadly Combination of Heat and Humidity 0615

The Climate Context for India’s Deadly Heat Wave 0615

The Heat and Death Toll Are Rising in India.  Is This a Glimpse of Earth’s Future? 0515

Climate Change Could Overwhelm California, Obama Adviser Says 0515

Americans’ Exposure to Heat Extremes Could Rise 6-fold by Mid-Century 0515

Los Angeles Days over 95°F to Rise 5- to 7-fold from 1990 to 2050 - 0515

Warming Hiatus Will Not Stop Long-Term Global Climate Change 0415

Obama Tells Us What's to Come on Climate, Drought 0415

Rapid Global Warming to Return Soon - PDO Went Positive 0415

The Climate Is Starting to Change Faster 0315

Warming Could Hit Rates Unseen in 1,000 Years 0315

Heat in the Heartland - Climate Change and Economic Risk in the Midwest - Risky Business / Grayson 0115 - PDF, 58 pp
     See key excerpts, as maps etc., in the next section: Future after 2050.

Midwest Climate Future - Missouri Becomes Like Arizona and Chicago Like Texas 0115 -  summary of the above study

Climate Change Could Hammer Iowa Agriculture, Manufacturing 0115 - summary of the above study, Iowa-centric

Drought, Heat and Ice - 2015 Could Be Tipping Point on Climate 1214

Will Global Temps Soar When Trade Winds Weaken? 1214

Concern about Extremes, as Planet Gets Hotter and Colder 1214

Every Other Summer Will Be a Heat Wave in Eastern China 1014

Pacific Northwest Warming May Have Natural Roots 0914

No More Pause - Warming Will Be Non-Stop from Now On 0814

Global Warming Slowdown ‘Could Last Another Decade’ 0814

Louisville, Fastest-Warming City in U.S., Reaches for the Brakes 0814

To Slow Warming, No More ‘Business as Usual,' UN Warns 0414

Earth Will Cross the Climate Danger Threshold by 2036 - Mann 0314

Heat Waves in Eastern US Will Become Deadlier 1113

Tropics to Be 1st Region to Hit a New Climate Era 1013

Global Warming Will Increase Intensity of El Niño, Scientists Say 1013

Uncomfortable Climates to Devastate Cities Within a Decade 1013

Climate Could Warm Fastest in Last 65 Million Years 0813

Hansen Warns of "Runaway" Warming 0713

Temperature Could Rise 3°C by 2050 0312

US Heat Waves to Be Common by 2039 0312

IEA Says 5 Years to Avoid Dangerous Warming 1111

Albedo Effect of Retreating Arctic Sea Ice - Hudson 0811 - PDF    Albedo warming effect of complete Arctic Ocean ice loss is ~1/4 of the rise since 1750 from added GHGs.  ~15% of that ice albedo warming effect has already occurred.

Below is context for understanding projections of future warming.


     Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are needed to interpret the graphs below it.  RCPs are newer scenarios than the IPCC 
used in 2007 (A2, B1, etc.)
     
Caveat: these appear not to include positive feedback loops, especially carbon emissions from thawing permafrost.

   
Below: Fossil fuel carbon emission pathways for the CO2e levels above: IPCC 5 Fig. TS-19.

    The inset graph relates RCP emission paths to ppm CO2 in the air.

     Four RCP emission paths are shown: in billion tonnes (Pg) of carbon per year.
     In RCP 2.6, net world CO2 emissions from fossil fuels peak ~2020, at ~10% higher than today's.  They fall below zero ~2075.  In this case, CO
2 levels peak at ~450 ppm and fall to ~420 by 2100.  Relative to 1901-60, the US has already warmed 2°F.  We will warm 2°F more by ~2045, levelling off thereafter.
     In RCP 4.5, emissions peak ~2040, at 130% of today's, then fall to 60% of today's in 2080.  CO
2 levels rise to ~540 ppm.  The US warms 4°F more by 2100.

Heating - Future - after 2050

The above scenarios are by Dr. Fry, whose website this is.

Are We Ready for the Deadly Heat Waves of the Future? 0418

All of Europe’s 571 Cities Are Destined for Worse Heat Waves, Droughts, Floods 0218

PyeongChang Climate Extremes 0218

Heat Waves - Climate Change and Immigration 0218

Carbon Pollution Has Ended the Era of Stable Climate 0218

The Most Accurate Climate Models Predict the Most Alarming Consequences 1217

Will Northern California Soon Have Southern California's Climate? 1017

Deadly Heat Waves Becoming More Common, due to Climate Change 0817 - European Comm., take #1

Weather Disasters to Impact 2 out of 3 Europeans by 2100, Study Says 0817 - European Comm., take #2

How Extreme Could Temperatures Become in Texas? 0817

Climate Change to Cause Humid Heat Waves Killing Even Healthy People 0817 - MIT lead author, take #2

Warming to Boost Deadly Humidity Levels across South Asia 0817 - MIT lead author, take #1

Study Finds Only 5% Chance of Avoiding ‘Dangerous’ Global Warming 0717

California’s Economy Will Suffer Plenty from Climate Change.  At Least It’s Not Florida. 0717

This is How Climate Change Will Shift the World’s Cities 0717  See original URL for interactive map.
     A dozen world cities (none among 7 US cities) will become hotter than any place on Earth now.

Delhi Could Become as Hot as Sharjah by 2100 - 0717

Paris Climate Deal Won’t Save Us.  Our Future Depends on De-Growth. 0717

Meeting Paris Pledges Would Prevent at Least 1°C of Global Warming 0617

Humans Poised to Cause Earth’s Fastest Climate Change in 50 Million Years 0417 - take 1

The Climate Could Hit a State Unseen in 50 Million Years 0417 - CO2 levels could be highest since then.  Stop emitting!

Stark Warning on Atlantic Cooling 0217

New Evidence Confirms Risk That Mideast May Become Uninhabitable 0317

Climate Change Predicted to Transform Vancouver into San Diego, at Heavy Cost 0217

Arctic Sea Ice Melt Could Trigger Uncontrollable Climate Change Globally 1116

Climate Change May Be Escalating So Fast, It Could Be ‘Game Over’ 1116

U.S. Southwest Faces 99% Risk of 'Megadroughts' due to Climate Change 1016

Negative Emissions Key to Meeting 2°C Threshold 0716 - bio-energy with carbon capture and storage.  Just cutting emissions under the Paris agreement may not be enough to keep global warming from blasting past 2°C. - NCAR study

Forest Fires Can Heat Up the Whole Planet 0616 - They send carbon from peat and permafrost into the atmosphere.

The Temperature Spiral Has an Update - to 2100.  It’s Not Pretty. 0516

Crocodiles and Palm Trees in the Arctic?  New Report Suggests Yes. 0516 - Take 1 on study

Burning All Fossil Fuels Could Yield Global Warmth Not Seen in 65 Million Years 0516 - Take 2 on study

World Could Warm by Massive 10°C, if All Fossil Fuels Are Burned 0516 - Take 3 on study

Unusual Heat Waves in Africa Will Soon Be the Norm 0516 “Unusual" means record-breaking, hot & dry never seen before.

Warming Means Nicer U.S. Weather, But It Won’t Last 0416

Earth Is Warming 50 x Faster than When It Comes Out of an Ice Age 0216

Searing Heat Waves Could Become Annual Threat 0216

Warmer Seas Speed Up Antarctic Ice Melt 0216

Boulder Scientists Warn Planet Is Nearing Critical Warming Threshold 0216
      Ocean heat inertia guarantees 0.5°C more warming, even if CO2 stays no higher than 400 ppm.

Sea-Level Rise ‘Could Last Twice as Long as Human History’ 0216 - take 1

What the Earth Will Be Like in 10,000 years, according to Scientists 0216 - take 2

'If the World Ends in 2100, We’re Probably OK’ 0116 - It doesn’t so we’re not OK.
     Analog: 55 million years ago, +5-6°C over 4,000 years.  Long-term climate sensitivity exceeds 4.5°C for CO2 doubling.

Paris Climate Limit Will See Some Parts of World Warm by 6°C 0116

Global Warming Could Make Hajj Impossible Later This Century 1015

Intolerable, Unimaginable Heat Forecast for Persian Gulf 1015

Worst-Case Scenario for Sea Level Rise - No More New York, Berlin or Shanghai 0915

Climate Scientists Fear ‘Day After Tomorrow’ Scenario 0915

Concerns Deepen about a Climate-Change ‘Wild Card’ 0915

Vietnam Ready to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions 0815

Climate Change Could Give San Francisco the Climate of San Diego 0815

More Hot Summers Loom for Parts of UK 0715

How Fast Will Rising Temperatures Shrink the Earth's CO2 Storage Spots? 0615

The Deadly Combination of Heat and Humidity 0615

NASA’s Tons of Data Help Developing Nations Prepare for Global Warming 0615 - below, 45°C = 113°F.

RCP 8.5 (see 2 maps below) is the highest human emissions case; it may include a bit of permafrost carbon emissions.
     The Indian Ocean surface is mostly 80°F in this projection, but pockets of 90-100°F water surround Indonesia and Malaya.  Seas around Siciy and Greece also hit 90°F.  The Red Sea surface reaches 110°F.  Normal temperatures reach 100°F in much of the US and eastern China.

The Heat and Death Toll Are Rising in India.  Is This a Glimpse of Earth’s Future? 0515

Americans’ Exposure to Heat Extremes Could Rise 6-fold by Mid-Century 0515

Scientists Say Globe Could Warm 6°C by 2100, Call for Action Before Paris 0415

California Facing Extreme Heat Waves and Rising Seas 0415

The Climate Is Starting to Change Faster 0315

Warming Could Hit Rates Unseen in 1,000 Years 0315

With Heat and Humidity, Areas Will Become Unsuited for Outdoor Activity 0914

Warming Will Cut Human Work Capacity a Lot 0213

Earth, 2300 - Too Hot for Humans 0510

     Projected regional wet-bulb temperatures for an average global temperature increase of 12°C.
Human
cannot survive wet-bulb temepratures over 35°C. (Image from Steven C. Sherwood / Matthew Huberb)
    Most of the
eastern US, India, Australia, the Middle East, and central South America become uninhabitable.  Also Spain, China from Shanghai to Tianjin, Egypt, and west Africa.


from 2013 draft US National Climate Assessment (& Overviews page - see RCP paths there)


World Warming: from IPCC's 2007 Science Summary.  1°C (below) = 1.8°F (above).  Projected warming is faster in the US than the world as a whole.  Relative warming increases toward the poles (see below).  Observed warming was 0.2°C in 2000, relative to baseline.

-------------------

below: World Warming: from IPCC's 2013 Science Summary, relative to 2005, not 1951-80.

     So, add 0.6°C to get temperature change since 1951-80 baseline.  Note the high scenario (RCP8.5) temperature increase of 4.1°C from 2000 to 2100 in 2013 edition, compared to 3.4 (A2) in 2007 edition.

----------------------------------------------
World Warming by Location: from IPCC's 2013 Science Summary.
     The 2 maps below are similar, but not identical, to the draft US National Climate Assessment's maps on the Overviews page.  RCPs are summarized on the Overviews page.





     Temperature rise is greater toward the poles and over land.

     Dotted areas indicate high agreement among models.




   4°C surface warming worldwide translates to 10°F warming averaged across the US.  6-7°F in Florida, 7-8°F in the Southeast and coastal California, but 11°F in Iowa, Minnesota, the Dakotas, and Utah/Idaho.  Also 13°F over much of Alaska.








Study Predicts Global Warming Will See Australian Deserts Grow Bigger 0215

Climate Change Will Hit Australia Harder Than Rest of the World 0115



°C median projected changes in temperature for 2080-2099, relative to 1986-2005, for (a) summer, (b) autumn, (c) winter, and (d) spring under a modeling scenario that has littl reduction in demissions (RECP8.5).

Source: CSIRO









Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains - Cook 0215 PDF
        excerpt on Overviews page.

US 'at Risk of Mega-Drought Future’ 0215 - summary of above study

Heat in the Heartland - Climate Change and Economic Risk in the Midwest - Risky Business / Grayson 0115 - PDF, 58 pp

    Days above 95°F will roughly triple. (See Figure 1, partly excerpted below.)  This includes 75-100 such days a year for southern Illinois (Carbondale, Cairo, Vincennes, plus Decauter) and more than half of Missouri (St. Louis, Cape Girardeau, Joplin, Sedalia, Rolla, Poplar Bluff, Hannibal, etc.)  It also includes Evansville IN, plus slivers of Ohio between Portsmouth and Marietta and Iowa north of Hannibal.  75-100 days a year above 95°F is almost as hot as Las Vegas (99-114, 2012-14).
     The Midwest in particular will experience rising temperatures, in terms of warmer winters more than unbearable summers. But by the end of the century, the average Midwesterner will likely see 22 to 77 days per year over 95°F, compared to only 3, on average, over the past 30 years. 

      

     There is a 5% (or more) chance that 125-150 days a year will exceed 95°F in much the same area (plus Terre Haute and Jasper IN and Effingham IL, but minus Hannibal and Sedalia MO).  See the rest of Figure 1 in the report for the 5% tail.

     These compare to 114 days above 95°F for Las Vegas in 2014, 95 such days in 2013, and 115 in 2012.  The southern Midwest can become hotter than Las Vegas by the end of the century (or a little later), if current emission trends continue.

Heat in the Heartland - Exec Summary 0115 - PDF, summary of the above study

Heat in the Heartland - General Regional Summary 0115 - PDF, a piece of the above study

Heat Stroke Index (Wet Bulb Temperatures)           .

     Below, based on current emission trends (maps from Figure 3 in the report), summers in Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana grow hotter by 2100 than Texas and Arizona ones today.  Iowa and Ohio ones grow as hot as Texas ones now.  Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin summers grow almost as hot.

     At right mostly above (from Figure 4 in the report), heat stroke days will increase dramatically by the end of the century, from none now.  Most of Missouri, Illinois and Indiana would suffer 40-60 days a year of dangerous heat: as bad (hot and humid) as anywhere in Texas.  Ohio and Iowa would see 30-50 such days a year.
     Worse, all of Illinois - and most of Missouri, Iowa, and Indiana - would experience 10-25 days a year of extremely dangerous heat: hotter (wet bulb) than anywhere in Texas.
     In fact, “On our current path, the Midwest will likely see an average of as many as 3 days per year of Category IV conditions, which have never been experienced in the U.S. to date.

Heat in the Heartland - Agriculture Impacts 0115 - PDF, a piece of the above study.  Highlights are below.

     Agriculture will be harmed in a major way.  Crop losses of 40-64% by 2100 are likely for corn in the Corn Belt and 8-38% by 2100 for soybeans in the same states (IA, IL, IN, OH, MO).  The Corn Belt will have moved into Canada, North Dakota, and NW Minnesota.  See maps and table below.  In most of Missouri and Illinois, plus about half of Iowa and Indiana, crops losses are 25-50%, and worse in a few places.  Wheat is much less affected, as it is often grown in the colder months and harvested by June.

Midwest Climate Future - Missouri Becomes Like Arizona and Chicago Like Texas 0115 -  summary of the above study

Climate Change Could Hammer Iowa Agriculture, Manufacturing 0115 - summary of the above study, Iowa-centric

Capping Warming at 2°C Not Enough to Avert Disaster, Experts Warn 1114

Australia's Dry South to Become Even Drier 0714

IPCC Warns of ‘Devastating Rise of 4-5°C If We Carry on as We Are’ 0414

Long-Term Warming Likely to Be Significant Despite Recent Slowdown 0314

Climate Could Warm Fastest in Last 65 Million Years 0813

Earth, 2100 AD: 4 Futures of Environment and Society 1013

Global Warming Could Kill Thousands of Australians - IPCC 1013

Hansen Warns of "Runaway" Warming 0713

Waiting on New Climate Deal Leads to 5°C Warming 0613 

Venus Syndrome - Hansen 0413 - PDF

On Target for 5°C Warming by 2100 1212 

Warming Track to 5°C by 2100 1212 - PDF 

World Bank Fears Devastating 4°C Warming 1112 

On Track for 6°C Warming 0412 

Global Warming Close to Becoming Irreversible 0312 

Carbon Emissions to Defer Ice Age 0112 

Warming Could Exceed 2°C in This Lifetime 1011

Earth, 2300 - Too Hot for Humans 0510 - see above

World Could Heat Up 4°C in 50 Years 1109 

Earth Due to Warm 6°C 1109

UN Says 6°F Rise by 2100 Likely 1009 

Unchecked, +7°C by 2100 - MIT 0509

∆T to 2100, % Odds - MIT 0509 - PDF

4°C+ May Be Inevitable 0808 

Heating - Misc.  

Research Nixes Link between Solar Activity, Climate Change 0815

Grand Solar Minimum Would Barely Dent Human-Caused Global Warming 0715

IPCC Global Warming Projections Have Done Much Better Than You Think 1013

Climate Report - How the Science Has Moved On 0913

Quiet Sun Changes Regional Jet Stream Flows, Cooling Europe 0410

Global Warming Immune to Drop in Solar Radiance 0310 

Soot Does 18% of Warming 0409

Sudden Methane Rise in 2007 Puzzles Scientists 1008 

Hansen 2006 Lecture 0206 - PDF

Knutson Temp Trend 0905 - PDF 

Solar Warming Limits 0503 - PDF


Clouds

Thinning Clouds Increase California’s Wildfires 0618

Study Reveals Forests Have Yet Another Climate-Protection Superpower 0118

Clouds Aren’t a Climate Thermostat, Won’t Save Us from Global Warming 1217

Clearing Clouds of Uncertainty - Zelinka 1017 - PDF, original scientific paper, 2 of 3 figures omitted.  See just below.

     Below, big dots are for central estimates, thick bars for standard deviations, thin bars for range, among 18 models.

 2012 edition

               1980                                     1990                                    2000                                     2010

2015 edition

The Surprising Effect of Ocean Waves on Global Climate 0817

Scientists Dim Sunlight, Suck Up CO2 to Cool Planet 0717

Global Warming Tidings Get a Boost, after Cloudy Climate Issue Cleared Up 0716 - take 1 on study

The World’s Clouds Are in Different Places than They Were 30 Years Ago 0716 - take 2 on study

The table at right summarizes the map above.

Ocean Warming due to Plankton Collapse 0616

Findings from Making Own Clouds Require Rethink on Speed of Warming 0516

Clouds Play Lesser Role in Curbing Warming, Study Finds 0416

Clearing Up Dust's Effect on Climate 1215

Man-Made Pollutants Increase the Cooling Effect of Saharan Dust 0415

Changes in Water Vapor and Clouds Are Amplifying Global Warming 0415

Cosmic Rays Add Little to Climate Change 1113

Pollution Yields Larger, Deeper, Longer-Lived Clouds, So Colder Days, Warmer Nights 1113

Clouds of (Slightly Less) Unknowing 1013

Ocean Acidification Makes Plankton Emit Less Cloud-Seeding Compounds 0813

Researchers Unmask Climate Secrets of Sea Spray and Clouds 0413 

Bacteria Survive at High Altitudes, Seed Clouds 0113 

Skeptic Torch Lights Way to New Science on Clouds 1212 

Clouds Feedback Amplifies Warming 0809 

Clouds Amplify Warming, Summary 0709 

Positive Feedback from Low Level Clouds - Clement, Science 0709 

More High Clouds Warmed Earth, 2000-04 0106

Cosmic Rays, Temp & CO2 Lags 0105 

Cosmic Rays & Clouds - Marsh & Svensmark 0500 - PDF - broadly similar to, and precursor to, Tim Patterson's article and graphs above


Sulfates (& Black Carbon)

 Below is the best-fit prediction of temperatures, based on the 2 top GHGs, CO2 and CH4, and the top sunscreen, SO4.

     T-ratios are 9.72, 11.61 and -11.38 respectively for LN(CO2), LN(CH4) and SO4 (lagged 1)

Below at right is Figure 8.2 (in part) from the IPCC 5th Assessment, WGI.

Tg = million tonnes


How Air Pollution Has Put a Brake on Global Warming 0318 - 0.5 to 1.1°C, according to Samset et al. (take 2, take 1 below)

Why Aerosols Pose a Deadly Climate Change Threat 0218 - Sulfate aerosols have masked up to 1/2 of warming to date.

Overlooked Tiny Air Pollutants Can Have Major Climate Impact 0118

Cleaning Up Air Pollution May Strengthen Global Warming 0118

India to Introduce Clean Fuels Faster to Combat Delhi Smog Crisis 1117 - Cut sulfur in diesel and gasoline by 80%.

How Air Pollution Is Causing the World’s ‘3rd Pole’ to Melt 0816

Sulfate Aerosols Implicated in Global Warming Slowdown 0616

How Cleaner Air Could Actually Make Global Warming Worse 0316

Why the Sahel Rains Failed – and Why They May Return 0116 - sulfate pollution over the Atlantic dampened evaporation

Meeting a Global Carbon Limit Is Cheaper Than Avoiding One - Mann 1115

Massive Wildfires by Lake Baikal Send Soot to Arctic, Greenland 0815

Man-Made Pollutants Increase the Cooling Effect of Saharan Dust 0415

Humans Polluted the Air long Before Industrial Revolution, Study Finds 0215

Mysteries in Fire and Ice 1214

Yak Dung Is Making Climate Change Worse 1214

Small Volcanoes May Be Slowing Down Global Warming 1114

Cooker Reduces Black Carbon Problem 0913 - also on Energy Use page, under Other

What’s the Role of Sulfate Aerosols in Climate Change? 0913

Oil and Gas Production Drives Arctic Ice Melt 0913

How Soot Killed the Little Ice Age 0913

Volcanic Eruptions by Size, to 27 Mya - Wikipedia

Aerosol Cooling Effect on Climate May Be Overstated 0513 

Plant Particles Slow Global Warming 0413

Volcanic Activity Linked to recent Dip in Global Warming 0313 

Faustian Bargain & Aerosols - Hansen 0313 - PDF 

Volcanic Origin for Little Ice Age 0112 

Pollution Cools, Worsens South Asia Smog 0112 

Rising Air Pollution Worsens Drought and Flooding 1111 

Small Volcanoes Cool Climate 0711

Asian Emissions Have Masked Recent Warming 0711

Iceland Eruption to Cool Earth Short Term 0410 

Aerosols Cloud Climate Picture 1009 

Sulfate Aerosol Increases & China 0809

Giant Asian Smog Cloud Masks Warming 1108 

Temps, CO2, SO4, Sun Analysis 2006 - XLS

Temps, CO2, SO4, Sun Analysis 2006 - XLSX

IPCC Sulfate & GHG Levels 2002 - JPG - shown immediately below

IPCC Sulfates & GHG Levels 2002 - PDF


Sensitivity & Speed

Global Warming Predictions May Now Be a Lot Less Uncertain 0118

Reconciling Fast and Slow Climate Warming Modes with the Historical Record 0717

How the World Passed a Carbon Threshold and Why It Matters 0117

2 Million Year Record Indicates 5°C Warming from 400 ppm CO2, 9° from 560 ppm 0916

Climate May Be More Sensitive and Situation More Dire 0716

U.N. Panel to Study Tough 1.5°C Limit on Global Warming 0416

Earth Is Warming 50 x Faster than When It Comes Out of an Ice Age 0216

Sea-Level Rise ‘Could Last Twice as Long as Human History’ 0216 - take 1

What the Earth Will Be Like in 10,000 years, according to Scientists 0216 - take 2

The Mystery of the Expanding Tropics 0216 - Why are they AND sub-tropics spreading far faster than models predict?

Why Climate Scientists Are Right About How Hot Earth Will Get 0215

Ancient Climate Records ‘Back Predictions’ of Much Warmer from Current CO2 Levels 0215

Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level & Atmospheric CO2 - Hansen 0913 - PDF, 32 pp

Key sea level graphs are on Overviews page.

Not Long to Wait Till Released CO2 Turns Up Temperature 1214

Prehistoric Proof of Climate's See-Saw Sensitivity 0814

Ocean Chemical Cycles Will Be Upset by Climate Change 0913

Tropical Ocean Key to Global Warming Hiatus 0813

Temperature Sensitivity to Doubled CO2 0513 

Doubled CO2 Sensitivity Estimates 0313 

Making Sense of Palaeoclimate Sensitivity- Hansen 1112 - PDF - also above (Paleo) and on Water page.  It has climate sensitivity estimates from 38 pale-climate studies.  Hansen "discards" 11 of the 38.

Below, Hansen draws Figure a from 800 K years, like Figure c (earlier, also by Hansen).  Figure b is drawn from the last 20 M years, according to van der Wal.  Figure d melds all 3.  Slow feedbacks include albedo (reflectivity) changes due to changes in vegetation and extent of ice sheets, as well as plate tectonics, weathering, and some aspects of the carbon cycle.  Fast feedbacks include cloud coverage, snow extent, sea ice, upper ocean heating, carbon emissions from permafrost and methane hydrates, and most aspects of dust and aerosol changes.

      Figure b indicates eventual warming of 5-6°C from today's CO2 levels (and 10°C with CO2 double 1750 levels), but only as much as we have already observed from fast feedbacks alone.

Most Accurate GCMs Show 8°F Warmer by 2100 1112 

Global Warming Close to Becoming Irreversible 0312 

Earth's Energy Imbalance - Hansen 1211 - PDF

CO2, Air Temps & Sea Levels Levels Over Past 20 Million Years - van der Wal 0211 - PDF

IPCC Understates Case for Man-Made Warming 0310

Climate Changing Far Faster Than Projected 1109 

Climate Sensitivty Over 15 MY - Tripati 1009 - PDF

Climate Change Outpaces Estimates 0209 

Too Late to Avoid Big Warming 0907

Misc.

Scientists Say the Ozone Layer Is Recovering 0914

Smell of Forest Pine Can Limit Climate Change 0214

Solar Variability Has Only a Small Effect on Climate Change 1213

Sun's Quiet Spell Not the Start of a Mini Ice Age 0713

Precipitation Change in Human vs Natural Warming 0113 

Diatoms Linked to More Storms Recently 0611 

Colder Winters? 1110 

CO2 Effects on Plants Increases Global Warming 0510 

NASA Study Debunks Global Cooling 0310 

IPCC Errors Trigger Push for Reform 0210

Atmospheric Dry Spell Eases Global Warming 0110


by Gene Fry 2018