Water

     Below are files - articles mostly - about water, arranged in 6 major groups: Oceans, Groundwater, Hurricanes, Lakes, Rivers, and Air.  Articles about ice occupy a separate page.

     Before the library of articles is introductory material - (1) biologically active areas of the ocean, (2) fresh water USE, (3) historically "recent" precipitation, and projected future precipitation (4) worldwide and (5) for the USA. 

     Month and year follow each article's name.  PDF files are so marked, after month and date, some with authors noted.  Within sections, more recent files appear above older files.

     Photosynthesis in algae (plankton) is the foundation of the ocean's food web and the source of much of our air's oxygen.  Below are maps with some estimates of how much oceanic chlorophyll is where.
     In the 1st map, blue is the lowest concentration, red the highest.  The 2nd & 3rd (black & white) maps show concentrations averaged over 1978-86, in mg of chlorophyll per cubic meter of seawater for the Pacific Ocean.  The left map is for summer (JJA in North, DJF in South), the right one for winter.

from www.eeb.ucla.edu/test/faculty/nezlin/PrimaryProduction.htm

     Note the Pacific's biological deserts at low latitudes, especially in summer, and the high productivity along the northern coasts.  The color graph above shows a similar story for the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, except off the coasts of Argentina, western south Africa, Arabia, Indonesia, and New Guinea.  In the top map, note the hotspots at the mouths of the Amazon, Paraná, Congo, St. Lawrence, Danube, Yellow, Amur, and Yukon Rivers.

     To summarize, biological activity in the ocean is highest (1) in cold water, (2) near coasts, and (3) near river mouths.

Water Resources Fact Sheet 0714

                            US Fresh Water Use                                includes surface & underground water.

from draft 2013 US National Climate Assessment.
     From this graph, total US use in 2005 was ~445 GigaTonnes (445 cu km).  Consumptive use was ~132.  That's ~1,500 cubic meters per person per year (1,125 gallons per person per day).

     Of that, household hot water use was 20-25 gallons per person and household cold water use a bit more.
     The big users were agriculure and cooling power plants fired by coal, gas, and uranium.  T
hermal power plants accounted for 41% of fresh water use, while agriculture acounted for 40% (37% for irrigation).  Industry and mining accounted for 6%.  (Thermal power plants also used 58 billion gallons per day of salt water for cooling, 40% as much as the fresh water they used.)

Why Climate Change Matters - Water 0516

California Water Conservation Saved Energy, Cut Greenhouse Gases 0616

Humans Are Using Up Far More of Earth’s Water than Previously Thought 1215

Acid Ocean - Hot & Breathless - UNESCO 1113 - PDF, 26 pp

Global Majority Faces Water Shortages within 2 Generations 0513

World Faces Water Crisis, as Global Warming Upsets Delicate Balance 0306


Recent Precipitation

Precipitation Trends, 1950-2008 (from Dai) 

Precip over Land 1961-2012

5,000-Mile-Long River in the Sky Brings Heavy Rain & Snow to Pacific Northwest 1017

Houston Fears Catastrophic Flooding from Climate Change - 'It's Not If, It's When.’ 0617

Extreme Precipitation Events Have Risen Sharply in Northeast U.S. Since 1996 - 0517

Rising Waters Threaten China’s Rising Cities 0417

Global Warming Is Increasing Rainfall Rates 0317

California Levee System Battered by Record Rainfall from 'Atmospheric River' 0217

Louisiana Flood of 2016 Resulted from '1,000-Year' Rain in 2 Days 0816

Climate Change Warming Asian Waters, Altering Monsoon 0716

Flooding In Europe.  Texas Suffers 500-Year Flood for 2nd Year in a Row. 0616

Sierra Nevada Snow Won’t End California’s Thirst 0416

Meltdown - More Rain, Less Snow as the World Warms 0416

Yukon to Feel Impacts of Climate Change 0216

Downpours over Land Have Slowed Sea Level Rise 0216

December 2015 Was the Wettest Month Ever Recorded in UK 0116 - also hottest.  Full year was 2nd hottest, 6th wettest.

Floods of Biblical Proportions Leave British Cities and Villages under Water 1215

What Historic South Carolina Floods Can, & Can’t, Tell Us about Climate Change 1015

Heavier Rains Mean More Toxic Blooms for Lake Erie 0715

Torrential Rains Increasing in Warming World 0715

Warming Indian Ocean Weakens India’s Monsoon 0615        10-20% from 1901 to 2012, from the south of Pakistan
     to Bangladesh, especially in central India: the Ganges-Brahmaputra basins & Himalayan foothills

Flooding Risk Rises with Global Warming 0615

Rhode Island’s Annual Precipitation Rose by a Foot in 100 Years 0515

Tropical Rainfall on the Rise, as Big Storm Events Increase 0315

Climate Change in Minnesota - More Heat, More Big Storms 0215

Higher Pacific Temperatures Bring Monsoons to Southland 0814

How Australia's Big Wet Befuddled Scientists 0813

Rain - Sign of the Times in Philadelphia? 0613

Record Rain in Argentina Is Sign of Things to Come 0413

Heavier Rainfall in Midwest from Warming 0313

Intense Rains in US Midwest Doubled Since 1960 - 0512

Earth's Water Cycle is Changing Rapidly 1010

When It Rains, It Pours 1207 - PDF, 48 pp

Future Precipitation

 (from US National Climate Assessment)               World             (from US National Climate Assessment)
2071-2099 Average, Less 1971-2000 Average - for 2 RCPs

Wet Gets Wetter, Dry Gets Drier

     Also, areas toward the poles get wetter, as water and ice there warm, increasing evaporation.

Future World Precipitation ∆

also High Emissions Pathway
(Cross-hatching means high agreement among the models used.)

Why Fresh Water Shortages Will Cause the Next Great Global Crisis 0315

Tropical Deforestation Could Disrupt Rainfall Globally 1214

Intense Thunderstorms More Likely to Batter a Warming World 0613

Earth's Water Cycle is Changing Rapidly 1010

US

High Emission Pathway (RCP 8.5)

     The Figures below, about US precipitation observed, are from the draft 2013 US National Climate Assessment.

% change for 1991-2011 average, compared to 1901-60 average






These are changes in the amount of precipitation falling in very heavy events (the heaviest 1% of all daily events) from 1958 to 2011 for each region.






     The 4 seasonal maps just below are for a high emissions case.  The 4 farther below are for a low emissions case. 

Future US Precip ∆ by Season, Low Emit RCP 2.6

Rising Seas, Storm Surge, Rain Raise Severe Flooding Risk in Biggest US Cities 0715

Across the U.S., Heaviest Downpours on the Rise 0515

Rhode Island’s Annual Precipitation Rose by a Foot in 100 Years 0515

Sierra Nevada Snowpack Hits Historic Low 0315

Climate Change in Minnesota - More Heat, More Big Storms 0215

Higher Pacific Temperatures Bring Monsoons to Southland 0814

Rain - Sign of the Times in Philadelphia? 0613

Megastorms Could Drown Much of California (More Often) 1112

Hawaii Will Get Less Rain Due To Global Warming 0413

Earth's Water Cycle is Changing Rapidly 1010

US 20-Year Rain & Heat Events to Become 8- & 3-Year Events 0608

When It Rains, It Pours 1207 - PDF, 48 pp

Oceans - Heat Gain

'Concerning'- Marine Heat Waves Increasing, Especially near Australia 0418

Oceans Are Warming Rapidly, New Study Confirms 0617

Climate Change Is Literally Turning the Arctic Ocean Upside Down 0417 - warm salty water below, fresh icy water above

The Arctic Is Warm Again Because of Course It Is 0317

Open Water near North Pole Is a Sign of a Rapidly Warming Arctic 0916

Soaring Ocean Temperature Is ‘Greatest Hidden Challenge of Our Generation' 0916

Southern Ocean Is Getting Less Salty.  What That Means for the Rest of Earth 0816

The Blob - How Marine Heat Waves Are Causing Unprecedented Climate Chaos 0816

The Biggest Body of Warm Water on Earth Is Getting Even Bigger 0716

Warmer Indian Ocean Could Be 'Ecological Desert', Scientists Warn 0116

The Oceans Are Heating Up Faster than We Thought.  Why That Matters. 0116

Concerns Deepen about a Climate-Change ‘Wild Card’ 0915

Global Warming Is Reversing 1,800 Years of Natural Ocean Cooling 0815

Heat is Piling Up in the Depths of the Indian Ocean 0515

Going with the Flow - Scientists Probe Changes in the East Australian Current 0515

The Gulf Stream System May Already Be Weakening.  That's Not Good. 0315

Deep Mystery - Are the Seas Warming or Cooling? 1014 - As the 2 scientific studies (Durack and JPL), also summarized in the 3 perspectives below, state - for ocean warming below 2,000 meters deep, the warming signal did not rise above the noise.  But for ocean above 2,000 meters, the warming was very substantial.  In fact, it found more warming there (1/4 to 1/2) than previous recent studies did - with the difference concentrated in the Southern hemisphere.

     This means we have seriously underestimated the amount of warming that has occurred in recent years.

Ocean Warming Understimated - 3 Perspectives 1014

Greenland Sea Has Warmed 10 x Faster Than Global Ocean 1113

Global Ocean Heat Content - WEB

Global Ocean Heat Content 0413 - PDF

West Australian Coastal Waters Gripped by Marine Heat Wave 1212

Ocean Heat Gain Since 1993 (summary #1) 0510

Ocean Warming 1993-2008 (summary #2) 0510

Oceans Warmed 50% Faster Than Expected 0608

Warming Deep Seas 0606 - PPT

Ocean Warming - Levitus 0105 - PDF


Oceans  - Sea Level Rise - Past

     Sea level has varied greatly over the course of geological history, from perhaps 400 feet higher than today to ~ 420 feet lower than today.  (Levels far higher than today, very long ago, were augmented by different vertical distribution of land mass, due to many-million year plate tectonic movements.)   Sea level since 35 million years ago has been no more than 240 feet higher than today, but sea level was 400 feet lower than today as recently as 20,000 years ago.

     Worldwide, sea level has risen perhaps 1 inch per century in the last 3,000 years, but perhaps 2 inches per century in the 3,000 years before that.  Local sea level rise varies modestly from the global average - depending on land subsidence, any glacial rebound, and uplift from tectonic plate movements.  Global sea level rose 8 inches during the 20th century.
     In 2011 sea level rise was 13 inches per century.  About 1/2 of that is due to thermal expansion of warmer water.  Melting ice in Greenland and Antarctia contributes almost ~1/4.  ~1/4 comes from glaciers in Asia, North America, Europe, and elsewhere.  ~1/20 comes from mined groundwater.

     From 15,000 to 8,000 years ago, seas rose 1.5 meters (5 feet) per century, 4.5 times today's rate, including 4 meters (14 feet) per century for one 700-year period.  

     Over the past half million years, as shown below, sea level changes have followed changes in atmospheric CO2 (and CH4) pretty closely.  The difference between minima and maxima was just over 100 meters, or 340 feet, perhaps even 400.

Sea Level, CO2, CH4, Aerosol, Albedo 800 KY

During Meltwater Pulse 1A, sea level rose 4+ meters per century, for 7 centuries.

Ancient Storms Could Have Hurled Huge Boulders, Scientists Say – Raising New Fears of Rising Seas 1017

Study Suggests the Ocean Could Rise More, and Faster, than We Thought 1017

Sea Level Rise Is Accelerating in Florida, Scientists Warn 0717

Sea Level Rise Is Accelerating, with Greenland in Leading Role 0617

Pace of Sea Level Rise Has Nearly Tripled since 1990 - 0517 - Pace had been overestimated for 20th century.

China Blames Climate Change for Record Sea Levels 0317

Ancient Warm Period Hints at Bigger-than-Expected Sea Level Rise 0117
     6 to 9 meters higher than today, at same temperature as today, 125,000 years ago

Antarctic Past Points to Sea Level Threat 0117 - 3 meter rise 14,700 years ago

Methane May Not Last Long in the Air, but It Drives Sea Level Rise for Centuries 0117 - as does CO2

Volcanic Eruptions Masked True Effects of Climate Change on Sea Levels 0816

Better Models of Antarctic Ice Collapse Show Much Faster Sea Level Rise 0416

'Dire Prediction' on Melting Antarctic Ice Sheets and Rising Sea Levels 0416

Climate Forecasts Underestimate Sea-Level-Rise Impact of Antarctic Thaw 0316

Ice Melt Could Make Seas Rise 6 Feet by 2100 - 0316

James Hansen Warns of Much Worse than Expected Sea Level Rise 0316

Sea Level Rise?  Can We Pump Quadrillions of Tons of Seawater 2 Miles High? 0316

Preparing for the Inevitable Sea-Level Rise 0216

20th Century Sea Level Rise Was Fastest in at Least Last 2,700 Years 0216

Downpours over Land Have Slowed Sea Level Rise 0216

Groundwater Depletion Adding to Global Sea-Level Rise 1215

Rising Sea Levels More Dangerous than Thought - NASA 0815 rising faster / sooner than IPCC said

A New Climate-Change Danger Zone? 0715 - ice loss doubling, + slow down & stop ocean circulation

James Hansen Is Getting the Cold Shoulder 0715 - reaction to Hansen study

Prediction of Rapid Sea Level Rise Won’t Change Global Climate Talks 0715 - impact of Hansen study

James Hansen Just Outlined an Alarming Scenario for Our Planet’s Future 0715 - ice loss keeps doubling for years

Ice melt, sea level rise & superstorms - paleoclimate data, climate modeling & modern observations show 2°C global warming is highly dangerous - Hansen et al. 0715 PDF, 121 pp - multi-meter sea level rise, etc. by 2100 to 2200

Sea Levels Could Rise At Least 20 Feet 0715 - take 1 on study of sea level rise 3, 0.4 and 0.12 million years ago.
     not Hansen

Why Earth’s Past Has Scientists So Worried about Sea Level Rise 0715 - take 2.  Action in Greenland & Antarctica

Sea-Level Rise Accelerating, as Earth's Ice Sheets Melt  0515

Obama’s Trip to Florida Everglades Is a Shrewd Move in Climate Debate 0415

Antarctica's Retreating Ice May Re-Shape Earth 0215

Sea Levels in Northeast Jumped 5 Inches in Just 2 Years 0215

Acceleration in Sea-Level Rise ‘Steeper’ 0115

Sea Level Rise over Past Century Unmatched in 6,000 Years 1014

Note: Atlantic Ocean relative to North Carolina only.  North Carolina coast may have subsided.

             1980                       1990                          2000                         2010

Sea Level - Future

     At first glance, sea level might rise 65-89 meters (214-293 feet).  61-81 meters come from melting ice: 5-7.5 from Greenland and 3.3-6 from West Antarctica, ~0.5 meters from "mountain" glaciers, and 52-67 from East Antarctica.  (While Wikipedia estimates that Antarctic ice has 70 meters of sea level rise equivalent (SLRE) in water, the USGS in 2013 cut its estimate from 73 to 55.3 meters SLRE, according to Phil Blum at www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2013/11/map-sea-level-rise-probably-wrong-its-too-optimistic/71246/?goback=%2Egde_119460_member_5803866787263037442#%21.

     4-8 meters comes from sea water's thermal expansion.  Warming the world ocean by 5°C would raise sea level perhaps 4 meters, while 10°C (which prevailed 130-40 million years ago) would raise it 8 meters.  Warming the entire ocean by 5°C would take ~ 2,500 years, at the current heating and expansion rate of 1.6 mm/year.  But it would take less as heating speeds up, with more CO2 in the air.

     Based on past sea levels over 60 million years, the upper bound on sea level rise is ~75 meters.  Almost enough to make Memphis a seaport.  Burlington and Brattleboro, in Vermont, might become seaports.  98% of New York City would lie beneath the waves.

     The life expectancy for Greenland's ice, based on 1992-2011 ice loss rates, is ~11,000 years.  For West Antarctica, ~29,000 years.  Ice loss rates have continued accelerating.  (Greenland's rate recently rose 7-fold in 17 years, Antarctica’s doubled in 4.)

     Until about 2010, East Antarctica was gaining ice, but more slowly than West Antarctica is losing ice.  More recent data suggest East Antarctica (on the whole, some areas gain, others lose) is losing ice, but the amount is smaller than the uncertainty band.  That is, its % net annual volume change is modest compared to the “noise”.  Modeling suggests that melting all of East Antarctica's ice could take several million years.  But studies of East Antarctic glaciers show that, in recent decades, they receded when temperatures there warmed (Stokes 2013).  Morever, when atmospheric CO2 levels were this high (almost 400 ppm) 4 million years ago (and slightly higher 15-20 million years ago), much higher sea levels indicate that East Antarctica lost 10-40% of its ice (6 to 23 meters of SLRE).  The question is how FAST its ice melts.

     Past sea level rise rates from melting ice peaked at 4 meters per century 14-15,000 years ago (during Meltwater Pulse 1A), or 1+ inch per year.  Temperatures now are rising 30 time as fast as then, but only 1/3 as much ice is left.  It remains to be seen how fast sea level will rise this time.  But sea level rise will accelerate from current levels.  1 inch/year is a reasonable, if high, estimate by 2100: just below the 1.1 inch/year upper bound for 2050-2100 in the draft 2013 US National Climate Assessment (next graph).

     Sea level might rise 5 feet (60 inches) or more by 2100, but less still seems more likely.  See city sea level rise maps below.  A 12-foot rise might well happen by 2200.  A 25-foot rise appears unlikely till after 2300.  The dates depend on our emissions and Mother Nature's, plus our success in removing carbon from the air (with some help from Mother Nature).  Our knowledge about the dates also depends on how well we understand ice loss dynamics from Greenland and Antarctica.  We are learning that our models have underestimated some rates and failed to acount for, or inadequately accounted for, some ice dynamics.  (See Ice Dynamics section on Ice page.)

Sea Level Rise to 2100

Geo-Engineer Polar Glaciers to Slow Sea-Level Rise 0318

Actions Today Will Decide Antarctic Ice Sheet Loss and Sea Level Rise 0318

Seas to Rise about 1 Meter, if Climate Goals Are Met, + 20 cm per 5-Year Delay 0218

Sea Level Rise Is Accelerating - 4 Inches Per Decade (or More) by 2100 - 0218

Major Trend of More Snowfall Seen in Antarctica Could Counter Sea Level Rise 0118

Seas May Rise 8 Feet by 2100, Inundating Land That's Home to 236 Million 1217 below, 1250 cm = about 41 feet, while 130 cm = a bit over 4 feet.

Ice Apocalypse 1117 - summary by a leading ice scientist

Study Suggests the Ocean Could Rise More, and Faster, than We Thought 1017

Sea Level Rise Is Accelerating in Florida, Scientists Warn 0717

Rare US Floods to Become the Norm if Emissions Aren't Cut 0617

Scientists Keep Increasing Projections of Sea-Level Increase by 2100 - 0417

Sea Level Rise Could Send U.S. ‘Climate Migrants' Fleeing to Austin, Atlanta 0417

Final Obama Climate Reports Projects Seas to Rise 1 to 8 Feet by 2100 - 0117

New Orleans Will See One of the Highest Sea Level Rises in the World 1116

What It Means for Sea Level When 2 Huge Antarctic Glaciers Are Unstable 1016

Scientists May Have Solved Key Riddle about Antarctica.  It’s Bad News. 0916 - another DeConto-Pollard study

Better Models of Antarctic Ice Collapse Show Much Faster Sea Level Rise 0416 - includes take 3 on DeConto study.

'Dire Prediction' on Melting Antarctic Ice Sheets and Rising Sea Levels 0416 - take 3 on DeConto-Pollard study.

Ice Melt Could Make Seas Rise 6 Feet by 2100 - 0316 - take 1 on DeConto-Pollard study.  40+ feet by 2500 possible

Climate Forecasts Underestimate Sea-Level-Rise Impact of Antarctic Thaw 0316 - take 2.  50+ feet by 2500 possible

James Hansen Warns of Much Worse than Expected Sea Level Rise 0316 - take 2 on study below

We Had All Better Hope These Scientists Are Wrong about Earth’s Future 0316 - take 1 on study below

Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 2°C Global Warming is Dangerous - Hansen et al. 0316  - PDF, 20 pp. - abridgement of the final peer-reviewed publication.  The draft from July 2015 is above, under Sea Level Rise - Past, which informs the projected future, below.
     Cold icemelt from Antarctica spreads out along the ocean surface.  That prevents the vertical mixing (warmer water to the top) there that has driven the great ocean circulation.  In Antarctica, the warmer water below the ice eats away at placiers from underneath.  Cold icemelt from Greenland leads to shutdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation.
     Ice losses from Greenland and Antartica grow, modelled as exponentially, with doubling times of 10, 20, or 40 years.  Sea level rises non-linearly, 5-9 meters over 50 to 150 years.  This is simlar to what happened 120,000 years ago, when sea levels rose from 3-4 meters higher than today to about 9 meters higher, including 2-3 meters within several decades.  (For perspective, the sea level range (maximum - minimum) over the recent ice ages was about 125 meters.)

Preparing for the Inevitable Sea-Level Rise 0216

Sea-Level Rise ‘Could Last Twice as Long as Human History' 0216

Weakening Ice Shelves Raise Sea Level Rise Concerns 0216

Why the U.S. East Coast Could Be a Major ‘Hotspot’ for Rising Seas 0216

Ocean Warming is Making Floods Worse 0116

Hansen 2015 Ice Melt Predictions - PDF

Worst-Case Scenario for Sea Level Rise- No More New York, Berlin or Shanghai 0915

Climate Change and the Fate of Antarctica 0915

Study Predicts All Antarctic Ice to Melt if All Fossil Fuels Are Burned 0915

Seas Will Rise More Around the US, Less Around Antarctica 0115

Pakistan's Coastal Villagers Retreat as Seas Gobble Land 0115

Almost 7,000 UK Properties to Be Sacrificed to Rising Seas 1214

What's Causing How Much of Sea Level Rise 1014

Storm Surge Could Flood NYC 1 in Every 4 Years 0414

How High Will Seas Rise?  Ask the Experts. 1113

Timing a Rise in Sea Level 0813

Sea Level Rise Locking In Quickly, Cities Threatened 0713 

Models Suggest 2.3 Meter (4 LT) Sea-Level Rise per 1°C Warming 0713 (See Figures on Weather, Sea Rise+ page.)  Caveat: paleoclimate studies indicate ~8 meters sea level rise LT per 1°C.

What Sea Level Rise Looks Like for 24 US Cities 0413

What Sea Level Rise Looks Like for 24 US Cities 0413 - WEB

Excerpts:    0 Feet                       +5 Feet                         +12 Feet                        +25 Feet             

Maps of Regional Sea Level Rise Variation 0213

Sea Level Rise Making Floods Routine for Coastal Cities 1014

Rising Tide of Discord 0113

Sea Level to Rise Despite More Snow in East Antarctica 1212

Seas to Rise 0.2 - 2.0 Meters by 2100 - NOAA 1212

Sea Level Rise to 2100 - NOAA 1212 - PDF

Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change - Hansen 1212 - PDF, in Springer book

Climate Downgrade- Sea Level Rise 1112

Sea Levels Rising 60% Faster Than IPCC Projections 1112

Sea Level Rise from Polar Ice Quantified 1112 

US East Coast to Be Early Casualty of Rising Seas 0812 

Sea Levels Rose Quickly 14K Years Ago 0612 

2ºC Warming Could Trigger Catastrophic Sea-Level Rise 1211

US Atlantic Sea Levels Rising Fastest in at Least 2000 Years 0611 

Sea Level 10-40 M Higher in Mid-Pliocene (~ 3 Mya) 0411

Indian Ocean Rising 0710 

1.4 Meter Sea Level Rise Likely by 2100 as Antarctic Ice Melts 1209 

15 Million Years Ago Says 380 ppm CO2 => Seas 25+ Meters Higher 1009 

Stern's Bad News from Copenhagen 0309 - sea level rise, food shortages

Seas Will Rise 1 Meter This Century 1008

3.3-3.0 Million Years Ago, Sea Levels Usually +30 to -30 Meters from Today's 1008 - PDF

Sea Level Rise May Be 2x IPCC # 1207

% Area & Pop Less Than 10 Meters Above Sea, World & Regions 0407 - PDF

Sea Level 3 Million Years Ago - Dowsett 1090


Oceans - Carbon Sink

CO2 Sinks Fading 1107

100 K Years to Recover from CO2 Spike 1107

N Atlantic CO2 Sink Failing 1007

Oceans - Acidification

The 3 maps (and text) below, about CaCO3 concentrations in the oceans, are from the US EPA.

     "Corals require the combination of temperature, light, and the presence of calcium carbonate, which they use to build skeletons.  As atmospheric CO2 levels rise, some of the excess CO2 dissolves into ocean water, reducing its calcium carbonate saturation.
     "As the maps indicate, calcium carbonate saturation has already been reduced considerably from its pre-industrial level.  Model projections suggets much greater reductions in the future.  The
blue dots indicate current coral reefs."  EPA

North Atlantic Doubles Carbon Intake 0216

Environmental Change Rate Unprecedented, Study Says 0116

Stop Burning Fossil Fuels Now - There Is No CO2 ‘Technofix', Scientists Warn 0815

Ocean Acidity Rising 10 x Faster Than Ever in 55+ Million Years 1113

Ocean Acidification Threatens to Change Entire Marine Ecosystem 1013

Ocean Chemical Cycles Will Be Upset by Climate Change 0913

Oceans Are Acidifying the Fastest in 300 Million Years 0813

Ocean Acidification Makes Plankton Emit Less Cloud-Seeding Compounds 0813

Ocean Acidification Update 0813

Arctic Ocean Acidifying Rapidly 0513 

Key Experiment Probes a Future Acid Ocean 0513 

Ocean Acidification Accelerated in Nutrient-Rich Areas (Take #1) 0912 

Ocean Acidification Threatens Food Security (Take #2) 0912 

Oceans Are Acidifying Fastest in 300 Million Years 0312 

Oceans 30% More Acid Than 1800 0410 

Rate of Ocean Acidification Fastest in 65 Million Years 0210 

Acid Ocean Thins Marine Shells 0409 

Ocean Is Turning Acidic Fast 0109 

Southern Ocean Acidification to Hit Tipping Point 30 Years Earlier 1108 

Deep Ocean Acidifies 0508 

pH Change of Ocean 0207 

Oceans - Effects on Life

Ocean's Oxygen Starts Running Low 0516

Global Warming Could Deplete the Oceans’ Oxygen, with Severe Consequences 0416

     Deoxgenation due to climate change is already detectable in some parts of the ocean.

     New research from NCAR finds that it will likely become widespread between 2030 and 2040.
     Other parts of the ocean, shown in gray, will not have detectable loss of oxygen due to climate change even by 2100.
(Image courtesy Matthew Long, NCAR.)

Failing Phytoplankton, Failing Oxygen - Global Warming Could Suffocate Life on Earth 1215

Scientists Fear Toxic Algae Bloom Spreading on Pacific Coast 0815

Massive Ocean Oxygen Loss from Melting Ice, Warming, 10-17 Millennia Ago 0115

As Climate Warms, More Outbreaks of Disease for Sea Life 1114

Volcanic Vents Model CO2 Acid Future - 30% Biodiversity Loss 0212

Oceans Are Dying 0610

19% of Coral Reefs Gone, Rest Going 2108

Warm Seas Hurt Plankton 1206

Adding CO2 Damages Ocean Life 0706 

Acid Ocean Destroys Diatoms 0406 

Oceans - Circulation, Oxygen & Other

The Oceans’ Circulation Hasn’t Been This Sluggish in 1,000 Years 0418

Fast-Melting Arctic Is Already Messing with the Ocean’s Circulation 0318

Dire Ocean Scenario Is Stark Reminder of Why We Must Stop Climate Change 0318

Low Oxygen Levels Getting Worse in Oceans 0118

Oceans Suffocating, as Huge Dead Zones Quadruple since 1950 - 0118

Breakthrough Could Help Predict a Catastrophic Loss of Ocean Oxygen 0817

Cooling Patch in North Atlantic Presages Slowing Ocean Circulation 0817

Ocean Oxygen Decline Greater than Predicted 0517

Climate Change Is Literally Turning the Arctic Ocean Upside Down 0417 - warm salty water below, fresh icy water above

Drastic Cooling in North Atlantic beyond Worst Fears, Scientists Warn 0217

New Studies Show Rex Tillerson Is Wrong about Climate Risks 0117 - One study (below) shows Gulf Strem will slow / stop.

Global Ocean Circulation More Vulnerable to Shutdown than We Thought 0117

Greenland Ice Melt Could Push Atlantic Circulation to Collapse 0117

How Climate Change Could Jam the World's Ocean Circulation 0916

Southern Ocean Is Getting Less Salty.  What That Means for the Rest of Earth 0816

US East Coast Snowstorms Linked to Slowdown of Atlantic Current 0116

Concerns Deepen about a Climate-Change ‘Wild Card’ 0915 - slowdown & stop in global thermohaline circulation

Going with the Flow - Scientists Probe Changes in the East Australian Current 0515

How Tiny Sea Animals Affect Ocean Currents 0914

Desert Dust Feeds Deep Ocean Life 0714

Scientists Warn of 'Deadly Trio' Risk to Ailing Oceans 1013 - acidification, warming, oxygen depletion

Warming Oceans Will Affect the Planet's Poorest 1013

Climate Change Moves Nemo Current to the South 1013

Lower Ocean Salinity Intensifies Rain Extremes 0412

Huge Growing Pool of Arctic Water Could Cool Europe 0112 

World Oceans in Shocking Decline 0611 

80% of Pacific Islands Not Shrinking 0610 

Gulf Stream Is Not Slowing Down 0310

Warming Cuts Ocean Oxygen Content 0508 


Groundwater - Water Tables

       The diagram at right suggests how rising seas can cause ground-water to become salty.

     Salinity intrusion is already a severe problem in Bangladesh.

     It is a serious problem in many other countries, including Vietnam, Egypt, Tanzania, Senegal, Micronesia, even Florida and Louisiana.  (See Sea Rise impacts page.)

Climate Change Key Suspect in the Case of India’s Vanishing Groundwater 0317

What You Need to Know About the World's Water Wars 0716

Energy-Water Nexus Issues Heighten in the Face of Climate Change 0716

Groundwater Forum Warns of Severe Drought in South Asia 0616

Europe Is Parched, in a Sign of Times to Come 0915

Scarred Riverbeds and Dead Pistachio Trees in a Parched Iran 1215

Earth's Largest Groundwater Aquifers Are Past ‘Sustainability Tipping Points’ 0615

mm of H2O / yr

   -20    -15    -10     -6      -4       -2      -1        0       2        3       5       10      25  .

below left, from J.S. Famiglietti, “The global groundwater crisis”, Nature Climate Change, Oct. 29, 2014.

     The Canning River flows to Perth.  The Central Valley is California’s.  The Guarani Basin is south of Brasilia, east of Asunción and Santa Fe, west of São Paulo and Curitiba, and north of Montevideo.
     170 mm of water loss from Guarani's Aquifer approximates 200 cu km, 130 mm lost from the US Southern Plains almost 25 cu km, and north China's 170 mm loss since 2004 about 20 cu km.  Northwest India lost 109 cu km from Aug. 2002 to Oct. 2008.

NASA Launches Satellite to Monitor Planet’s Soil Moisture Content 0115

NASA Warns Earth's Fresh Groundwater Reserves Are Disappearing 0115

Kale or Fracking?  Farmers and Corporations Fight It Out for Water 1114

'Shocking' Underground Water Loss in US Drought 0714

In Texas Drought, Abbott Keeps Lawn Green by Drilling 1113

Africa Faces Water Crisis Despite Discovery of Huge Aquifers 1013

Groundwater Wake-Up - Asia, US, etc 0813

Groundwater Depletion in the United States (1900−2008) - USGS / Kownikov 0513 - abstract     "Estimated groundwater depletion in the United States during 1900–2008 totals approximately 1,000 cubic kilometers (km3).  Furthermore, the rate of groundwater depletion has increased markedly since about 1950.  Maximum rates occurred during the most recent period (2000–2008), when the depletion rate averaged almost 25 km per year (compared to 9.2 km3 per year averaged over the 1900–2008 timeframe).”  Or 7.8 km3 per year from 1900 to 2000.  Before 2000-2008, depletion rates were next fastest over 1951-1980, at 15.1 km3) per year (from full study, below).

Groundwater Depletion in the United States (1900−2008) - USGS / Kownikov 0513 - PDF, 75 pp

Latest Casualty of Drought May Be US Aquifers 0513

Ogallala Aquifer in Texas Panhandle Suffers Big Drop 0513

Drop in US Underground Water Levels Has Accelerated 0513

Texas Groundwater Levels Suffer Sharp Drop 0513

Ogalalla Farmers Watching Their Water Use 1012

Groundwater Trends - UNESCO / van der Grun 0712 - PDF, 44 pages
     See 6 excerpts below: 1) world map of abstraction intensity, 2) top 10 abstraction nations, 3) abstraction by continent and use, 4) trends for 8 top depleting nations, 5) trends for aquifers, and 6) trends for countries (mm sea level rise).

 
*Estimated based on IGRAC (2010), AQUASTAT (n.d.), EUROSTAT (n.d.), Margat (2008) & Siebert et al. (2010).
**Average of the 1995 and 2025 'business as usual scenario' estimates by Alcamo
et al. (2003).

Thus, groundwater depletion has accounted for about 5% of the 250 mm in sea level rise since 1900.

Groundwater Changes in California - Kuss 0312 - PDF





     This shows a trend of losing 2.6 cu km of groundwater per year in California.






Growing Water Deficit Threatening Grain Harvests 0711

California Water Loss - 30 Cubic Km in 5 Years 1209        Irrigation Depletes India’s Groundwater - 54 Cu Km per Year 0809

     North India's maximum groundwater loss rate is almost 2 inches per year, but much of central California's is 15-45 inches per year, up to 100 inches in one small area.  But the affected area in north India is much larger.

Ground Water Levels in Ogallala Aquifer - USGS 0699 - PDF   Water & Groundwater in China 0308 (image not from article)

            changes from ~1930 to 1997-98 (not 2008)              Gray shows water table at least 40 meters lower than in 1960.

Cross hatching shows 20-40 meters loss.




World's Water Tables Falling Fast 0607





Groundwater - General

How Climate Change Will Mess with Water ‘Recharge’ in Western U.S. 1117

As Global Groundwater Disappears, Rice, Wheat, Other Crops May Start to Vanish 0417

Vital Groundwater Depleted Faster than Ever 0417 - trade in thirsty crops

Africa Droughts Prompt Calls to Start Pumping Untapped Groundwater 0816

What Happens to the Great Plains When the Water's Gone? 0716

Groundwater Depletion Adding to Global Sea-Level Rise 1215

Scarred Riverbeds and Dead Pistachio Trees in a Parched Iran 1215 - country is turning to more desert

New Map of Earth's Groundwater to Help Estimate When It May Run Out 1115

California Could Be the Next Saudi Arabia – of Water 1115

Why Fresh Water Shortages Will Cause the Next Great Global Crisis 0315

The Southwest’s Most Important Number - Vapor Pressure Deficit 0115

Probing the Unknowns of What Warming Does to the Earth's Fertility 0115

California Needs to Overhaul Its Groundwater Protection 0714

Groundwater Pumping Propping Up Farms in California Drought 0714

Water Planners Focus on Bigger Texas, Not a Hotter One 0714

In Drought, Water War in California Fought Underground 0913

With Tar Sands Development (& Fracking), Growing Concern on Water Use 0813 

Shrinking Aquifers in Drought-Stricken Areas 0613

Farm Subsidies Increase Water Use 0613

Rains or Not, India Struggles for Water 0313 

‘Mining’ Groundwater Could Fuel Climate Change 0213

Jakarta Sinking as Water Supplies Dry Up 1212 

Harder Rains in Warmer World May Better Recharge Groundwater 1112 

Pumping Groundwater Raises Sea Level 0512 

Huge Ground Water under Africa 0412

Groundwater Depletion Perilously Accelerates Worldwide 0910 

Kansas Groundwater Acidifies 1108


Hurricanes - General

graph at left: from draft 2013 US National Climate Assessment

This Is What Happens when the Hurricane Hits Miami in 2037. - 1217

Atlantic Hurricanes' Rapid Growth Spurts Are Intensifying 1217

Climate Change Made Hurricane Harvey's Rainfall Worse, Study Finds 1217

Ophelia, Strongest Eastern Atlantic Hurricane on Record, Roars toward Ireland 1017

Era of Monster Hurricanes Roiling the Atlantic 1017

Huge Rain Was Clear Climate Change Sign in Hurricanes Maria, Irma, and Harvey 0917

Hurricanes - a Perfect Storm of Chance and Climate Change? 0917

Hurricanes Release Energy of 10,000 Nuclear Bombs 0917

Fires, Heat Waves, Hurricanes - Why This Summer's Extreme Weather Is Here to Stay 0917

Twin Mega-Storms Have Scientists Fearing This May Be the New Normal 0917

Texas Sees Harvey’s Damage at Up to $180 Billion 0917

Katrina, Sandy, Harvey - the Climate-Hurricanes Debate Gets Louder and Louder 0817

Future Hurricanes Will Be Worse than Harvey 0817

Did Climate Change Intensify Hurricane Harvey? 0817

Harvey’s Incredible Rains in Southeast Texas; Flood Emergency in Houston 0817

A Texas Newsroom Predicted a Disaster.  Now It’s Close to Coming True. 0817

imagine - 1.5 Million in Evacuation Gridlock as a Hurricane Aims at Tampa Bay 0517

This Is How You Create a Record-Breaking Hurricane 1016

Landfalling Typhoons Have Become More Intense 0916

Winston, Southern Hemisphere’s Strongest Storm on Record, Punishes Fiji 0216

Global Warming Linked to Greater Number of Hurricanes near Hawaii 1115

Cyclone Chapala Hits 155 mph - 2nd Strongest Storm in Arabian Sea History 1015

Historic Hurricane Patricia's Record 200 MPH Winds, Heavy Rains, Landfall 1015

21 Hurricanes and Typhoons in 2015 Shattered the Record 1015

We May Get Hurricanes ‘Unlike Anything You’ve Seen in History’ 0815 - very rare super worst cases

Rising Seas, Storm Surge, Rain Raise Severe Flooding Risk in Biggest US Cities 0715

Sandy Caused Record Sea Levels, $23 Billion Damages in New York State 0715

Hurricanes Are Becoming Fewer -- But More Intense 0515

Experts Tie Hurricane Changes to Climate Change 0515 - above study + others

Hurricanes Come in Bunches and Could Get Stronger 0515

Climate Change Blamed as Vanuatu Recovers from ‘Monster’ Storm 0315

$9.7 Trillion Problem- Cyclones and Climate Change 1014

2013 US Hurricane Season Ends with a Whimper 1013

'Brown Ocean' Can Fuel Tropical Cyclones Inland 0713

Stormier Paradise to Come in Hawaii 0513                                             

Risks Rise of Hurricanes Like Sandy 0113

Extreme Cyclones Linked to Warming Seas 1212 

Extreme Hurricanes Hit US Oftener 1012

below: damage from Hurricane Sandy, New Jersey coast

Air Pollution Intensifies Cyclone Activity 1111 

De-Greening Oceans Decreases Hurricanes 0810 

Hurricanes Most Frequent in 1,000 Years 0809 

More Hurricanes = Fewer Winter Storms 0409 

Mighty Hurricanes Get Mightier 0908 

Warming to Spawn Fewer Hurricanes 0508

Hurricanes Perspective 1107

Cyclones (40 Yrs) Intensify - Huber 0606

Warming & Hurricane $, Insurers Report 0905






More Category 4-5 Hurricanes - Webster 0905

Hurricane Intensity - Webster 0905 - PDF







Hurricanes & Insurance $ 0805




Hurricane Energy Tracks Ocean Temps 0805

Hurricanes: Patterns in Intensity - Emanuel 0805  - PDF




Hurricanes & Warming - Knutson 0705



Lakes

Vanishing Dead Sea 0218

Some of the World's Biggest Lakes Are Drying Up.  Here's Why. 0218

Ecological Catastrophe Turned a Vast Bolivian Lake into a Salt Desert 0118

Why the Great Salt Lake Is Shrinking 1217

Scientists Think They Know Why the Caspian Sea Is Shrinking 0817

Can We Save Our Lakes from Global Warming? 0817

Parched Lanzhou, China Plans to Pipe Water 1,000 Km from Russia’s Lake Baikal 0317

Displaced Refugees Fear More Loss, as Lake Chad Shrinks 1116

Dead Sea Is Drying Out 1116

Utah's Great Salt Lake Is Drying Up at Alarming Rate – Satellites 1116

World’s Longest Lake Is Being Depleted of Life as Waters Warm 0816

Warming at Alarming Rate, Lake Tahoe Reflects Rapid Sierra Climate Change 0716

Lake Mead Declines to Lowest Level in History 0516

Saving Iran's Precious Lake Urmia 0416

El Niño Is Rapidly Filling California's Once-Dusty Reservoirs, Easing Drought 0316

Many of World’s Lakes Are Vanishing.  Some May Be Gone Forever.  0316

Will the Great Salt Lake Be Reduced to Dust? 0216

Rising Lake Temperatures May Worsen Algae Blooms 1215  -   0.61° per decade in world’s 235 largest lakes

Globally, Lakes Warming at an Alarming Rate 1215  - and up to 1.3°F per decade in northern latitudes

Great Lakes Could Face Similar Acidification Risk as the Seas 1215

On Thin Ice - Big Northern Lakes Are Being Rapidly Transformed 1115

Lake Baikal's Water Levels Drop to Record Low 0115

Climate Change Makes It Harder to Save Lake Erie 0914

Southwest Braces as Lake Mead Water Levels Drop 0814

Lake Mead Reservoir Drops to Record Low 0714

Alaska's Arctic Icy Lakes Lose Thickness 0214

With Great Lakes Stuck at Historic Lows, Talk Turns to Adapting 1013

Warming Lake Superior Prompts a Tribe to Try a New Fish 1013

Changing Clarity Reflects Climate Change at Lake Tahoe 0813

As Michigan Warms, Cotton Instead of Cherry and Grapes? 0713

Lake Michigan's Record Low Begins a New Era for Great Lakes? 0713

The red line is Lake Michigan-Huron's average water level since 1918.

Carbon Acidification Could Harm Great Lakes Wildlife 0713

Falling Great Lakes Water Levels Fall Take Toll on Shipping 0613 

Lakes Mead and Powell May Dry Up within Decades 0213

2 Great Lakes Hit Record Low Water 0213

Record Low Water in Lake Michigan 0113

Wisconsin Lakeshore Communities Struggle with Low Water Levels 1212 

Reservoir Lake Effect Can Worsen Local Flooding 1212 

Warming, Variabiity Drive Near-Record Low Water in Great Lakes 1112 

Lake Michigan Water at Record Low 1012 


Rivers

from 2013 draft US National Climate Assessment
----------------------------------------------

from Dai's "Rivers Discharge, 1948-2004 -Dai 1108".  It is available below.

     Vobs is the river volume, in cubic kilometers per year, at the station indicated.

      bobs is the trend per year over the 1945-2005 period.  Bold is statistically significant.

Rising CO2 Is Affecting Freshwater 3 Times Faster than Saltwater 0118

Ganges under Threat from Climate Change 1017 - retreat of Gangtori glacier, Ganges headwaters, sewage, etc.

China Diverts 10 Billion Cubic Meters of Water to Arid North, in Massive Project 1017

Tagus River, Spain’s Longest, at Risk of Drying Up Completely 0817

How Climate Change Might Affect the Nile 0817

Billion-Dollar Dams Are Making Water Shortages, Not Solving Them 0617

Western Water Crunch Has Climate Change Fingerprints 0417

Thick Ice Formations in Arctic Rivers Are Melting Earlier in Summer 0417

Source of Mekong, Yellow and Yangtze Rivers Drying Up 0317

Congo Risks 50% Power Drop, due to Low Rainfall, Record Low Congo River 0317

Parched Lanzhou, China Plans to Pipe Water 1,000 Km from Russia’s Lake Baikal 0317

Global Warming Is Shrinking Colorado River, Vital to 40 Million People 0217

Wildlife Dying En Masse as South American River Runs Dry 0716

Montana’s Rivers Are Warmer than They Should Be - Bad News for Trout 0716

India to ‘Divert Rivers' to Tackle Drought 0516

Lao Hydro Dam to Seriously Affect Vietnam’s Mekong Delta 1214

Clear Skies Could Empty Rivers 1014

Climate Change Reflected in Altered Missouri River Flow, USGS Says 0814

Rio Grande May Hit 40-Year Low 0414

River Thames Breaks January Records for Water Flows 0214

Could Weakening Winds Threaten Pacific Northwest's Mountain Water Supply? 1213

Ecologists Link Far East Floods to Global Warming 0813

Russia Evacuates 19,000 from Flooded Far East 0813 -  also under Flood Impacts

With Tar Sands Development, Growing Concern on Water Use 0813 - also above under Groundwater

Warming Bad for Life in Freshwater Lakes and Rivers 0613 

Canada's 'Northern Amazon' (Mackenzie) on the Brink 0613 

Climate Change Impact on Stream Flow Varies by Location 0213

     Dai's 1108 graphs below show that flows in the Ganges/Brahmaputra and Mekong Rivers approach zero (8% of peak) during the dry season.  The Indus, Yellow, Salween, and Irawaddy Rivers face similar problems.  All depend heavily on monsoon rains, but during the dry season on meltwater from the Himalayas.  The same can be said, but more weakly, of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River.  This makes them vulnerable to running out of water during years when flow is low, or when Himalayn glaciers vanish.

     Flows also are very low (4-8% of peak) in the Yenisey and Lena rivers, but during the frozen season.  Flows change more for the Orinoco River between the rainy and dry seasons than they do for the Amazon.  Flows in the Congo and Parana Rivers are not very sensitive to season.

      Year-to-year variability ranges from 6:1 for the Uruguay River and 3:1 for the Mississippi, Niger and Xi Rivers, to 1.4:1 for the Amazon River.  Years with low water flows in some rivers leave them at risk of running dry.

Mississippi River Drops to 3 Feet 1212

Engineers Clear Rocks from Dried Mississippi 1212

Mississippi River Faces Shipping Freeze as Water Levels Drop 1212 

Water Piped to Denver Could Ease Stress on River 1212

World Rivers Under Siege 1112

Climate Change to Reduce US Southwest Water Supply 0411 

Earth's Water Cycle is Changing Rapidly 1010 

Floods and Mudslides on 3 Continents 0810

Rivers Discharge 1948-2004 - Dai 1108 - PDF

            Below are Dai's graphs showing annual discharge into the world's ocean basins.  Discharge into the Arctic Ocean rose, while into the Pacific and Indian Oceans it fell.




from Changing Northeast Climate - UCS 1006, for Northeast US











River Runoff & Evaporate - Dai 1202 - pdf

Air

Climate Change in Minnesota - More Heat, More Big Storms 0215

Added Atmospheric Water Vapor Adding to Global Warming 0714

How Australia's Big Wet Befuddled Scientists 0813

Water Vapor Does 2/3 of Warming 1108

When It Rains, It Pours - Madsen 1207 - PDF 

Water in Air - Santer 0907 - PDF


by Gene Fry 2017